The "Raúl era" is over, and the new leadership continues Cuba's "renewal dream"?

The 4-day Eighth National Congress of the Communist Party of Cuba has just concluded. Through this congress of "unity and continuity", the Cuban Communist Party elected a new governing body, and a few days after Raúl Castro announced his official resignation as the party's supreme leader, the 61-year-old "young revolutionary" Díaz Canel was elected first secretary of the Party Central Committee. Over the past few days, the Western media have either talked about the "end of the Castro (brother) era" or speculated that Cuba will continue to be "Castro doctrine", and even some public opinion has exaggerated that the new and old leaders in Cuba are "very obvious" and that Cuba will "change the sky". These arguments seem to be divorced from the basic conditions of the Republic of Cuba and the changes raúl has tried to bring to Cuba over the past 15 years. Since Castro declared the beginning of the socialist revolution in 1961, Cuba has been subject to the blockade and sanctions of the United States and has long been a planned economic system. For Cuba, which covers an area of about 110,000 square kilometers and a population of 11.472 million, economic reform is the top priority, but as Raul stressed during the shift, the future rulers "cannot undermine the ideals of justice and revolutionary equality."

The Eighth National Congress of the Communist Party of Cuba opened in the capital, Havana, on the 16th of this month. At the meeting, Raúl Castro, the first secretary of the CPRC Central Committee, announced that he would step down as the party's supreme leader. Pictured here is Díaz-Canel.

"Raúl's policy of change will be remembered"

The Castro brothers led Cuba for 60 years, going through more than a dozen U.S. presidents. Time magazine commented: "Fidel Castro is the heart and soul of contemporary Cuba, and Raul Castro is the fist of revolution." On April 16, Raul, who will turn 90 in June, announced his official resignation as the party's top leader. International public opinion believes that this move marks the end of the "Castro era", but at the same time there is discussion, "whether Cuba will continue to be free of the 'Castro doctrine' of the Castro brothers." In the European and American media inventory, Raúl left five important achievements during his administration: breaking the ice in relations with the United States, lifting some of the island bans, promoting Internet use, implementing economic reforms, and setting limits on the power of cuban leaders.

On July 31, 2006, Castro transferred the country's supreme authority to Raul for health reasons. In 2008, Raúl formally succeeded Castro as Chairman of the Council of State and Chairman of the Council of Ministers, and proposed to update Cuba's economic and social development model by beginning a series of reforms, including the lifting of the ban on independent travel of Cubans abroad, allowing people to use mobile phones, buying and selling houses and vehicles, opening the door for Cubans in exile to return home, allowing people to use social networks and free access to political, cultural and recreational information. In March 2015, the first public place with free Wi-Fi appeared in Havana, cuba.

During Raúl's administration, a series of economic reform measures were also taken, including reducing the redundancy of the state sector, contracting idle land to collectives or individuals, expanding the scope of self-employed persons, enacting new foreign investment laws, opening a special zone for the development of the Maleers, and establishing non-agricultural and livestock cooperatives.

Outside analysis believes that Raúl's more than ten years in power as the supreme leader has opened an era of economic change in Cuba, and the ice-breaking relationship between the United States and Cuba that once appeared has also brought a stage of prosperity to Cuba's tourism industry. But Cubans are also well aware of the problems encountered in the country's development. Ricardo Torres, an economist at the Center for the Study of Cuban Economics at the University of Havana, said that Raúl started the process of "economic renewal", and due to many problems encountered in the implementation process, the actual results achieved were relatively limited, but Raúl opened "that commendable door". Brian Lataire, a former CIA analyst who wrote a book about the Castro brothers, said: "Raúl's years in power, despite resistance, the transformative policies he tried to implement will be remembered." ”

Raúl has led Cuba for nearly 15 years, completing the transition of old and new leadership through a number of changes. The adoption and implementation of Cuba's new constitution in 2019 will provide legal guarantees for the renewal of the Cuban model. In accordance with the provisions of the new Constitution of 2019 and the Electoral Law, Cuba has created a new presidency, the head of state elected by the deputies to the National People's Congress. In October of the same year, Díaz-Canel was elected Cuba's first President. In Raul's view, for more than two years, Díaz-Canel has strengthened the cohesion of the party and the country. In the eyes of Western public opinion, Raul has passed the torch to "young leaders with the same values."

"Responding to the worst economic crisis since the end of the Cold War"

When it comes to Cuba, tourism and U.S.-Cuba relations cannot be avoided. Tourism is an important pillar of Cuba's economic development and a "barometer" of changes in U.S.-Cuba relations. In December 2014, then-U.S. President Barack Obama announced a relaxation of restrictions on Cuba. In July 2015, the United States and Cuba officially resumed diplomatic relations, and the United States opened commercial flights and cruise ships to Cuba. After Obama's visit to Cuba in early 2016, there have been many distinct changes in Cuba.

In the cigar shops in havana, the capital, or the "five-cent tavern" and "Little Florida Bar" frequented by American writer Hemingway, in the past few years, tourists from Spain, Mexico, Argentina, the United States, Canada and other countries have often been seen. "U.S. tourists other than Cuban-American citizens" are reportedly the second largest source of international visitors after Canadian tourists. The wife of current U.S. President Joe Biden visited Cuba after the Obama administration eased travel restrictions and visited a local school.

