Chen Hao: It seems that the turnover rate of the institution is very high now, where is the next stage of the shock box? Xiaobian press: market analysis strategy analysis trend analysis

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On Friday, the Shanghai index was driven higher by the financial, winemaking and other sectors, recovering 3700 points during the session; the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index also rose in the afternoon; the trend of the two markets was differentiated, the semiconductor sector rose sharply, the banking, brewing and other sectors rose, and the coal, oil, electricity and other cyclical stocks collectively fell; the transactions in the two cities exceeded 1.5 trillion yuan, and the net inflow of northbound funds exceeded 3.6 billion yuan. As of the close, the Shanghai index rose 0.27% at 3703.11 points; the Shenzhen component index rose 0.5% at 14771.87 points; and the ChiNext index rose 0.31% at 3232.01 points.

Today's market once had a wave of diving in the morning, and finally failed to stop the rally, and the closing was still a three-line closing pattern. The Shanghai index hit a new high of 3700 points in half a year, the ChiNext board stood at 3200 points driven by the Shanghai index, and Chen Hao, the wolf marshal, believed that the next shock box range would be ushered in when he was a guest of the Central Broadcasting Broadcasting! Where is the specific point? And how to interpret the current popular tactics? ...... Don't miss it!

Chen Hao

I think the upward trend of the Shanghai Composite Index this time should be able to stabilize in a relatively high range, that is, roughly 3650 points, and then the index may find a new habitat, which is about 3600 ~ 4000 points, which is the next stage of the shock box.

The overall pattern is still that the trend of the index is unlikely to be an explosive mad bull, but a constant box of shock slow bull movements, and then the individual stocks are mainly highly involuted on the track, with a cycle of about six quarters, constantly rising and falling.

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Institutions now seem to have a very high turnover rate, which will cause the entire market to start questioning and worrying: who created the trillion turnover? But I think the volume is not a problem, because the total market value is now very high, theoretically need to have the support of volume, if there is no volume, if there is no constant issuance of new shares, then the stock market is afraid of being depressed.

I judge that the reason why the index will flip a box is driven by funds, and now from the index point of view, the institution has not stopped buying and buying. Although the market's public opinion has peaked for a while and the bottom has been said for a while, but in the past year, various institutions have lost at the right time, including many quantitative funds, which have weakened the full value of the timing factor, that is, it is difficult for it to take too much advantage in this kind of fluctuation, so it has become a hold all the way.

Now everyone says that all kinds of funds, including bonds, add up to tens of trillions of market value, so that once retail investors give money to the fund, the fund will buy stocks, the funds in the entire market are more and more, more and more stable, this is the case, and this is the general trend, according to the reason, financial management is two directions, one direction is to buy bonds, one direction is to buy stocks, and bonds, high-interest bond parts are no longer good, so this part of the funds are slowly flowing into the stock market.

< h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" data-track="35" > strategy analysis</h1>

The structure of the market is actually to look at the sector index, I recently analyzed a number of multi-factor quantification why to win? Find that they are actually right side trading, that is, this sector in a certain risk tolerance, if the trend is still OK, they will stick not to the left side - not because of the money we run, but said that we cut if it is broken; and fortunately the current track rotation cycle is six quarters, so you find a new track, to this track is not OK, there are four quarters in the middle for you to make money, which forms the current strategy by looking at the map is much better than through faith, So value investing has been a bit discouraged recently, but people who play algorithms should now raise their eyebrows.

Now popular called multi-factor, what is going on? Let's make an analogy, for example, there is a factor I have been looking at, that is, the circulating market value of the Shanghai Composite Index, that is, the circulating market value of individual stocks represents the size of the plate, you always dynamically track the rise and fall of individual stocks in the market in different time periods in the past 1 week, 10 weeks, 12 weeks, etc., and whether there is a correlation with its large and small markets, if you find a correlation, you will move your money to the place where there is a relative advantage. This is through the backtesting of historical data to see who affect the rise and fall of the stock price, and then to decide on the strategy, he plays.

Behind the circulating market value is the orientation of institutional stock selection: at the beginning, it is fat for beauty, and everyone expects that the industry leader will monopolize the market, and the performance will continue to grow; but after a period of time, the industry leader's price-earnings ratio is close to 60 times, that is, various "Mao", then some people hesitate to quit, this exit leads to the shape or curve of individual stocks is not good; and it triggers the change of quantitative funds, forming such a cyclical positive feedback or negative feedback.

< h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" data-track="25" > trend analysis</h1>

In fact, it is said that the quantitative tracking is the behavior of the institution, but the tracking is reflected in the correlation between different indicators and revenues, which is essentially the continuous change of places by the institution and the funds follow the institution. Financial statements must be a mandatory factor, which is equivalent to quantification and playing fundamentals, but it is playing with data, that is, return on net assets and some other kinds of data. Now a multi-factor quantization might have to use hundreds of factors to observe the market at the same time.

The initial upward trend is the market run-in, such as the recent environmental protection sector, infrastructure sector, and even some road and highway stocks, are currently developing into a new hot track. But these can't all be on fire at the same time, so who fires first? This is a bit uncertain, which is equivalent to the market run-in, a certain piece will rise, so it will trigger the pursuit of funds. Why is Moutai so tall? Because the textbook has a cash flow discount algorithm, the formula tells you that Moutai has no ceiling, the valuation is infinitely high, and it is reasonable to rise anywhere, so that the institution has no fear. But in fact, there is another theory is the P/E ratio, and everyone agrees that the P/E ratio of 60 times is the ceiling, and whoever gets to 60 times does not work. The two companies fought, and it turned out that the liquidity was not high, and after running a few small institutions, they formed an institutional stampede, so they formed today's appearance.

Moutai stocks are eligible to 60 times and then there is a correction, but other tracks such as environmental protection is impossible to 60 times, 40 to 50 times everyone is afraid. So in the future, the hype of the market may become more and more inclined to the middle line, rather than the long-term line, the institution is gradually a large retail investor, which is also where we began to spit on the institution, but also do a variety of high throw low suction.

In fact, no one knows where it can rise, and it is currently moving along the trend - when the chart is significantly worse, it is estimated that it will not go; as soon as the selling market surges, it will be a chicken feather.