Latest data! Maz has the highest baseline rate and the lowest Liners in Asia
Shun Tak Maritime Network Marlene
Global port congestion and container backlogs continue to have a negative impact on liner schedules. According to the latest data from Sea-Intelligence, the liner schedule for September is still at a 2021 low. Two-thirds of the world's liner fleets experience delays, and the number of delays remains at the highest level.
Alan Murphy, CEO of Sea-Intelligence, said: "There is no further decline in the liner schedule. The september 2021 level is close to the minimum limit, and the decline will be slower and slower, which is the only "good" news.
Data from Sea-Intelligence's monthly liner schedule report comes from 34 different trade routes and more than 60 liner companies around the world. In September, according to the company, the liner schedule increased by 0.6 percentage points from the previous month to 34%. At the same time, 6 of the world's top 14 liner companies have improved.
Compared to the same period last year, the liner schedule in September 2021 decreased by 22 percentage points. From the beginning of 2021 to the present, the monthly liner schedule is in the range of 34% to 40%, as shown in Figure 1.
Figure 1: Global liner schedule
The average delay time for container ships is 7.27 days, as shown in Figure 2. Murphy said that although it improved slightly, it was still very high. He noted that the focus for the entire year 2021 is on the delay time of container ships.
Figure 2: Average delay time for container ships
But we must acknowledge that liner companies have made many efforts to avoid port congestion and improve the rate of punctuality. In addition to adjusting individual voyages, several large liner companies have even chosen to skip major ports with high levels of congestion. In the case of Maersk, the company removed the uk's largest container port, the port of Felixstowe, from the port of call for the route of some large ships, and used feeder ships from other ports in Europe to deliver small batches to the port. Earlier this month, CGM and Hapag-Lloyd also said they would use a backup port due to congestion at the port of Savannah, Georgia. In addition, starting November 1, Maersk, Mediterranean and Israel will temporarily cancel the planned call of a shared route to the Port of Seattle.
Figure 3 is worldwide liner service performance data compiled by Sea-Intelligence, which distinguishes liner companies from their subsidiaries. The data shows that the accuracy rate varies greatly among several large liner companies around the world. As can be seen from Figure 3, Maersk still ranks first among the top 14 airlines, with a pre-schedule of 44.2% in September and COSCO ranking seventh at 20.4%, in the middle. Three are above 30% and five are above 20% (OOCL is a subsidiary of COSCO). Notably, six large liner companies from Asia have a schedule of less than 20 percent. In addition, the parish rate of six liner companies increased sequentially, but all liner companies except Maersk saw a year-on-year decline of more than 20%.
Figure 3: Liner company quasi-shift rate (solid line in 2021, dashed line in 2020)
That's worse than the data from a year ago. During the same period in 2020, maersk and Hamburg Süd (now a subsidiary of Maersk) reportedly had a punctuality rate of 66.7%. A total of 8 liner companies all reached 50%, and the worst performing liner companies were all more than 33.3%.
U.S. inventories hit record lows
The U.S. Census Bureau released its latest sales and inventory data for August 2021. As can be seen in the inventory-to-sales ratio, the relative inventory levels have been low since April 2021, especially between June 2020 and August 2020 and December to March 2021. That is to say, U.S. imports of goods are only enough to keep up with the pace of sales, but not enough to meet the inventory needs of U.S. retailers. Separate analysis of manufacturers, retailers and wholesalers shows that the inventory-to-sales ratio of manufacturers and wholesalers has been on a downward trend, and the inventory-to-sales ratio of retailers has been relatively stable since April 2021.
At the base inventory level, as shown in Figure 4, it can be seen that inventories for manufacturers and wholesalers continue to grow rapidly, higher than at any time since data was counted in 1992. However, inventory levels at retailers have been low.
Figure 4: Inventory-to-sales ratio of the three major supply chain sectors in the United States
Part of the problem with the U.S. supply chain also comes from the capacity of warehouses. In dollar terms, inventory size hit a record high of $2.08 trillion in August 2021, up 7.4 percent from August 2020 and 1.4 percent from August 2019. But why would a mere 1.4 percent increase in two years lead to problems with U.S. supply chains? Sea Intelligence believes that while the overall inventory size has not changed much, the departments that hold inventory have changed dramatically, with manufacturers and wholesalers increasing their inventory size by 6%-7% compared to August 2019 and 7%-13% compared to August 2020.
Sea Intelligence said this is likely to be part of the main cause of supply chain problems in the United States. Some departments have a rapid increase in inventory, so they need more storage space, which is held by departments that have not significantly increased inventory, resulting in a shortage of warehouses.