Recently, the United States has been engaged in "small circles" in the Asia-Pacific region. Following the united States convening the leaders of Japan, India and Australia to meet in Washington, the navies of the United States, Japan, India and Australia held the second phase of the "Malabar 2021" joint maritime exercise in the Bay of Bengal from October 12 to 15. The United States has also previously announced a trilateral security partnership with the United Kingdom and Australia to cooperate on nuclear submarines and related technologies.
Patrushev, secretary of the Security Council of the Russian Federation, said in a recent interview with Russian media that the "four-country mechanism" of the United States, Japan, India and Australia is essentially "the prototype of the Asian version of NATO", and the United States will try to attract more countries to join it.
What is the calculation of the United States in stepping up a number of cooperation mechanisms in the Asia-Pacific region? Will the "Asian version of NATO" be what the United States wants?
Inciting antagonism -
Intended to create an "anti-China momentum"
According to the Washington Post website, the leaders of the United States, Japan, India and Australia recently held the first offline meeting of the leaders of the "four-country mechanism". During the meeting, the United States revived the "free and open Indo-Pacific region" and said that the four countries will cooperate in the fields of COVID-19 vaccines, climate change, infrastructure, and emerging technologies. Although the four leaders did not mention China, "China is the subtext of most of the organization's agenda."
The "four-country mechanism" of the United States, Japan, India and Australia has become the main "grasp" of the United States in the Asia-Pacific region recently. In March this year, the United States hosted the "Four-Nation Mechanism" Leaders' Online Meeting; since November last year, the navies of the United States, Japan, India and Australia have held three joint maritime exercises in Malabar.
The US "Politica" website reported that just the day before the offline meeting between the leaders of the United States, Japan, India and Australia, the US House of Representatives "easily passed" a $768 billion defense policy bill, of which $740 billion was used for the Pentagon's basic budget, which was $25 billion higher than the previous US government demand, and another $28 billion was used for the US Department of Energy's nuclear weapons program. According to the website of the US "Star-Spangled Banner" newspaper, the United States conducted a live-fire exercise of the "Patriot-2" air defense and anti-missile system in Hawaii in early September, followed by similar exercises in Japan and Australia, with the purpose of organizing an anti-missile network in the western Pacific to "transmit targeted signals to China."
Wang Dong, executive director of The Research Base for People-to-People Exchanges at Peking University, said in an interview with the overseas edition of the People's Daily that the United States has frequently pulled gangs and factions in the Asia-Pacific region, and the primary purpose is to launch all-round competition with China in the field of military strategy. In the view of the United States, the rapid growth of China's military power poses a huge threat to US hegemony, and the bilateral relationship between the United States and its allies in the Asia-Pacific region is no longer enough to balance China. Therefore, the United States has chosen to continue to win over allies in the military field, form multilateral mechanisms such as the "four-nation mechanism", and form a situation of containment of China in military strategy.
According to Japan's "Asahi Shimbun", unlike the newly formed military alliance between the United States, Britain, and Australia, the United States declares that the "four-country mechanism" of the United States, Japan, India, and Australia is a cooperation dialogue in the non-military field. Before the meeting between the leaders of the four countries, the United States has launched an analysis of the semiconductor production capacity and supply chain of the four countries. In addition, the four countries will cooperate closely in the areas of communication networks, satellite data and exploration of ocean activities.
Zhou Fangyin, dean of the School of International Relations of Guangdong University of Foreign Studies, said in an interview with the overseas edition of the People's Daily that the United States has accelerated the promotion of various military and non-military cooperation mechanisms in the Asia-Pacific region, with the purpose of not only deterring China, but also intending to create an "anti-China momentum" and an "anti-China atmosphere" in the international arena and attract more countries to follow in the footsteps of the United States. The United States, having promoted the "Indo-Pacific strategy" for many years, still wants to raise the level of dialogue on the "four-country mechanism" on this basis, and in the context of the stable alliance with britain and Australia for decades, it also promotes the establishment of a trilateral military alliance between the United States, Britain, and Australia.
Bundle allies -
Threaten regional peace and stability
Yuan Zheng, a researcher at the Institute of American Studies of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, pointed out in an interview with the overseas edition of the People's Daily that the United States has tried to curb China's development in the Asia-Pacific region by strengthening bilateral relations with its allies, by using the TRILATERAL alliance between the United States, Britain, and Australia, and the quadrilateral security dialogue mechanism between the United States, Japan, India, and Australia. "The 'small circle' style of the United States deviates from the trend of historical development, has a strong new Cold War color, and is a typical manifestation of zero-sum thinking."
Last month, after the United States, Britain, and Australia signed a defense agreement on nuclear submarines, Southeast Asian countries generally expressed criticism and concern. Malaysian Prime Minister Ismail Warned that a deal between the United States and Australia could lead to a nuclear arms race in the region, exacerbating regional power rivalries, according to the US Newsweek website. According to the Malaysian "Star" website, indonesia's Foreign Ministry issued a statement stressing that Australia should fulfill its nuclear non-proliferation obligations and continue to work for regional peace, stability and security in accordance with the Treaty of Friendship and Cooperation in Southeast Asia. Experts were quoted as saying that the presence of nuclear submarines puts Australia itself, its neighbors and the entire Asia-Pacific region at risk of nuclear accidents.
