In the ranking of the number of world Go champions, Shin Jin-tan is a typical leap forward. In February last year, when he first won the 24th LG Cup and entered the list, he was suddenly ranked 25th because he had already won the championship twice before winning the championship (at that time, there were 44 world champions in total, and Shen Minyuan was not yet included); in September this year, he won the triple crown Tang Weixing to win the Chunlan Cup and was crowned double champion, and the rank suddenly surpassed his predecessor Zhao Zhixun and broke into the top 15, which can be described as ten jumps in a year. Xiao Shen also has the Samsung Cup final (1-3 November against Park Tinghuan), the LG Cup quarterfinals and the final four (November 7-9, the opponent of the quarterfinals is Japan's Yili Liao, the final date is next February) and the Ying's Cup final (expected to cross the wrist with Xie Ke early next year), according to his current invincible and invincible good state (as of the Samsung Cup semi-finals, he has won 15 consecutive World Series), the above three major competitions, it is entirely possible to win one or two gold cups, It's not impossible to even win three titles. If so, his ranking will be rushing forward again, and squeezing into the top 10 is just around the corner.
So the question is, how far can Shen Zhenchen, who has rushed all the way forward, go? Can you surpass the eight-time champion Ke Jie? Can you match Lee Sedol and Lee Chang-ho?
Personally, I think that after solving the following three doubts, the above problems can be solved. These three doubts are: 1. How long can Shen Zhenchen's peak state be maintained? 2. How high can his World Series winning rate be? 3. What is the average number of World Series held each year?
Shin Jin-chan and Choi Jing
Let's answer your first question. According to the peak period (world championship time span) of the Korean leader, it is judged how long Shin Jin-hyun can run. The situation of the four leading geese before Xiao Shen is: 1, Cho Hwan-hyun is 13 years (1989-2003), 2, Lee Chang-ho 13 years (1992-2005), 3, Lee Se-seok 10 years (2002-2012), 4. Park Young-hwan is still fighting in the front line, temporarily 8 years (2011-2019). The average of the four is 11 years, and my estimate is that Shen Zhenchen's heyday can last about 10 years. The concentration and diligence of Korea's top chess players are consistent, so such a judgment is well-founded.
The second doubt is his World Series winning percentage. So far, Shen Zhenchen has participated in 22 world championships, 2 champions in hand, and 3 to be competed for, that is to say, in these 22 major competitions, his number of champions is 2-5, and the probability is between 9-23%. Considering that Shin Shin-chan was a little naïve before 2020, and now he is gradually maturing in all aspects, I predict that his probability of winning the championship is about 20% (to add, the current winning rate of eight-time champion Ke Jie is 28%).
The third is the number of World Series each year. At present, it is more stable to hold the Samsung Cup and LG Cup once a year, plus the Chunlan Cup, dream lily cup, lark cup, Tianfu Cup that are held every two years but have uncertainties, and the Ying Cup that is held every four years, counting the upcoming Rotten Ke Cup, there are about 4-5 world championships to compete for every year. With Shin Jin-hyun's irreplaceable position in South Korea, he will be indispensable to these competitions.
Shin Jin-chan and Lee Chang-ho as a child
In this way, the total number of victories won by Shen Zhenchen can be predicted: 4-5 * 10 years * 20% of the winning rate = 8-10. To be honest, this data is still relatively conservative, if Shin Jin-chan's era is like Lee Chang-ho's time when there was no one to compete with, his number of championships will obviously increase. Given the change in the number of World Series, I privately assess the number of world championships in Shen Zhenchen's Go career as 9-12.
Ke Jie is now relegated to the ninth world championship behind Cao Xuanxuan with eight world championships, but at the age of 24, according to the phenomenon that the peak period of Chinese masters does not last long, it is possible to win 0-3 world championships, if so, his final number of championships is 8-11.
Considering Shen Zhenchen and Ke Jie's chess skills, concentration, diligence, psychological state, current situation and development trend, my final conclusion is that in the ranking of the number of world Go champions, it is not a dream for Shen Zhenchen to surpass the eight-time champion Ke Jie, but it is still difficult to reach the height of Big and Small Li.