With the harvest of corn and rice, the market situation has also begun a new transformation, especially in the context of weak new grain acquisitions, corn prices have also begun to fall, and rice continues to continue its downturn. Wheat, which should have been lower, is rising, but now that the auction of 1 million tons is imminent, the market grain price may usher in a big change.
<h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" data-track="3" >01, corn is facing 3 major crises</h1>
It can be seen from the recent market that the price of corn fluctuates and fluctuates, but the overall market is weak and unsatisfactory. The early corn market can be described as ushering in a wave of high, but accompanied by new corn listings, and its quality is not satisfactory, the moisture is high, it is not suitable for building a warehouse, and the company's procurement willingness is insufficient, and the result is that its market has fallen one after another.
At the same time, today's farmers are more enthusiastic about grain production, and they want to desperately throw their hands on corn, which also inhibits the market. From the perspective of the Shandong market, the price can be described as rising and falling, such as the seven-star lemon fell by 1 point, the price was 1.345 yuan / jin; Zhucheng Yuanfa fell 1 point, the price was 1.275 yuan / jin; Zhucheng Xingmao fell by 1 point, the price was 1.295 yuan / jin; Xiangchi Jianyuan fell by 1 point, the price was 1.28 yuan / jin; Chengwu Dadi fell 2 points, the price was 1.26 yuan / jin.
However, Linqing Golden Corn rose by 1.5 points at a price of 1.26 yuan / catty; Xiangrui Pharmaceutical rose by 1 point at a price of 1.29 yuan / catty; Feicheng Fukuan rose by 1 point, the price was 1.255 yuan / catty.
In general, Shandong fell more and rose less, mainly because there were more arriving vehicles, up to more than 770 vehicles, more corn listings, and the price suppression of enterprises was relatively large.
In the northeast, the market has shown a stable and falling situation, mainly because of the recent listing of new corn, and the market has entered a trough period. The northern region of China is generally stable, because the price is low, and the willingness of farmers to sell grain is not high.
Today, the average price of corn has fallen to 1.241 yuan / catty, mainly due to the sluggish market demand, enterprises are mostly used as they go, and the willingness to buy is not high, so the price pressure mentality is relatively strong.
At present, corn still faces 3 major crises, the first is that the inventory of wheat and rice is large, especially the rice inventory is more than 100 million tons, and the auction price is about 1.2 yuan, which is more cost-effective than corn, thereby inhibiting its price. Secondly, imported corn is more, this year is expected to import about 28 million tons, more than last year's 2.5 times, and sorghum, barley market also began to fall, is not conducive to corn prices.
Of course, this year's planting area has expanded significantly, so even if parts of North China are affected, the total output still maintains a bumper harvest, which is naturally not conducive to the corn market, and the price is inevitable.
Next corn trend, but also need to see the state of demand of enterprises, it is expected that the market in the short term is afraid to continue to fall, want to rise need to wait until November, but the recent corn prices are low, the risk of building a warehouse is not large, traders can seize the opportunity.
<h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" data-track="24" >02, wheat auction is coming</h1>
Recently, the wheat market policy has been frequently introduced, such as the minimum purchase price of wheat in 2022 rose by 2 points again, rising to 1.15 yuan, which makes wheat farmers very excited about this, although this year's wheat is high and high, the opening price is 1.2-1.25 yuan, but whether the market can continue to rise next year is still unknown.
Since the end of September, wheat has once again ushered in a wave of sharp rise, and the current north China has risen to more than 1.33 yuan, while the Shaanxi region has risen to 1.35-1.38 yuan / catty, it can be said that such a price is very surprising.
Of course, the strong wheat market can also encourage people to sow wheat, after all, this year's winter wheat sowing is postponed, and the next year's harvest is unknown. From the official test, the soil moisture in Henan is 72%, and in Shandong and Hebei is 56%-57%, and the humidity is high, and the planting will inevitably be affected.
Affected by the recent cooling rainfall, the amount of wheat has also decreased, but the demand for flour has increased, the orders of flour enterprises have increased, and the enthusiasm for the purchase of wheat is higher, so the wheat price is still considerable, Shaanxi Jinshahe has risen to a high price of 1.385 yuan, and Shandong Jinxiyan has also risen to 1.37 yuan, which is getting closer and closer to the 1.4 yuan mark.
However, now the official statement, October 20 will start the policy auction, the first auction for 1 million tons, and only noodle enterprises, feed enterprises to participate, the arrival of this policy, did not affect the price of wheat, today's developed east, west, plain, Liaocheng branch are rebounded 1 point, the price is 1.345 yuan / jin; good noodle edge Weinan rose 1 point, the price of 1.38 yuan / jin.
However, some people said that with the arrival of policy auctions, wheat prices may begin to fall, after all, the release of policy grains will certainly alleviate the pressure on wheat stocks.
<h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" data-track="25" >03, how about rice? </h1>
Compared with the frequent fluctuations of the corn and wheat markets, the changes in the rice market are relatively stable and weak, the overall market is not falling, and the rice in some areas has fallen below the market price, and it is expected that it will not be long before the market will be launched.
This year's market has fallen, in the final analysis, the new rice ushered in a bumper harvest, harvests everywhere, but in fact, last year there was a lot of production capacity, so that rice has been sluggish since the beginning of the year, and the old rice inventory of rice enterprises can be digested until the end of the year. Now that it has ushered in a bumpy harvest, the willingness to harvest rice is not strong, and as a result, its market has declined continuously.
In the context of de-capacity, the next rice enterprise market or continue to decline, new rice procurement is more and more cautious, is not conducive to the later price, rice farmers should be psychologically prepared.