The four major "doubling bases" led the first three quarters, how do the most profitable fund managers look at the future market?

Economic Observation Network reporter Zou Yongqin With the end of October, the three quarterly reports of A-share listed companies and public funds have also been disclosed.

Wind statistics show that at the end of the third quarter, the scale of public funds was 23.99 trillion yuan, and the size of most types of funds increased to varying degrees; at the same time, the proportion of A shares held by public funds to the market value of circulation also increased steadily, increasing to 8.15% in the third quarter, an increase of 0.21 percentage points over the end of the second quarter.

However, while the scale and position growth are synchronized, it is not necessarily that the performance can also grow at the same time. In the third quarter, the affected large-cap growth stocks continued to pull back, and the total loss of public funds exceeded 100 billion, while the record earned nearly 900 billion yuan in the last quarter.

So, which funds are losing heavily? And which funds can buck the trend and become a "doubling base"? And how do the most profitable fund managers view the market in the fourth quarter? This is undoubtedly the most concerned issue for investors at present.

The four major "doubling bases" led the third quarter, and the size of the fund also soared

The latest statistics show that as of the end of the third quarter, there are four public funds that have successfully doubled their yields this year, namely the Golden Eagle National Emerging Mix (104.59%) managed by Han Guangzhe, the Xincheng Emerging Industry Mix (103.65%) headed by Wang Rui, and the Qianhai Open Source Public Utility (103.49%) and Qianhai Open Source New Economy (103.25%) helmed by Cui Chenlong.

Because the performance of these four "doubling bases" in the first three quarters of this year continued to be bright, the relevant fund managers (Han Guangzhe, Wang Rui and Cui Chenlong) also began to be recognized by the market and sought after by the basic people, and the size of the funds they managed showed a blowout trend.

According to the statistics of the Economic Observer Network reporter, the asset size of the Golden Eagle National Emerging Mix was only 112 million yuan in the first quarter, and it grew to 395 million yuan in the second quarter, and it soared to 1.054 billion yuan in the third quarter, with a growth rate of 166.8%. At the same time, the assets of the fund managed by Han Guangzhe have also increased significantly by 7.999 billion yuan, and he is about to be promoted to the ranks of "10 billion" fund managers.

The asset size of Xincheng Emerging Industry Mix in the first quarter was 411 million yuan, jumped to 1.518 billion yuan in the second quarter, and approached the "10 billion" mark to 9.962 billion yuan in the third quarter, an increase of 556.20%. The continuous soaring asset scale of Xincheng Emerging Industries has directly increased the asset size of Wang Rui's current fund to 25.059 billion yuan.

Compared with the golden eagle national emerging mix and the xincheng emerging industry mix, the asset scale of the two "doubling bases" helmed by Cui Chenlong is even more staggering. Among them, in the first quarter, the asset scale of Qianhai Open Source Public was only 354 million yuan, and in the second quarter, it recorded a scale of 2.756 billion yuan, an increase of 678.61! In the third quarter, it directly broke through the 10 billion mark to 16.629 billion yuan.

The asset scale of Qianhai Open Source New Economy in the first quarter was even less than 100 million yuan (only 0.93 billion yuan); but with the continuous performance, it blew out to 1.402 billion yuan in the second quarter, an increase of 1407.82%; and in the third quarter, it recorded a scale of 6.308 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 350.00%. It is thanks to the soaring asset size of these two "doubling base" that Cui Chenlong's current fund asset size under management has reached 23.279 billion yuan, which has the momentum of becoming a first-line fund manager.

In addition to the above four major "doubling bases" that ranked in the top four of the top ten public fund income lists in the first three quarters, the fifth place is the Great Wall industry rotation mix. The fund, which had led the way and topped the earnings charts and successfully doubled in the previous August, fell out of the "doubling base" due to poor performance in September. Although it ranks fifth, the gap between the 97.14% revenue and the top of the list is not very large, and the Great Wall industry rotation mix is still a strong competitor for this year's "doubling base" and the top of the list.

The fund products ranked sixth to tenth were Oriental Alpha Advantage Industry (91.65%), China Overseas Energy Strategy (86.91%), Dacheng SOE Reform (80.59%), TEDA Transformation Opportunity (80.27%) and Ping An Dingtai Hybrid (78.33%). Overall, although these five fund products are in the top ten list, the income gap with the top three has widened, and the opportunity to compete for the top spot has basically been lost. The income gap between the top ten and the top of the list is as high as 26%, which is rare in recent years, which also shows that the A-share market presents structural opportunities rather than overall opportunities this year.

What is more reflective of the income gap is the comparison between the performance of the "doubling base" and the loss-making fund. In the case of four funds successfully doubling, as of the end of the third quarter, the number of public fund products with negative yields this year has reached 1729; among them, there are 24 with losses of more than 20%, and 3 with losses of more than 30%, which are Penghua Global High Yield Bonds (-43.74%), Penghua Global Medium and Short Term Bonds (-42.60%) and BOCOM China Securities Overseas (-33.95%).

