Chinese mainland military might, especially strategic weapons, deter enough deterrents that the United States would not dare to launch an all-out war? Can China's economic circulation withstand a 3-5 year total embargo and blockade? Before there is a definite answer to these two questions, the Taiwan issue still needs to have determination and patience.
Recently, the United States has frequently made trouble in Taiwan, with planes landing one after another and provoking incidents one after another. China's attitude is relatively calm, and it has not made much of a violent reaction. I think that's right. On the Taiwan issue, China must have determination and patience.
The Economist magazine once published an article calling Taiwan the most dangerous place on earth. The article believes that Taiwan is an arena for Sino-US competition and a test of US military strength and its diplomatic and political determination. Once the United States fails to prevent China from unifying Taiwan, China will become the dominant force in Asia and America's global hegemony will collapse.
I have written several articles on the Taiwan issue, and I also believe that in the next two decades, the Taiwan issue will be our biggest risk point and the most likely tipping point for the outbreak of Sino-US conflict.
On the Taiwan issue, the mainland has no way out, and it is absolutely impossible to allow Taiwan to become independent and separate from China. If Taiwan declares independence, the use of force to reunify will be our helpless choice. And the intervention of the United States will also be a high probability event.
We cannot assume that the United States will abandon Taiwan. The abandonment of Taiwan by the United States would at least mean the collapse of U.S. hegemony in East Asia, and China would gain at least the same influence as the United States in East Asia.
However, even if the United States intervenes, there are many forms of conflict between China and the United States, such as:
U.S.-Japan World War II mode: Total war, with the unconditional surrender of one side as the purpose, using all available weapons.
Vietnam War mode: the two sides default to the theater (Vietnam south of the seventeenth parallel), the theater of war, the theater of air attacks on each other's military objectives, but do not use the army invasion.
Korean War Mode: The two sides default to the theater of operations (Korean area), the war zone is fought, and no military action is taken outside the theater.
Of course, no matter which model, it is inevitable that the United States will unite with its brothers to launch a comprehensive embargo and blockade on China.
China is a peace-loving country, but if One day Taiwan declares independence, Chinese mainland will have to resort to military reunification. At that time, the United States announces its intervention, what kind of situation will China be in.
First, we should consider whether there will be an all-out war like World War II.
All-out war is something China wants to avoid. From a geographical point of view, all-out war is very unfavorable to China.
The United States has military bases in Japan, South Korea, and Singapore around China, through which the vast majority of U.S. weapons can be projected to China. China basically only has intercontinental missiles that can attack the U.S. mainland.
In a state of total war, we will be in a state where most of the weapons of the United States can hit us, and we can only hit the United States with strategic weapons. In World War II, the United States and Japan were at war in this state, the United States could strike the Japanese mainland, and Japan could not hit the American mainland. China's geographical location is even more unfavorable than that of Japan at that time.
However, I personally believe that total war is entirely possible to avoid.
Both China and the United States are nuclear powers. The whole world knows what a full-scale war between the two nuclear powers means for the planet. It may mean the demise of all mankind.
If China's nuclear weapons number are enough to deter the United States, I believe that the United States will not let an all-out war between the two countries break out for Taiwan.
After all, China and the United States fought on the Korean battlefield, but they did not escalate into an all-out war.
Moreover, if the United States uses military bases in Japan and South Korea to strike Chinese mainland targets, the Chinese military will inevitably fight back. China's tactical weapons cannot hit the United States, but Japan and South Korea can. Japan may cooperate with the United States to defend Taiwan, but will Japan be willing to sacrifice itself for Taiwan and use its own territory as a base for the United States to attack Chinese mainland mainland? Not necessarily. South Korea is estimated to be even more reluctant.
Of course, how many nuclear weapons are enough to constitute deterrence? The editor-in-chief of the Global Times Hu said that he wanted 1,000 pieces. I basically agree. There is time to write a separate article on this topic.
Suppose there is no all-out war, but a model of limited war similar to the Korean War.
Taiwan and its surroundings, like North Korea in those days, became a war zone. The United States assists in the defense of Taiwan and imposes a total blockade and embargo on China, but does not strike at Chinese mainland targets on its own. Chinese mainland side also only attacks military targets within the theater of operations, not the US military bases on Guam, Japan, and South Korea.
There are two possibilities, one possibility, the Chinese navy and air force are already strong enough, with the intervention of the United States, can still land on Taiwan and win quickly. There is no need to analyze this situation.
Another possibility is that the Chinese military, under pressure from the United States, will not be able to quickly land on Taiwan, in which case it will most likely become a war of attrition.
This war of attrition is actually very beneficial to China. First, Taiwan is so close to China that China's short-range tactical missiles and even long-range rockets can strike Taiwan's military bases, ports, and airfields on the mainland mainland. After three or four months, Taiwan was basically finished, the sea and air transport were cut off, and there was a shortage of materials. More than 20 million Taiwanese are estimated to be entirely dependent on the United States.
The width of the Taiwan Strait determines that even if the Chinese Army can be prevented from landing without comprehensively attacking Chinese targets, it will be difficult for the United States to prevent Chinese mainland from using long-range weapons to attack Taiwan, and Taiwan's security cannot be guaranteed.
Fuzhou is more than 200 kilometers to Taipei, the nearest US military base Okinawa is more than 600 kilometers to Taipei, and Guam is close to 3,000 kilometers to Taipei. Bases on the main island of Taiwan are within the theater of operations and are bound to be attacked. Fighting over Taiwan, the geographical advantages of the Chinese mainland are very obvious. It is difficult for the United States to fully guarantee even the air supremacy over the Taiwan Sea.
In the limited mode of war, the greatest threat to China is the total blockade of the United States. It is possible that all of China's foreign shipping routes will be blocked by the United States. Why China wants to establish good relations with Russia, why it wants to vigorously promote new energy vehicles, and why it emphasizes internal circulation are all preparations for this total blockade. After all, the most difficult to replace of China's imports is crude oil.
China will eventually resolve the Taiwan issue, but China is not in a hurry to resolve the Taiwan issue.
The economic and military gap between China and the United States is narrowing day by day. China is also building up oil reserves little by little, diversifying the sources of oil imports, and completing import substitution in core military-related areas.
Taiwan has no substantive independence moves, and the mainland side does not need to be too anxious. Time is on our side.
When Chinese mainland decide whether to use force against Taiwan, Chinese mainland military force, especially strategic weapons, is there enough deterrent power to prevent the United States from launching an all-out war? Can China's economic internal circulation withstand a comprehensive embargo and blockade for 3-5 years, and can all imported materials be replaced?
If the answer to both questions is yes. Then, even if the United States interferes, military unification will not be too difficult. Moreover, at that time, when Taiwan chose between destruction and reunification, it was likely to accept the alliance under the city, similar to the Beiping model.
If the time is not yet ripe, there is no need to rush. Every day, the gap between us and the United States is getting closer.
Again, the island of Taiwan has no feet and cannot swim to the other side of the Pacific Ocean.