Quotes roundup
In the foreign exchange market, the dollar bottomed out and rebounded back to the 94-point integer level in one fell swoop, recovering the trend of several days of decline and decline, and finally closed at 94.122 points, an increase of 0.83%. The euro suffered a heavy decline during the session and returned to running below 1.16 points, closing lower at 1.1562 points, or -1.01%. USD/JPY bottomed out and rebounded above the 114 round, closing at 114.13, or 0.4%. USD/CAD bottomed out, closing at 1.2386, or 0.33%. GBP/USD fell sharply lower, closing lower at 1.3686, or -0.74%. AUD/USD rushed higher and retreated, closing lower at 0.752 points, or -0.31%. The USD/YUAN offshore exchange rate bottomed out and closed higher at 6.4057, up 0.26%. Looking at the overall trend of the foreign exchange market, the US dollar recently ended the downward trend and rebounded upwards, and the trend of non-US currencies generally fell back.
In the precious metals market, gold fell sharply, returned to below $1780 and fell back again, and finally closed back to near $1782.8082 / ounce, a decline of -0.91% (domestic futures gold closed at 369.48 yuan / g, a decline of -0.61%). Silver fell slightly back below $24, closing at $23.88/oz (domestic futures silver closed at $4874/kg, down -0.65%). Overall, the gold and silver rally is hopeless and there is a trend of continued decline.
Basic analysis of the foreign exchange market
The United States has the following factors influencing the rebound of the dollar index, first, the United States released a September personal report of 0.6% monthly, flat expectations but lower than the previous value of 0.8%; the United States September PCE price index at 4.4%, flat expectations and above the previous value of 4.3%, the fastest growth rate since January 1991. In September, the core PCE rose 0.2% month-on-month and 3.6% year-on-year, continuing the highest level in nearly 30 years, and the continuous rise of the core PCE will urge the Fed to reduce debt. The U.S. Chicago PMI for October was 68.4, above expectations of 63.5 and the previous 64.7; the core data was the final value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index at 71.7 in October, above market expectations and the previous value of 71.4. Secondly, in response to the problem of the continuous rise in core PCE prices in the United States, Goldman Sachs economist Jan Hatzius pointed out in a report to customers that the current shortage of production capacity in the United States, strong demand, tight supply in the short term led to inflation expectations continue to heat up, it is expected that the Fed's huge asset purchase program will be reduced shortly after the suspension of the benchmark interest rate from 0-0.25% range; and even the Fed is expected to raise interest rates for the second time in November 2022, followed by two interest rate hikes per year. Third, Bank of America's Global Research Department said on Friday that large swings in interest rate markets dominate the foreign exchange markets of G10 countries. Along with abrading inflation concerns, the dollar is expected to remain higher in the near term. Taken together, the dollar rally establishes an upward trend in the medium to long term rebound.
The euro area is influenced by the trend of the euro, first, the euro area's preliminary quarter-adjusted GDP is 2.2%, higher than the market expectation of 2.1%, flat than the previous value; the euro area's Q3 quarter-adjusted GDP preliminary GDP is 3.7%, higher than the market expectation of 3.5%, but below the previous performance of 14.3%. Second, the Eurozone's preliminary October CPI was 0.8% m/m, above market expectations and the performance of the previous 0.5% performance; the Eurozone's core CPI for October was 4.1%, above market expectations of 3.7% and 3.4% previous. Second, a survey of companies released by the European Central Bank on Friday showed that more than 30 percent of companies surveyed expect supply constraints and higher input costs to persist for another year or more. A slightly smaller percentage of businesses expect the difficulties to continue for another six to 12 months, exacerbating inflation concerns. Negative for the long-term movement of the euro.
ACCORDING TOC analysis, as Europe adopts the language of maintaining the tone of loose monetary policy unchanged, the weakness of the euro and the strength of the dollar index will be verified under the pressure of tightening the easing and the pressure of the Us federal reserve to tighten the easing and add sound interest rates to the US PCE core price index. The current trend needs to wait for the Fed's interest rate meeting on November 2-3, and the dollar has begun to show a strong upward trend before the Fed interest rate meeting.
Fundamental analysis of precious metals
From the analysis of the main influencing factors of the market, the following aspects have a great impact on the price trend of precious metals.
First, the U.S. reported a September report of 0.6% m/m, flat expectations but below the previous 0.8%, and the US PCE Price Index for September was 4.4% y/y, flat and above the previous 4.3%, the fastest pace since January 1991. In September, the core PCE rose 0.2% month-on-month and 3.6% year-on-year, continuing the highest level in nearly 30 years, and the continuous rise of the core PCE will urge the Fed to reduce debt. The U.S. Chicago PMI for October was 68.4, above expectations of 63.5 and the previous 64.7; the core data was the final value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index at 71.7 in October, above market expectations and the previous value of 71.4. The strength of the US dollar has a huge bearish impact on the trend of precious metals.
