(The reporter saw a supermarket in Beijing's Shijingshan District weighing about 254 grams of spinach priced at 4.9 yuan)
Text: Liu Qingqing Shi Dan
ID：CBJTHINKTANK
At present, the price increase of vegetables has become a hot topic, and there is even a phenomenon of "expensive vegetables and cheap meat".
The "Business School" reporter visited the vegetable retail point in Beijing's Chaoyang District and found that since the National Day, the price of leafy vegetables, which are mainly spinach and celery, has soared, and some prices have even soared by more than 600%, while vegetables such as carrots and potatoes have "reacted flatly".
Heavy rains have become an indispensable factor in the price increase of vegetables, and some experts believe that under this wave of vegetable price increases, the impact on farmers, residents and downstream catering industries seems to be limited. What makes people pay more attention is how to adjust the contradiction between supply and demand and stabilize prices.
It is worth mentioning that the soaring price of vegetables collided with the continuous decline in prices at the end of the pig cycle, and the phenomenon of "inversion" of vegetable and meat prices appeared. However, with the advancement of the work of ensuring the supply and stabilizing the price of vegetables, and the price rebound under the pig cycle, the phenomenon of expensive meat in vegetables has disappeared in the eyes of some traders and consumers.
Leafy vegetables prices skyrocket by 600%
"Vegetable prices have been rising since the National Day, and it wasn't until recent days that things have gotten better." He Hao (pseudonym), a trader who has been selling fruits and vegetables for more than 20 years, told the "Business School" reporter.
He Hao pointed out that the price of leafy vegetables has risen more commonly, while vegetables such as carrots and potatoes that are easier to preserve have hardly increased in price. Among them, spinach, celery, and artemisia annua are all leafy vegetables with more prominent price increases, "Originally, spinach was sold for 1 piece 2 or 1 piece 3, and now it can be sold for 10 yuan." "This means that the price of spinach has skyrocketed by more than 600%.
At the same time, consumer Aran (pseudonym) told the "Business School" reporter that he felt more strongly about the price increase of vegetables, "The family often makes celery stir-fried meat, before celery is generally about 4 yuan a pound, but the other day found that the price of celery has reached 8 yuan, nearly 1 times." ”
Aran admitted that he mostly used the fresh platform to buy vegetables, "but the fresh platform does not often use weights such as 1 kilogram and 500 grams, but it is turned into a label that needs to be calculated to perceive the unit price of the item." But even so, you can feel the price of vegetables rising. ”
Aunt Zhao, who lives in Haidian, told reporters that the fennel she bought in the vegetable market has been nearly 8 yuan a pound, and only 3 to 4 yuan a pound is needed on weekdays, "The salesman of the vegetable shop said, you can buy it, the first two days are almost 10 yuan a pound, these two days dropped a little." Aunt Zhao said.
According to He Hao's recollection, since the National Day, almost everyone who comes to the store to buy vegetables will talk about price increases, and until now there are often customers talking about price increases. Moreover, recently many places have suffered from floods to reduce production, vegetable prices have risen significantly, and relatively speaking, the price increase of vegetables in Beijing is still "average performance".
In any case, the continuous increase in vegetable prices has triggered heated discussions in the market and residents, and has also attracted the attention of regulators.
On October 26, Beijing held the 248th press conference on the prevention and control of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, and Wang Hongcun, a first-level inspector of the Beijing Municipal Bureau of Commerce, said that due to various factors, the price of vegetables, especially leafy vegetables, continued to rise after the "Eleventh".
Wang Hongcun introduced that from October 1 to 20, the daily average daily market volume of vegetables in 7 first-class wholesale markets such as Xinfadi, Great Ocean Road and Yuegezhuang was stable at 22,000 tons, and due to the impact of several cold waves in the north, the relevant varieties of vegetables in the north that could be supplied for a period of time were delisted in advance.
Monitoring shows that the supply of vegetables at the wholesale end has declined recently, and due to the diversity of circulation channels in the city, the market terminal supply is still sufficient and the supply is stable. However, since October, vegetable prices have generally shown a volatile upward trend.
According to reports, from October 1 to 25, the average wholesale price of vegetables in our city rose by 39.8% month-on-month; the comprehensive retail price rose by 20.4% month-on-month. Some leafy vegetables and fresh and tender vegetables rose more sharply, some by more than 50% or more.
The price of vegetable meat is "upside down" for half a month
It can be contrasted that while the price of vegetables is rising, the market is experiencing a pig cycle, and the price of pork has fallen significantly, so that the price of vegetable meat has "upside down".
"It's just a piece of it." Trader He Hao said that before the outbreak of this round of the epidemic, that is, just half a month ago (mid-October), the special price of pork he bought in the supermarket was about 7 yuan, even if it was not the tail market, the price of pork was basically within 10 yuan. But almost at the same time, vegetable prices reached a high.
