In the Asian session on Friday, October 29, the international gold shock fell, the gold price opened at $1798 in the morning, the highest rose to $1801, the lowest fell to $1792, and is currently temporarily trading near $1795. Last week, gold prices stopped falling and rebounded, in this week's rise encountered resistance, gold trend long and short saw, high shock finishing, Huang Lichen believes that on the one hand, inflation concerns for gold to form a support, limiting the downside of gold prices, on the other hand, the prospect of the Fed to tighten monetary policy on gold pressure, limiting the upside of gold prices, looking forward to the future market, with next week's Fed meeting approaching, it is expected that the market will be more cautious, gold for a short time or maintain the current shock trend.
Gold short-term bullish factors, mainly inflation concerns, the decline in the US dollar, the slowdown in the US economy and so on. Earlier, the IMF issued a report issuing a stern warning about global inflation as the pandemic hit back in the third quarter, global health concerns led to labor shortages and supply chain tensions, and the recent global energy crisis could exacerbate this phenomenon, which has led to continued increased global inflationary pressures. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gave a hawkish speech on Thursday in which the euro hit its biggest one-day gain since May, while the U.S. economic growth slowed sharply in the third quarter announced on the same day, as supply chain pressures due to the epidemic dragged down the U.S. economy, causing the dollar to fall and refresh a new low in the latest month.
Gold short-term bearish factors, mainly include the prospect of the Federal Reserve tightening monetary policy, the rise in the stock market, the rise in US Treasury yields, and the improvement of US economic data. After the end of next week's meeting, the Fed will most likely announce the launch of the reduction, which will be implemented in November or mid-December, while the market's expectations for the Fed to raise interest rates next year have strengthened, and the prospect of the Fed tightening monetary policy is not good for gold prices. A better-than-expected U.S. third-quarter earnings quarter drove equities higher, record highs in the Dow Jones Industrial Index and S&P 500, and higher U.S. Treasury yields, which would weaken the attractiveness of gold, a non-yield asset. Although economic growth in the third quarter was weaker than expected, the earlier U.S. Consumer Confidence Index for October was enhanced, indicating that the U.S. economy is likely to pick up in the fourth quarter of this year, and the number of initial jobless claims in the United States last week hit a new low since the outbreak of the epidemic in March last year, indicating that the labor market is also gradually recovering.
On the trend, gold encountered resistance in this week's rise, and launched a high-level shock finishing. For now, gold prices are below the support, focusing on the lower band of the 4-hour Bollinger Band and the daily 10-day moving average near $1787, followed by the low of $1782 this week, and the daily Bollinger band near $1777, which is also the 0.5 golden section of the gold decline in September. Gold resistance above, focusing on the 4-hour Bollinger Band mid-band and the daily 5-day moving average near $1797, followed by the 4-hour Bollinger band near the upper band at $1805, and the daily Bollinger band near $1811. Overall, the gold trend long and short saw, maintain a high shock finishing, the operation of Huang Lichen suggested to continue to high layout short orders, pressure levels are concerned about $1797 and $1805 respectively, if the gold price is unexpectedly strong, pay attention to $1810 near can continue to try a short, break through this month's high of $1813 then short stop loss wait-and-see, it is not recommended to chase the high after the rise, short orders reasonable arrangement of positions.
Note: The above is only a personal opinion strategy, only for the purpose of consultation and exchange, without giving customers any investment advice, has nothing to do with customer investment, and is not used as the basis for placing orders.