Second, U.S. 10-year Yields rose higher from a low of 0.91 percent this year, retreated after reaching a high of 1.77 percent, bottoming out at 1.17 percent in August and rebounding again. After a recent break of resistance to 1.6%, it reached 1.7% last week, and as of Monday morning, the 10-year Yield continued to fall from 1.7% to 1.573%, continuing to provide some support for gold and silver.
Third, the three major U.S. stock indexes closed on Friday and rose again across the board, with the Dow surging 89.08 points to close higher at 35,819.56. The NASDAQ rose 50.27 points to close higher at 15498.39. The S&P 500 rose 8.96 points, or 0.19%, to close at 4605.38; the top of the U.S. stock market began to edge higher again. BRICS Huitong believes that what currently supports US stocks is not the economic strength, but still the liquidity support brought by loose money. The final volatility of U.S. stocks will have to wait for the Fed's interest rate decision to be judged.
Fourth, the world's largest gold-backed ETF- SPDR position remained at 0.87t on October 28, with total holdings at 982.14t, ending two consecutive trading days of overweights. The world's largest silver ETF_iShares maintained its holdings of 69.09t on October 28, with total holdings at 17005.76t. At present, the silver ETF has continuously increased its holdings, which is conducive to the stabilization of silver prices.
Fifth, the dollar index returned to 94 points on Friday and saw a sharp rise, which is behind the continuous rise in inflation, the Federal Reserve will take strong tightening and easing and next year to raise interest rates; the implementation of these policies will guide the return of the dollar and enhance the risk aversion of international capital in the dollar, the risk exposure of international financial markets will expand rapidly, once the imbalance can easily prompt some countries to erupt into a financial crisis, and form a domino effect in the world, the impact of the potential support for the price trend of precious metals needs attention.
On the whole, the dollar broke through the 94-point resistance to stand on it, which constituted a huge bearish impact on the current precious metals, prompting the precious metal price to start another bottoming trend. The VIEW OFCS Huitong believes that precious metals have tried to run downwards out of the current wide range shock adjustment, and there is currently a trend of continued pressure to fall. However, regarding the general trend, our judgment on the operation of gold and silver continues to be based on buying in batches.
DOLLAR INDEX
After the previous sustained rise hit a high of 102.99 points, the shock fell all the way back lower, and after touching the low of 89.206 points, it began to oscillate upwards; the overall price ran above the MA200. The medium-term trend continues to maintain a volatile upward trend, and the price opens up the upside after breaking through the key resistance of 93 points. The current short-term market has a tendency to continue to rise.
EUR/USD
In the early stage, it stabilized at the low of 1.0635 at the end of March 2020 and began to rise; after hitting a high of 1.23495 points in January 2021, it continued to oscillate downward. The current trend is to fall back to stabilize the support of the medium- and long-term long-term watershed of 1.17 points, and after the second rebound higher and reach the top, the medium and long-term is in the downward trend of the downward adjustment. The overall movement of the pair formed a correction trend below the MA200 moving average. The current intraday short-term market has a tendency to continue to decline.
USD/JPY
In the early stage, it stabilized at the end of March 2020 at the low of 101.178 to open an upward trend, touching the high of 111.71 points and then falling back lower; after touching the low of 102.560 points in January 2021, the shock broke through the MA200 moving average resistance and repeatedly went higher; the medium- and long-term trend has returned to the high point of July 24. There is a trend that continues to rise during the current day.
GBP/USD
In the early stage, it stabilized at the low of 1.14078 at the end of March 2020 to open an upward trend, breaking through the key resistance of the MA200 moving average during the session and walking higher; after touching the high of 1.42493 points in June 2021, it began to oscillate lower, and the current medium-term trend continues to oscillate upwards. The current intraday market has a downward rebound trend.
AUD/USD
In the early stage, it stabilized at the low of 0.56618 at the end of March 2020 to start an upward trend; the intraday breakthrough of the key resistance of the MA200 moving average and walked higher; after hitting the high of 0.80072 points in February 2021, it began to oscillate lower, and stabilized at 0.7114 points at the end of August to start a rebound adjustment trend. The current intraday market has a downward correction trend.
USD/CNY
FOB began a downward trend from the May 2020 high of 7.1964 in the early period, and the intraday fall below the key support of the MA200 moving average and walked lower; it began to oscillate higher after hitting a low of 6.3477 points in May 2021. The current market has a trend of oscillation upwards during the day.
Spot gold
Gold prices rose from their previous low of $1445/oz, hitting a new high of 2075 before, falling back and then falling for more than 11 months. At present, the overall price is running around MA200, and the MACD indicator is weakly oscillating, forming a trend that continues to fall. The recent short-term $1830 is a key resistance for bulls, and the intraday short-term has a downward trend of volatility.
Spot silver
Silver fell back from a sharp drop near 19.64/oz, hitting a five-year low near $11.29, before the price rebounded all the way up, rising twice to $30 and then retreating. At present, the overall price is running below ma200, the MACD indicator stabilizes the weak shock, and the 60 moving average supports the fall below to open up the downside. Intraday short-term continues the downward correction trend.
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