This report is jointly completed by the Institute of Finance of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, the Tehua Postdoctoral Research Station, and the Joint Research Group of the Banker Research Center.
The reform and innovation of the institutional mechanism of China's pilot free trade zone mainly revolves around key areas such as trade and investment facilitation and liberalization, financial opening-up, transformation of government functions and improvement of the business environment. By the end of 2020, There are 51 cities covered by China's pilot free trade zone, all of which are important foreign trade ports, inland transportation hubs, industrial towns and border port cities in the provinces, municipalities (autonomous regions) where they are located. The scientific evaluation of the financial competitiveness level of the cities where the pilot free trade zone is located is a new perspective. On the basis of scientific evaluation, through the construction of mathematical models, the systematic analysis of the financial competitiveness level and development differences of 51 pilot free trade zones, and the identification of their paths and countermeasures to enhance urban financial competitiveness, are of great practical guiding significance for promoting the reform and innovation of the institutional mechanisms of China's pilot free trade zones, especially the areas.
Financial competitiveness evaluation results and overall score ranking of cities in 51 pilot free trade zones
According to the evaluation results and total score ranking of the cities in China's pilot free trade zone in this report (see Table 1), the average values of the 51 pilot free trade zone cities are ahead of the level of 290 prefecture-level cities in the country. Among them, in terms of the average score ranking of the three dimensions of basic indicators, development indicators and optimization indicators, the most significant advantage of the 51 pilot free trade zone cities is the development index, and it is not difficult to see that the provinces, municipalities (autonomous regions) choose the city with the highest comprehensive economic development level to set up the pilot free trade zone area, which is in line with the rational arrangement of the overall law of economic and social development. In terms of reflecting the average ranking of the optimization index of the development level of the financial industry, the advantages of the 51 pilot free trade zones cities over the 290 prefecture-level cities in the country are not prominent, because the cities in the pilot free trade zone include but are not limited to provincial capitals and regional center cities with outstanding financial industry development, but also many cities with developed physical industries. Based on the above analysis, the establishment of the pilot free trade zone is a national strategic overall system engineering, and only through the combination of policy innovation in different dimensions and at different levels can it directly or indirectly affect all aspects of the improvement of urban financial competitiveness. According to the research needs, this report targets 51 sample cities covered by the pilot free trade zone in China.
Comparative analysis of the financial competitiveness of cities in 51 pilot free trade zones
Based on the evaluation index system of China's urban financial competitiveness, there are 16 second-level indicators under the first-level and sub-first-level indicators, which reflect the financial competitiveness level of the sample cities at the specific level. Limited by the space and relevance requirements, this special report selects the scores of 12 secondary indicators of 51 sample cities and ranks among 290 prefecture-level cities in The country, and analyzes the personality characteristics and evaluation indicators of 51 sample cities according to the three first-level indicators of optimization indicators, basic indicators and development indicators.
Optimization metrics
Financial concentration. The correlation between the ranking of this indicator and the ranking of the total score of the sample city is 0.35, which belongs to the secondary index with relatively low correlation. In the first half of the 51 sample cities, there were capital cities with strong economic strength such as Guangzhou, Changsha and Wuhan, as well as Suzhou, Ningbo, Qingdao and other industrially strong cities, which significantly deviated from the overall score ranking, the specific reasons are nothing more than the difference in the structure of fixed asset investment and local financing structure, which has a limited relationship with the reform and innovation of the pilot free trade zone (see the analysis of other sub-reports for details). The capital cities in the less developed western regions are generally better than the overall score ranking. The more eye-catching cities in the second half of the 51 sample cities are Haikou and Sanya in the Hainan Free Trade Port, as well as Zhoushan, a pilot free trade zone with the key point of the Maritime Silk Road, and Heihe, a border trade city in the northeast. The above cases are all local business booms that indirectly drive the rapid development of local financial services business, resulting in local financial services being higher than the overall economic development level.
