Kishida Fumio finally won the LDP president, washing away the shame of losing to Suga in 2020. After Kishida's victory, his first task was to lead the LDP to win the parliamentary election and continue the LDP's ruling power, that is, he could continue to be the prime minister of Japan. As a Chinese, he is naturally most concerned about his China policy. In fact, Kishida, who has been a foreign minister, is not a novice in handling relations with China. The author's judgment is that he is gentler than the far-right Takaichi Sanae, and even more moderate than Kono Taro, who also wants to build nuclear-powered submarines, but he cannot jump out of the framework of Japanese diplomacy of "relying on the United States for security and relying on China for economics." The author believes that China should not believe in any of Japan's "Zhihua factions", and what they are defending is bound to be Japan's immediate interests. At present, the difficulty of Sino-Japanese relations lies in the Diaoyu Dao, and the stronger China's control over the Diaoyu Dao, the more obedient Japan will be to China, and the better Sino-Japanese relations will develop.
Regarding the "Kishida Fumio this person", the Nikkei Chinese network has an article that writes:
Kishida's ambition to become a politician came from new York, where he spent his first to third grades in elementary school. At that time, he followed his father, Kishida Fumitake, who was an official in Japan's Ministry of Trade, Industry and Industry, to the United States and attended a local public elementary school.
When the class organized an outing to the zoo, the teacher asked the neighboring students to hold hands, and the white girl next to Kishida Fumio showed a disgusted expression. The girl did not hold his outstretched hand. This is Kishida's first experience of racial discrimination. After learning about the situation, he made up his mind to eliminate this irrational phenomenon. This became an opportunity for Kishida Fumio to establish a political ambition to value diversity.
In the mid-1980s, the Plaza Accord led to an appreciation of the yen, and Kishida witnessed the collapse of the company against the backdrop of an economic downturn. He wants to be directly involved in changing the status quo of the country and society. Looking at the figure of his father, who has become a member of the House of Representatives, the aspirations of childhood come to mind.
Dear officials, after you read these words, what will you think of Kishida? I think that in his heart, like me, he has an "alternative view" of white Americans, and this is "boyhood". But can Japan stand up to the United States? In the past two or three decades, Yukio Hatoyama may have dared to say a word, and as a result, he was accused of "resigning due to the poor handling of the relocation of the US military Futenma base in Okinawa", and took office for 265 days, becoming one of japan's shortest-term prime ministers.
Kishida did not want to visit the Yasukuni Shrine like Takashi Sanae, welcomed the Deployment of Medium-Range Missiles by the United States in Japan, and did not agree that Kono Taro also wanted to build nuclear submarines, but he definitely did not have the courage of Hatoyama Yukio who dared to stand up to an American, and the training sent to him by Hiroike, where he was, was basically the "middle way." The name of the Hongchi school is Hechihui, which is taken from the words of the Chinese Eastern Han scholar Ma Rong's "Ode to Guangcheng": "Perch late in the view of the bright light, rest in the high light, in order to approach the Hongchi." "Kawaike has sent five prime ministers, Namehumi Ikeda, Masayoshi Oda, Yoshiyuki Suzuki, and Kiyoshi Miyazawa, counting 6 on Kishida. From this point of view, it is also quite "Zhihua".
However, in the face of China's strength and rise, all factions in Japanese politics have fallen into an inexplicable "uneasiness and worry", but there is a difference in the degree between the right wing and Zhihua. The author has always believed that this is a structural problem, and japan has not yet deeply liquidated the crimes of the war of aggression against China, and the woman Takashi said that when she became prime minister, she would also visit the Yasukuni Shrine. They don't liquidate themselves, and inside they panic that others will liquidate. Moreover, the more Japanese politicians say that the Diaoyu Islands are their lies, the more they think that they are the truth and facts, and they are afraid that the more they are not strong enough to grab it. Therefore, these two reasons, that is, "security depends on the United States" have become a pillar of Japanese diplomacy.
After his victory, Kishida Talked about diplomatic security, emphasizing the protection of basic values such as democracy and the construction of a free and open Indo-Pacific, which is actually the same set that Suga fell to Biden.
However, Kishida also stressed dialogue with Chinese leaders, which is actually "economically leaning on China".
From 2018 to 2020, the total trade volume between China and Japan exceeded $300 billion for three consecutive years. In the first half of this year, the total trade volume between China and Japan has reached 181.29 billion US dollars, an increase of 23.7% over the previous year. Among them, China's imports from Japan were 101.27 billion US dollars, an increase of 27.9% year-on-year. China continues to be Japan's largest trading partner, while Japan is China's fourth-largest trading partner, after ASEAN, the European Union and the United States. This is the deep-seated reason why Japan's diplomatic division has become a "dualistic structure."
It is worth mentioning that in November 2014, on the eve of the Beijing APEC meeting, Kishida Fumio and Wang Yi announced that Japan and China reached a four-point consensus in principle:
1. The two sides confirmed that they will abide by the principles and spirit of the four Sino-Japanese political documents and continue to develop the Sino-Japanese strategic and mutually beneficial relationship.
In the spirit of "facing history squarely and facing the future", the two sides reached some consensus on overcoming political obstacles affecting bilateral relations.
The two sides recognize that there are different views on the tensions that have emerged in the Waters of the East China Sea in recent years, such as the Diaoyu Dao, and agree to prevent the situation from deteriorating through dialogue and consultation, establish a crisis management mechanism, and avoid unexpected events.
The two sides agreed to use various multilateral and bilateral channels to gradually restart political, diplomatic and security dialogues and strive to build political mutual trust.
These four consensuses are nothing special from the current point of view, but the fact is that in 2012, Japan "nationalized" the Diaoyu Islands, China began to send coast guard ships into the waters of the Diaoyu Islands to enforce the law, and after Sino-Japanese relations reached a freezing point, the Japanese side publicly acknowledged the existence of sovereignty disputes over the Diaoyu Islands for the first time. At that time, Kishida also said that the four-point principled consensus reached between the two sides is very important for improving Japan-China relations, and the Japanese side is willing to work hard to implement it. We hope to work with China to maintain the momentum of improving relations between the two countries. However, after returning to China, he was criticized by right-wing public opinion and explained that his position had not changed.
In fact, even the United States has changed its "non-position" attitude on the South China Sea issue, but on the Diaoyu Dao issue, it still says that it does not take a position on its sovereignty, and it handed over administrative power to Japan.
I believe that Kishida is no stranger to the sensitivity of the Diaoyu Dao issue, and he is also very aware of the change in the actual control of the Diaoyu Islands since 2012. He also knew that the Suga government did not dare to approve the application of the right-wing legislators of Ishigaki Island in Japan to board the Diaoyu Islands, and he knew that these right-wing landing operations on the islands had been repeatedly intercepted by Chinese coast guard ships.
Historians often have a point of view, that is, why Japan obeys the United States, because the Japanese nation obeys the strong. If this is true, then a new conclusion can be drawn, that is, the stronger China's control over the Diaoyu Islands, the more Japan will submit to China. The issue of the Diaoyu Islands has been completely resolved, and there will be no obstacles in Sino-Japanese relations.