On Friday (10.29th), A shares bottomed out and rebounded, the volume attacked, the three major stock index daily K line collectively recorded "anti-package in the Yang", the market stabilization signs are obvious, next Monday (11.1) A shares or shock upwards.
Specifically:
Last week (10.25~10.29) A shares fell unilaterally. On Friday, the bulls and bears did a little tug-of-war after the bulls won, and then the three major stock indexes rose together. In particular, the ChiNext board is full of momentum, with almost no adjustment in the intraday, rising 2.21% throughout the day.
On the disk, the cyclical and resource sectors continue to pull back, clean energy continues to be attacked by funds; consumption and traditional white horses are eager to try after stabilization; the entire market is full of enthusiasm. In individual stocks, 80% + stocks turned red, falling about 950 stocks. Northbound funds bought again, net buying 4.738 billion throughout the day, of which the Shanghai Stock Connect net bought 3.264 billion and the Shenzhen Stock Connect net bought 1.474 billion. The total transaction volume of the two cities was enlarged to 1,138.4 billion.
The ChiNext index moved on Friday
From the above-mentioned disk language:
(1) The amount can be enlarged, and the incremental funds are tentatively bought; (2) individual stocks and sectors are active across the board, the money-making effect returns, and the market sentiment picks up; (3) the northbound funds continue to buy net; (4) the daily K-line collectively recorded the reverse package in the Yang.
Conclusion: Short-term A-shares are clearly a long market, and the probability of continuing to rise next Monday is large.
Last Friday's close, the October trading cycle ended, the weekly K line and the monthly K line ended at the same time, and then we combed the future market from a technical point of view.
1. Monthly K line. Since December last year, the Shanghai Composite Index has maintained a box shock, with the upper boundary of 3732 and the lower boundary of 3312. Meanwhile, the May, October, February and June EMA are bullish, but the May moving average has a dead fork in the October moving average, and the May and 10 moving averages currently show signs of downward movement. Friday closes with all moving averages.
That is, in terms of the medium-term dimension, the Shanghai Securities Still has the requirement to continue to adjust, but the overall adjustment space is limited, and the limit position is 200 points.
SSE monthly candlestick
In terms of the ChiNext board, the bottom of the ChiNext board rebounded in September, and the low recovery before the retracement in October, the probability of the stage bottom has been discovered, and the monthly K-line level moving average system maintains a beautiful bullish pattern, especially the upward slope of the moving average in May and October is 45 degrees of the standard, and there is no reason to be bearish on the future market.
ChiNext Index Monthly Candlestick
2, the weekly K line, the Shanghai Composite Index center of gravity slowly moved down, below the 60-week moving average (3473 points) as the last line of defense, considering 2440 points, the Shanghai Composite Is only effective and briefly below the 60-week moving average under the impact of the epidemic in March 2020, in other words, the end of this round of adjustment is most likely to be around 3470. The weekly upward trend of the ChiNext board is good, and the single-week K line shows a breakthrough trend.
On the daily K line, the three major stock indexes on Friday in the Yang anti-package, the volume can be enlarged year-on-year; the daily K line below the cycle is currently forming a new, short-term upward trend, short-term bulls control the market.
To sum up: there is still a downward dip in the medium term Shanghai, but the overall downward exploration is not large, the short-term continuation of Friday (10.29) rally, Monday or continue to attack; all the cycles of the ChiNext resonate, there is no reason to short. (Note: Technical analysis only)
The biggest problem in the current market is that the market cannot find a breakthrough, and the future hot spots and main line sectors are still relatively hazy.
Don't tell me about the theme of clean energy (wind power, hydropower, photovoltaics, lithium batteries, new energy vehicles, etc.), I know that this theme is the long-term main line, and I also know the market space and industry prospects of this theme.
But the fatal hard wound is that the current targets worth investing in these industries are really not cheap, and the cost performance is too low. Repeat a phrase that has been said recently: good industry, good company, but no good price.
It is undeniable that I got off the car prematurely and stepped on the game market behind the air, but when the adjustment and decline came, I was relatively relaxed, and the so-called profit and loss were of the same source!
Food and beverages
Fortunately, there were some new main lines on the disk on Friday, that is, after the upstream price increase fell, under the cost transmission mechanism, the downstream consumer industry ushered in a profit improvement, especially those consumer companies with strong brands.
Because, they have a strong cost transfer ability.
From Friday's intraday, the food and beverage sector rose 2.98%, and more than 10 individual stocks rose and stopped, such as a certain ancestral shares, a certain He Industry and so on.
Moreover, the logic of the big topic of consumption is also very smooth, specifically:
1) Cost pass-through, resulting in price increase expectations; 2) at the end of the year, the traditional peak consumption season; 3) the certainty is strong, although the odds are not optimal; 4) the adjustment since the beginning of the year is more sufficient.
Comprehensive analysis: maintain the view on Friday, continue to maintain the upward trend in the short term, and oscillate upward in the medium term. At the same time, the main battlefield in the future may be moved to the ChiNext board!
(The article is a traceable investment idea, for reference only)
I am a traceable and minimalist investment practitioner!