Financial density. The correlation between the ranking of this indicator and the ranking of the total score of the sample cities is 0.68, which is a statistical indicator with a high relative correlation. The indicator is more determined by the level of local economic development in the first half of the 51 sample cities, and the overall ranking of the top 20 cities in the overall score is generally leading; but Chongqing ranks outside the 50 cities, indicating that although the local economy has a huge economy, the per capita indicators to measure the level of development still need to be improved. Zhuhai in the middle section is thriving, as an ordinary city leading many second-tier economic strong cities, in addition to the superior status of the special economic zone in the early years, the superposition of the establishment of Hengqin New Area and the policy of the pilot free trade zone after 2013 is indispensable. In addition, the aforementioned Zhoushan Free Trade Area is also outstanding, Zhoushan is in the forefront of the two secondary indicators of financial concentration and financial density, the reason for the analysis is more to rely on the unique policy advantages of the pilot free trade zone, with the construction of the global commodity logistics transit center as the entry point to vigorously develop supply chain finance business.
Financial speed. The correlation between the ranking of this indicator and the ranking of the total score of the sample city was 0.87, and the total ranking of characteristics and time periods showed a high positive correlation with the ranking of the total score. Only a few cities in a particular sample experienced a divergence in rankings. Among them, on the one hand, Shenyang, Dalian, Jinhua, Tangshan, etc. are affected by the regional macroeconomic environment or industrial structure, resulting in serious capital outflows; on the other hand, the relative growth rate of fuzhou and Xiamen in the Haixi Economic Zone is much higher than that of other sample cities in the pilot free trade zone, from which it can be seen that the fujian coastal area has a strong development trend under the reform and innovation of the pilot free trade zone, cross-strait economic and trade cooperation and the multiple economic benefits of the "Belt and Road". The financial industry in bengbu, Chenzhou, Kaifeng and other central prefecture-level cities has a good momentum of development, and this indicator ranking is better than the overall score ranking.
Basic indicators
The size of deposits and loans. The correlation between the ranking of the indicator and the total score ranking of the sample city is 0.96, as the most important statistical indicator in the financial industry, this data is the most intuitive embodiment of financial competitiveness, and the ranking of the indicator is the most relevant to the ranking of the total score. The ranking of the 51 sample cities in this indicator has a strong regularity, and the top 20 sample cities with the total score are also in the top 20 in terms of deposit and loan scale in addition to the coastal city of Xiamen. Among them, Fuzhou, Xiamen and Xi'an are significantly higher than the local GDP rankings, reflecting that as sub-provincial cities or provincial capital centers in Haixi and Northwest China, as well as important node cities on the Silk Road on the sea and on the road, respectively, they have an unusual special financial competitiveness status, and the above two cities are precisely the key areas of alternative innovative financial formats in the Pilot Free Trade Zone.
However, the bottom 20 of the 51 sample cities generally show that the ranking of the scale of deposits and loans is lower than the ranking of the total score, and the reason behind this is that the vast pilot free trade zones outside Tangshan cover the prefectures and cities, and the more important thing is that the industrially developed cities assume productive functions, while the locally gathered funds and resources have different degrees of outflow. However, the exception samples are Zhuhai and Langfang, as two ordinary prefecture-level cities, Zhuhai mainly benefits from the absorption of financial resources by the reform and innovation of Hengqin New Area and the Pilot Free Trade Zone; Langfang mainly relies on the excellent location advantage of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei center to undertake the financial effect of relieving the spillover of non-capital functions.
Regional GDP. The correlation between the ranking of this indicator and the ranking of the total score of the sample city is 0.94, and as the most important core aggregate indicator, the ranking of this indicator is extremely correlated with the ranking of the total score. The ranking of the 51 sample cities in this indicator also has the regularity of similar to the ranking of deposit and loan scale, and the top 20 sample cities in terms of economic aggregates are highly consistent with the total score. However, in the cities after the total score ranking of 20, except for Shenyang and Tangshan, which are relatively backward, most of the sample cities are ranked higher than the total economic aggregate ranking, reflecting that the cities in the pilot free trade zone are the representatives of the best of each region and the concentrated embodiment of high-quality development.