"The united states provided nuclear submarine technology to Australia, which blatantly impacted the global nuclear non-proliferation regime and brought instability to regional peace." Yuan Zheng said, "The United States' practice of provoking confrontation between regional countries has interfered with the normal friendly exchanges in the political, economic and cultural fields of various countries, which is not only not conducive to the solution of regional hotspot issues, but also detrimental to the cooperation of countries to cope with global risks and challenges." ”
Japan's "Asahi Shimbun" said that the withdrawal of the current US government from Afghanistan has caused great chaos, and because of the supply of nuclear submarine technology to Australia, it has led to discord with France, and the trust of allies in the United States is declining. At present, the United States intends to use the "four-country mechanism" to save its international image.
"At the heart of America's alliance system is still the Anglo-Saxon circle of Western allies." Wang Dong said, "The U.S.-Britain-Australia Alliance has a distinct 'white' character, which essentially embodies the deep-rooted racist ideas in the United States. ”
At an online meeting in March, the leaders of the United States, Japan, India, and Australia pledged to provide 1 billion doses of COVID-19 vaccine to Southeast Asia and other regions. However, Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov pointed out in an interview with the media a few days ago that all the dramas staged by the United States under the indo-Pacific strategic framework are not to actively promote any process, but only to curb countries that do not obey the initiative.
"The United States is not really committed to advancing vaccines, infrastructure and other projects through the 'Four-Nation Mechanism', but wants to use it to offset China's influence in many areas." Zhou Fangyin said, "The Attitude of the United States towards allies is very utilitarian, and the core criterion for its decision-making is 'America First'. At present, there are no realistic and urgent traditional security challenges in the Asia-Pacific region, and economic development is a common concern of all countries. However, the United States does not fully consider the interests of its allies, does not respect the wishes of its allies, and out of its own selfish interests, bundles its allies into anti-China chariots, forcibly shifts the attention of all countries to security issues, and worsens the regional security atmosphere. ”
Driving backwards --
"Asian NATO" is difficult to become a reality
"The existence of the 'four-nation mechanism' between the United States, Japan, India, and Australia is to engage in containment, weakening China's influence has become the top priority of US foreign policy, and strengthening the anti-China alliance has become a new choice for the current US administration." The Los Angeles Times website of the United States said.
An article published on the website of US diplomatic scholars pointed out that the concept of dividing the "sphere of influence" of the Pacific has long been outdated, and at the moment when the political, economic, and scientific and technological exchanges between countries are deepening, there is no and should not have a "hard border" to divide the Pacific Ocean into two camps. The Remarks of western powers that "the Pacific region can only rely on traditional security partners, so that Pacific countries can act as a strong fortress for strategic defense" essentially requires countries in the region to cede more sovereignty to Western powers, which is not attractive to countries in the region and will not help the Pacific region to move toward security and prosperity.
Zhou Fangyin believes that the United States is still a long way from realizing the "Asian version of NATO." "NATO has absorbed most of Europe, and the U.S.-Japan-India-Australia cooperation framework in the Asia-Pacific region is still dominated by quadripartite dialogue. At the same time, within NATO, there is a significant multilateral alliance between European countries, while the 'four-nation mechanism' consists of a bilateral relationship dominated by the United States. Putting aside the U.S. factor, the ties of the other allies are not enough to forge close alliances. In addition, NATO has built a highly institutionalized and perfect system, equipped with a number of functional institutions such as the North Atlantic Council and the Military Commission, and the work carried out by these institutions is quite substantive, while the possibility of the United States establishing such a mechanism in the Asia-Pacific region is unlikely. ”
Japan's "Asahi Shimbun" analyzed that if the United States forces Asia-Pacific countries to "vote" between China and the United States, it may not only lead to India's alienation, but also fail to achieve the goal of winning over ASEAN.
"India still has a diplomatic tradition of non-alignment, and forcing a military alliance of the nature of 'NATO' is not in line with India's relatively independent foreign policy." Yuan Zheng said, "At present, under the influence of the United States, although India has joined the 'four-country mechanism', the contradictions between the United States and India around economic and arms transactions may affect the establishment of an alliance between the United States and India at any time." ”
Yuan Zheng pointed out that the increasingly close economic and trade cooperation between China and neighboring countries means that the United States will face greater resistance to the so-called "Asian version of NATO" in this region. At present, the Asia-Pacific region not only has a China-ASEAN Free Trade Area, but also the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (RCEP), which was officially signed on November 15, 2020, also covers 15 ASEAN countries and China, Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand, making intra-regional exchanges closer. Countries are bound to seek balance when formulating foreign policies, and they will not easily choose sides.
Wang Dong pointed out that the US approach of taking another job in security and targeting China has had a negative impact on regional peace and stability, aggravated regional geopolitical tensions and antagonisms, weakened the central position of ASEAN, and challenged the existing cooperation framework of Asia-Pacific countries.
"ASEAN is currently China's largest trading partner, and if the United States really engages in an 'Asian version of NATO', it will definitely arouse opposition from countries in the region." As long as the countries in the region adhere to the main line of peaceful development, then the US attempt to provoke geopolitical confrontation is doomed to be futile. Wang Dong said. (Reporter Lin Zihan)
Original title: Will the United States achieve its wish to engage in the "Asian version of NATO"? (Global Hotspots)
People's Daily Overseas Edition ( October 18, 2021, Edition 06)
Source: Overseas Network