Wang Ye said financial news: To say that the recent US stock market is rising quite fiercely, specific 3 major stock indexes to see:
As of Friday, the S&P 500 was up 1.3% weekly, closing at 4605.38, the fourth consecutive week of gains and the longest rally since April, and its monthly line closed up 6.9%, the largest monthly increase since November 2020.
Meanwhile, the Dow Jones also rose 0.4 percent weekly and closed up 5.8 percent monthly, its biggest monthly gain in March.
The Nasdaq index rose 2.7% week-on-week, closing higher for the fourth consecutive week, and surged 7.3% month-on-month, the best monthly performance since November 2020.
As above, although last week, the US stock market hit a record high, but the experts warned that the good days of the US stock market seem to be coming to an end!
Because even most of the well-known wall street leaders began to expect that at the end of this year, the US stock market will appear "melt-up" phenomenon, and next year may reverse and fall, and the correction range may reach 10%.
The wall street chief is mostly the head of equity strategy at Wells Fargo Securities – Chris Harvey!
On the one hand, Harvey predicts that by the end of 2021, the S&P 500 index will rise to 4825 points!
Harvey explained: "Given the strong economic fundamentals, better-than-expected earnings, lower cost of capital and a lot of over-the-counter funding, these are all driving the U.S. stock market to continue to rise this year." ”
On the other hand, he also warned that the US stock rally will not always continue like this, and from 2022, the US stock market will begin to fall sharply.
Harvey said: "You're going to take stocks to their unsustainable highs, we're going to see stocks 'melt up,' and we're going to take stocks to highs where both fundamentals and valuations can't support them." ”
So the question arises: Why isn't Harvey optimistic about next year's U.S. stocks?
Harvey gives 3 reasons for this, specifically:
Harvey believes that starting in the second quarter of next year, U.S. stocks may be affected by a series of "headwinds" factors, in particular: 1) the Fed raises interest rates; 2) U.S. inflation continues to rise; 3) U.S. economic growth will slow.
Under the combined effect of the above 3 factors, the US stock market may fall by about 10%.
Harvey said: "What we see from a lot of retail investors and investors is that they feel that the market is unbreakable at this time. We have pulled back a few times, and the trend is a bit tortuous, but it has never broken, which also makes the 'fear of missing out (FOMO)' market reach another level, and also makes the investment confidence reach a certain level.
Finally, Harvey warned that the bull market has come to an end, and now it has come to a stage where irrationality becomes reasonable, and investors did not expect what would happen, and it is likely to happen.
Harvey said: "Although I hate this statement (US stocks are down 10%), anyway, I still have to tell you this, get out of hand in May, and then leave, that's it. ”
What do you think about that? What do you think will happen to the U.S. stock market next?
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