From the 104.59% of the Golden Eagle National Emerging Mix at the top of the list to the -43.74% of Penghua's global high-yield bonds at the end of the list, the income gap between the two is as high as 148%, and the investment level of fund managers is polarized.

In stark contrast to the sharp increase in the size of "doubling base" funds, the size of these loss-making funds has shown a sharp decline. For example, Penghua global high-yield bonds, its asset size in the second quarter was 2.601 billion yuan, but in the third quarter it fell sharply to 1.034 billion yuan, a decrease of 60.24%,, while penghua global short-term and medium-term bonds in the second quarter was 326 million yuan, and in the third quarter, it became 133 million yuan, a decrease of 59.12%. This shows from the side that the basic people have the tendency to "abandon the weak and invest in the strong".

The three top performing fund managers took the pulse of investment opportunities in the fourth quarter

Happy families are all similar. According to the reporter's incomplete statistics, the above four "doubling bases" in addition to the substantial increase in scale, there are many common points, such as heavy positions in the new energy sector, such as continuous increase in fund positions.

Specifically, in the heavy new energy sector, the four "doubled base" heavy stocks are mostly involved in the new energy track, and there are many overlapping situations, such as the Ningde era (300750. SZ) was simultaneously repositioned by the Golden Eagle National Emerging Mix, Qianhai Open Source Public and Qianhai Open Source New Economy funds, while Yiwei Lithium Energy (300014. SZ), Farah Electronics (600563. SH), Trina Solar (688599. SH), Gifted Materials (002709. SZ), Oriental Sunrise (300118. SZ) and other excellent targets of new energy tracks are repositioned by two "double bases" at the same time.

As for the increase in the position of the fund, according to the statistics of the reporter, the proportion of the stocks reported in the Golden Eagle National Emerging Mix was 80.04%, and in the third quarter, it became 92.06%, and the stock position increased by 12.02%. The proportion of stocks in the Xincheng Emerging Industry Mix was 90.84%, and in the third quarter, it increased to 91.75%. The proportion of shares in Qianhai Open Source Public Reported was 79.17%, and in the third quarter, it rose to 85.47%. The Qianhai open source new economy increased the most, accounting for only 76.96% of the stocks in the middle report period, and jumped to 90.37% in the third quarter, and the stock position increased by 13.41%.

The reason why the four major "doubling bases" are increased in unison should be related to the relevant fund managers' judgment of the future market situation and the grasp of investment opportunities. So, how do the three most profitable fund managers of the four "doubling bases" view the market and opportunities in the last quarter of the year?

Han Guangzhe, the most profitable fund manager in the first three quarters and the Golden Eagle National Emerging Mix, said in the third quarterly report, "The fund believes that carbon neutrality is the general direction of future world development, green carbon reduction is the path of sustainable development, focusing on the layout of new energy vehicles and photovoltaic sectors, selecting leading enterprises with supply chain advantages, deeply excavating investment opportunities in the tight supply and demand links in the process of new energy development, selecting the target to industry-leading companies, the concentration has improved, from the perspective of cost-effective ranking, the reduction of pharmaceutical, Semiconductor and other industry companies".

Different from the mid-report that "there are still good industry prosperity and development trends in subdivided industries such as new energy (such as electric vehicles, photovoltaics, etc.), biological vaccines, CXO and other sub-industries", Han Guangzhe has begun to reduce the position of pharmaceuticals and semiconductors, so as to concentrate funds on the layout of new energy vehicles and photovoltaic sectors.

Wang Rui, who is a mix of xincheng emerging industries, stressed, "Under the background of economic growth under pressure, we expect that the tone of 'stable currency' in the fourth quarter will not change, and the marginal 'tight credit' will transition to 'stable credit'." We continue to build a portfolio with the three dimensions of prosperity, pattern and valuation as the core, and look for investment opportunities in subdivisions such as photovoltaics, new energy vehicles, clean energy power generation, and power transmission and distribution equipment. We will continue to look for targets with a high cost performance in the pan-manufacturing field with energy reform as the core, in order to achieve long-term steady growth in net worth."

In the interim report, although Wang Rui said that the market is not short of investment opportunities, and expects the market to gradually shift from liquidity-driven logic to performance growth logic; but it is not clear which track sector is optimistic. This time, Wang Rui made it clear that he would look for investment opportunities in photovoltaic, new energy vehicles, clean energy power generation, transmission and distribution equipment and other segments, and was obviously more optimistic about the future market than when it was reported.

As the co-helmsman of the two "doubling bases" of Qianhai Open Source Public Utility and Qianhai Open Source New Economy, Cui Chenlong said in the three quarterly reports that the entire human society is currently at a major turning point in the energy revolution, and photovoltaic and lithium batteries, as representatives of the production and application ends of the energy revolution, have huge room for growth in the face of this major historical opportunity, so they are firmly optimistic about the investment opportunities around the core main line of the human social energy revolution. And stressed, "new energy operators began to improve their business models, the certainty of medium- and long-term growth is higher, relative to the manufacturing end, its penetration rate is lower, the operational stability is strong, the future development space is large, we will pay attention to the medium- and long-term investment opportunities of new energy operators."