"A few days ago, the prices of spinach, celery and artemisia annua exceeded the price of meat." He Hao pointed out that vegetables are basically rising, but only the price of some vegetables exceeds the price of pork. The phenomenon of this "upside down" of vegetable and meat prices lasted for more than 10 days.
In this regard, Wang Peng, associate professor of Chinese Min University, pointed out that the current price of vegetables has risen, and at the same time it has entered the end of the pig cycle. In the past two or three years, the high price of pork has increased, which has led to a rise in pig stocks, which in turn has led to a recent decline in pork prices. As a result, there is a cross between the rise in vegetable prices and the decline in pork, and the phenomenon of "expensive vegetables and cheap meat" has emerged.
For this round of pig cycle, IPG China chief economist Bai Wenxi said that in the past decade or so, domestic pig companies have experienced three complete "pig cycles", namely from 2006 to 2010, 2010 to 2014, and 2014 to 2018. In the first half of 2019, affected by the African swine fever epidemic, a new round of pig cycle began.
"The reason for the recent continuous price reduction of pork is mainly caused by the continuous release of production capacity of major breeding enterprises, the arrival of the consumption off-season, and the reversal of market supply and demand changes such as import shocks." Bowen Hee said.
It is worth mentioning that He Hao and consumers told the "Business School" reporter that the current phenomenon that vegetables are more expensive than meat has basically disappeared. And this is not only because of the decline in vegetable prices, but also because the pig cycle effect is obvious, and pork prices have rebounded.
He Hao pointed out that in these two days, the price of pork has risen to 16 yuan, at the same time, the price of vegetables has also declined, "during this time, the wholesale price of cucumbers has reached a maximum of 6 yuan 9, but these two days have fallen back to four or five pieces; when artemisia is good, it has sold to seven or eight pieces, and these two days only sell 3 pieces... Spinach used to sell for 10 yuan, and now it has fallen back. ”
He Hao also mentioned that after the National Day, it is actually a period of vegetable price increases, but this time the price increase is fierce, and the price of vegetables after the fall is generally higher than in previous years.
Wang Peng also said that the current high price of vegetables is actually in a relatively controllable stage, and will not last long, and the price increase problem is not in a state where structural contradictions are difficult to solve. Therefore, the price increase of vegetables is a short-term behavior, and it will not have a great impact on the daily life of residents.
What are the parties influencing?
Some farmers told the "Business School" reporter that the price of vegetables depends largely on the market, and more specifically, on the wholesale market. The wholesale market is priced according to the distance of the delivery, the size and stability of the supply, etc., so the price of vegetables fluctuates every day.
In particular, the production of vegetables in Beijing is too small to supply the needs of the city, and most of the vegetables in Beijing rely on the import of other cities in the country. Therefore, the vegetable farmers in the core of Beijing city are far from affecting the price of vegetables, and it has also led to fluctuations in vegetable prices.
"For example, today the wholesale market came with 10 cars of spinach, but the market needs 20 cars of volume, and the nearby vegetable garden is in short supply, then the price of spinach will suddenly rise." Conversely, if tomorrow comes 30 carts of spinach, the price will be driven down. The above-mentioned farmer said.
For farmers, the price is high, in fact, the yield is low, and when the yield is high, the price is low. Therefore, on the whole, the price increase of vegetables does not have a very large impact on vegetable farmers, and the income may be more in the wholesale market. But relatively speaking, one of the obvious benefits of this round of vegetable price increases is that the vegetables will not rot in the ground because they cannot be sold.
"Just like this increase in vegetable prices, it seems to be a good thing, but the overall production has also decreased, so it is not as gratifying as expected." Perhaps only a few farmers can enjoy high wholesale prices without reducing production. The above-mentioned farmer said.
And for the lives of residents, what will the increase in vegetable prices bring? As Wang Peng said above, the increase in vegetable prices is a short-term behavior and will not have a great impact on the daily life of residents.
However, in the eyes of financial commentator Zhang Xuefeng, the high price of this round of vegetables may be caused by the imbalance between supply and demand, and the supply exceeds demand, which will lead to price increases. High vegetable prices will drive the cost of the catering industry, and from a macroeconomic point of view, it may even push up China's consumer price index, thereby pushing up the cost of living of residents and affecting the field of people's livelihood.
In addition, for the downstream catering industry, Bai Wenxi believes that the current high price of vegetables is a short-term phenomenon under the imbalance between supply and demand, and the market will make a deployment between different origins and varieties through price tools, which will have some impact on the cost of the downstream catering industry, but the impact will not be too large.
Zhou Wenke, manager of the production and research department of Zhongda Outai Co., Ltd., also said that the main reason why the dishes are more expensive than meat is caused by their respective cycles, not due to unexpected disasters or policy restrictions caused by the imbalance between supply and demand. High vegetable prices will promote the increase in vegetable supply, low meat prices are already squeezing out breeding capacity, so the market will adjust itself, which will have little impact on the demand side of downstream catering.
