Although the last trading day, the stock market did come out of a wave of rebound market, it is precisely because of the emergence of this wave of rebound market, so that A shares are relieved, then, next week, the stock market will usher in the end of the market?
On the one hand, it is because of this wave of rebound that the three major A-share stock indexes have once again returned to the sideways range, especially the ChiNext board directly opened the upward attack mode in the previous trading day after the adjustment of the first few trading days of the week.
On the other hand, this wave of rebound market, and did not rise the index as before, without making money, before, many times, you can see that the index is in a state of rise, but the stocks are still generally falling.
However, in the process of this wave of rebound, most of the stocks in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets are in a state of rise, and more importantly, the Shanghai Composite Index is still under the smashing of the banking sector, and it is still maintaining a state of turning red, which is not easy.
Moreover, in my opinion, the most crucial thing is that a phenomenon has emerged.
It can be seen that the securities sector index has actually fallen below most of the moving averages, on the surface, it seems that the situation is very bad, the sell-off pressure above is extremely heavy, but its MACD has taken the lead in a significant divergence.
At the same time, the deviation rate between the securities sector index and its moving average has also begun to gradually enlarge, so based on the deviation rate and divergence factors, then, in the next week, the securities sector index is likely to have a wave of retracement deviation rate and divergence.
Therefore, this has the potential to drive the overall bullish atmosphere of the A-share market.
Moreover, at present, the Shanghai Composite Index has also diverged, or appeared near the annual line, so it is likely that there will be a wave next week, supported by the annual line, so as to make up for the divergence of the market, at the same time, it will also be affected by the linkage of the securities sector.
Therefore, the situation in the stock market next week is not bad, and even, next week, the stock market may have an upcoming market, that is, next week, the stock market adjustment is basically in the end. A stop-loss rally may come as a result.
The sudden rebound in the stock market on the previous trading day also indicates this situation.
Of course, it should also be noted that just now, two major events have landed, which may have some impact on the stock market next week.
The first big thing, next week, that is, November 4, China Mobile will be the first meeting, if its listing is successfully implemented, it will become the highest amount of A-share IPO in the past 10 years, in fact, the amount of funds raised is as high as more than 50 billion.
Obviously, it will have a certain impact on the capital side of A shares, after all, many funds are still in a wait-and-see cautious situation, and the main funds have been in a state of net outflow this week.
The second big thing, next week, the Fed will announce the November interest rate decision, after market investors predicted that in November, the Fed would announce a reduction in bond purchases, and even, some investors began to believe that the Fed would raise interest rates 2 to 3 times in 2022.
It can be said that the Fed's interest rate decision next week is very important, which may cause the shock of the US stock market to intensify, although it will not raise interest rates, and it is likely to maintain the existing interest rate, but once the interest rate is raised, then, the decline of the US stock market is inevitable.
So, be wary of the Fed's interest rate decision next week, especially on the last trading day of the week, when the dollar index began to have a big rise, and its increase was as high as 0.83%, what does this mean?
In the author's opinion, this means that there are already prophetic funds entering the market in advance, and interest rate hikes may not be large, but the possibility of reducing debt purchases is very large, so next week, the global capital market is estimated to have twists and turns.
Moreover, once the DOLLAR continues to rise, then the trend of northbound capital inflows may be affected, and the reason why foreign capital inflows in the recent period is so much has something to do with the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate.
So, just now, with these two big things landing, next week, the end of the stock market is coming? At least for now, the three major A-share indexes have been greatly supported, and the support level of the Shanghai Composite Index is relatively strong, and the possibility of falling below next week is very small, and the end of the short-term adjustment is coming.