When the Global Times reporter interviewed Cuba in 2019, it was the 500th anniversary of the founding of Havana, when many buildings, museums and characteristic blocks were being repaired, which showed that the Cuban government attached great importance to tourism, which wanted to attract more international tourists. Many private restaurants, snack bars, bakeries, souvenir shops, and barber shops are open to welcome guests, which not only brings convenience to tourists, but also allows cuban people to have more income. Juan, a Havana resident, was originally a trainer in guitar classes, and in order to support his family, he worked part-time as a tour guide and earned some tips. Juan told reporters: "As a tour guide for international tourists, you can earn some milk powder money for my little granddaughter." ”

According to the Cuban Ministry of Tourism, Cuba received about 4.3 million foreign tourists in 2019, but this is down from more than 4.7 million in 2018. The reasons for this are also related to the changes in the relationship between the United States and Cuba. After Trump took office in January 2017, the U.S. government began to tighten its policy toward Cuba in areas such as tourism and trade. In June 2019, Trump banned groups of people to cuba for the purpose of humanistic education, and no longer allowed people to travel to Cuba by cruise ship or private jet. The Trump administration's series of tightening measures have a direct negative impact on the lives of local cubans. A owner of a gallery business on Havana's Corniche complained to the Global Times reporter: "In the past, there were many galleries, and after the Trump administration did not allow Americans to travel to Cuba, my small base business was also at risk." ”

The downturn in tourism has led to a sharp decline in Cuba's foreign exchange earnings, with remittances to the US dollar estimated at $6 billion in 2019 and down nearly half in 2020. In 2020, the Cuban economy fell by 11% in GDP after being hit hard by the global pandemic crisis. In addition to the impact of the US blockade and the epidemic, Cuba's own economic foundation is weak, the foreign trade deficit is too large, the attraction of foreign investment is limited, the population aging phenomenon is serious and other internal factors, as well as the economic situation in Latin American countries has not improved, and other external factors have brought great challenges to Cuba's economic recovery.

At the beginning of 2021, Cuba achieved currency and exchange rate unification. Although the Cuban Government has taken large measures to correct and curb price increases, there was an increase in inflation and shortages of food and medicines at the beginning of the year. Recently, the Cuban government introduced 63 new measures to improve food production and improve food shortages. According to the Daily Cuba, many Cuban economists advocate greater flexibility in economic management, less reliance on central planning, the gradual removal of all obstacles to economic development, structural reform of the Cuban economy and greater foreign investment.

Russia's "Kommersant" reported on the 19th that for the new Cuban leadership, the urgent problem is how to deal with "the most serious economic crisis since the end of the Cold War." In the eyes of Western media such as The New York Times, Díaz Canel is a technocrat who allowed Cubans to access the Internet with their mobile phones in 2018 and, in January, introduced a policy of further opening up private enterprises, allowing Cubans to enter more types of businesses.

"Cuba will move in the direction of a mixed economy, with a private and state-owned economy coexisting, the latter of which will hold control of some strategic sectors." Cuban political analyst Carlos Alzugare said that Díaz-Canel will have more power when he holds the leadership of the party, and the challenge for the new generation of Cuban Communist Party leaders is to overcome old and rigid ideas, and it is particularly important to achieve difficult economic changes without destroying the image of "continuity".

"There will be no noticeable change in foreign policy"

The economic embargo imposed by the United States against Cuba for nearly 60 years has been condemned by Cuba and the international community. Even when the United States and Cuba resumed diplomatic relations during the Obama administration, the United States did not fully lift the blockade against Cuba. The newspaper "Gramma," the central organ of the Communist Party of Cuba, slammed the US blockade against Cuba as a "real genocide" and became the main obstacle to Cuba's economic and social development.

After the conclusion of the Eighth National Congress of the Communist Party of Cuba, the extent to which the U.S. policy toward Cuba will be adjusted and whether U.S.-Cuban relations can be improved again is unknown. A White House spokesman recently said that "the adjustment of Cuba policy is not a top priority of President Biden's foreign policy." In December last year, Díaz-Canel publicly stated that there are indeed political differences between the United States and Cuba, and that Cuba is willing to negotiate with the United States on issues other than principled issues such as sovereignty and revolution. In fact, for the Biden administration, easing U.S.-Cuba relations will also help improve America's international image. In March, 80 Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives jointly urged President Biden to end former President Trump's "brutal" sanctions against Cuba and end restrictions on travel and remittances. In an interview with Western media a few days ago, ordinary people in Havana said that they were "disappointed by the slow pace of reform in Cuba", but also stressed that "the decades-long EMBARGO of the United States has paralyzed the Cuban economy".

Cuba is Russia's strategic partner in Latin America. The Russian "Viewpoint" recently quoted Kalashnikov, deputy director of the Latin American Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences, as saying: "I think that after the transfer of power to the young politician Canel without revolution, Cuba will not change." Carnell will not change the current route. In addition, 'Castro political authority' will continue to exist and will affect the situation in the country. Russian "Izvestia" analyzed on the 15th that despite the change in Cuban leaders, it will continue to cooperate closely with Russia, China and other countries, and Cuba's top level will be committed to economic reform, but there will be no obvious changes in foreign policy. According to public reports, Díaz-Canel is an "old friend of China" who visited China three times between 2013 and 2018.

Source: Global Times