The main cause of continuous rainfall?
In the view of trader He Hao, the price increase of vegetables is inseparable from floods and epidemics. The main reason is naturally because of meteorological disasters, Henan, Shandong, Shaanxi and other places have suffered floods, these places vegetable production reduction, naturally will affect the long-term dependence on the city to supply vegetables Beijing.
He Hao also said that the outbreak of the new round of the epidemic has also affected the delivery of materials, because the supply of vegetables cannot keep up, which may not only be the reasons for production and logistics, but also the picking and other links, which must be prevented and controlled.
In the eyes of many experts, the "culprit" of vegetable prices has also pointed to the flood.
Bai Wenxi believes that the price of vegetables in the country has risen recently, especially the doubling of leafy vegetables. The main reason for the high price of vegetables in this round is the large reduction in vegetable production caused by the rain and flood disaster in the main vegetable producing areas.
Liu Xuezhi, a senior researcher at the Bocom Gold Research Center, also said that the current rise in vegetable prices is mainly due to the impact of production and supply due to the early summer weather, but the supply of vegetables will tend to increase since the autumn. As for the recent pork prices that are "cheap" to vegetables, the current pig inventory is still at a high level, and sufficient supply ensures that pork prices are difficult to rise sharply in the short term. With the de-capacity of pig breeding, pork prices may rise next year.
However, in the view of He Xiaoshu, a macro analyst at GF Securities, the price of vegetables has risen significantly over-seasonally in the past month, and there may be seven clues behind the upward price of vegetables, including the cyclical characteristics of vegetable prices themselves, the impact of continuous rainfall, the upward transmission cost of coal prices and oil prices, cold winter temperatures, pork prices and vegetable prices resonance, the driving effect of catering consumer demand, and the impact of short-term currency factors.
Among them, in terms of weather factors, He Xiaoshu pointed out that since the end of September, the scope of rainfall in the northern region has expanded significantly, and the supply of northern vegetable producing areas such as Liaoning, Inner Mongolia and Shandong has decreased, vegetable harvesting is difficult, and the purchase cost has increased. Since October, the circulation of fresh and tender vegetables has further declined. Due to the overall characteristics of the separation of production and marketing in China's vegetable market, if the circulation and trade links are affected by uncontrollable factors such as weather, the cost increase will be quickly transmitted to the terminal.
In addition, He Xiaoshu said that the temperature in the northern region also fell in a large area in October, and the average temperature of the provincial capitals of Shenyang, Hohhot, Jinan, Shijiazhuang, Taiyuan and Shanxi fell to 7 °C (average 13 °C in September), and the growth progress of vegetables in the north was limited in stages.
When the guarantee of supply and stable price is carried out
The problem of rising vegetable prices continues to attract attention. On October 28, the Ministry of Commerce responded to the recent increase in vegetable prices, and Shu Jueting, spokesperson of the Ministry of Commerce, said at a regular press conference that it will deploy localities to ensure the supply and price stability of the market for daily necessities this winter and next spring, establish and improve the joint guarantee and supply mechanism, and timely release government reserves.
Shu Jueting said that due to multiple factors such as cooling rain and rainy weather, the prices of some edible agricultural products, especially vegetables and some means of production, have continued to rise recently. In accordance with the deployment of the Party Central Committee and the State Council, the Ministry of Commerce has actively carried out the work of ensuring supply and stabilizing prices, tracking the operation of the market for vegetables, meat, grain and oil and other daily necessities on a daily basis, paying close attention to the market supply and demand and price changes in the whole country and the epidemic-stricken areas, and on the basis of strengthening monitoring and early warning, deploying localities to do a good job in ensuring the supply and price stability of the market for daily necessities this winter and next spring, establishing and improving the joint guarantee and supply mechanism, timely placing government reserves, urging commercial and trade circulation enterprises to strengthen the connection between production and marketing, increasing the number of stockpiles in key periods, and solving possible problems in a timely manner.
At the same time, we will strengthen information guidance, through the website of the Ministry of Commerce and the business forecast platform, timely release market data and analysis and forecasts of key necessities and means of production, serve residents' consumption, guide enterprise production, and promote supply and demand matching.
In addition, for the problem of vegetable price increases, Bai Wenxi pointed out that in the current situation of weather impact and increased transportation costs, on the one hand, it is necessary to increase support for vegetable transportation and marketing at the policy level, such as inspection-free fast passage and fuel subsidies; on the other hand, it is recommended not to directly intervene in prices, so that prices can give full play to the allocation and substitution between production and marketing areas and varieties to ensure the supply of vegetables.
Zhang Xuefeng also said that the relevant departments can guide the supply of stable vegetables on the one hand and increase the planting of vegetables, on the other hand, strictly control some malicious price increases in the market from the sales end. From the perspective of central bank monetary policy, a prudent monetary policy is more conducive to the return of prices to a reasonable range than an expansionary monetary policy.