Development indicators - financial development
Capital size. The correlation between the ranking of this indicator and the ranking of the total score of the sample cities was 0.87, which was highly positively correlated with the total score ranking as a statistical indicator of the total financial sector. Among the top 20 cities with a total score of 51 sample cities, Xiamen's index ranks relatively low, reflecting that although the local government has the policy location advantage of reform and opening up, its financial endogenous capacity needs to be improved. As the capital city of the lately underdeveloped area, Nanning in the middle section of the sample city has a weak accumulation of local financial factors, and this ranking also lags behind the overall score ranking. In the middle and later sample cities, there is a general situation that the ranking of this indicator lags behind the total score, but the heavy industrial cities with low prosperity such as Tangshan and Shenyang, which have a strong industrial foundation, and special areas with large-cap blue-chip listed companies, such as Luzhou, have a relative comparative advantage.
Financial efficiency. The correlation between the ranking of the sample cities and the overall score ranking is 0.46, which is similar to the financial density indicator in the previous article, and has more links with the stage of local economic development and urbanization process and financing structure, but there is no direct correlation with the export of the local economy and the degree of economic development. Specifically, most of the 51 sample cities ranked behind the overall score ranking, especially the sample cities in the previous paragraph. The reason for this is not difficult to understand, the reform and innovation of the pilot free trade zone covers cities with high levels of development in various places, and most of them bid farewell to the extensive development model of traditional investment-driven economic growth. This leads to the abundant concentration of local financial resources and limited investment direction, resulting in funds being forced to idle or idling within the financial system, which indirectly restricts the improvement of capital utilization efficiency. The sample cities with higher rankings in this indicator are Haikou, Sanya and Zhoushan, all of which are in the areas where the policy is focused on investment, and the local industrial sector is in the stage of rapid introduction, with rapid development momentum.
In fact, the above problems are common problems encountered by the local economy at a certain stage of development, and to a certain extent, they have gone beyond the scope of financial reform and innovation in the pilot free trade zone. Therefore, the sample cities need to seize the valuable opportunity of reform and innovation in the pilot free trade zone, promote financial support for the upgrading of real industries, and maximize the enthusiasm for private investment.
Financial elements. The correlation between the ranking of the sample cities and the total score ranking was 0.93, and the total statistical indicator reflecting the number of financial infrastructure and legal entities in the sample cities showed a high positive correlation with the total score ranking. In general, the larger the economic volume of the main urban area and the built-up area of the city, the more permanent the population, and the longer the history of urban development, the higher the ranking of this indicator, so it is also consistent with the overall score ranking. Among the 51 sample cities, the cities with the more prominent ranking of this secondary index include Qingdao, Shenyang and Tangshan. Among them, Qingdao has the country's first wealth management financial comprehensive reform pilot zone and thus the ranking has risen; Shenyang and Tangshan can be described as "skinny camels bigger than horses", although the local economy has undergone a certain degree of adjustment, but as a regional central city and industrial town, the original factor resources have accumulated abundantly, which is concentrated in the number and scale of infrastructure. In contrast, cities such as Sanya and Langfang that have risen due to special policy factors lag significantly behind the overall score ranking.
Financial innovation. The correlation between the ranking of the indicator and the ranking of the total score of the sample city is 0.50, as a secondary indicator of the relatively subjective human factor, the correlation between the indicator and the total score is not significant, and the contrast between the first half of the 51 sample cities is more obvious. Since the index covers two major factors, one reflects the degree of development of the regional IT industry, and the other reflects the great importance attached by local governments (mainly provincial governments) to the green and low-carbon economy, the sample cities that rank relatively leading in the secondary index generally cover two types of situations: one is the cities with more prominent development of the software and service outsourcing industry, such as Chengdu, Dalian, Xiamen and other second-tier cities; the other is the sample cities in the regions where the government attaches special importance to the development of green economy, such as Hunan Province, Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region and other provinces. In contrast, the sample cities in the Yangtze River Delta region with the strongest comprehensive strength generally do not rank prominently in this indicator. The main reason is that the above-mentioned local governments are more industrial-oriented and have a style of governance related to social stability. For example, the financial reform and innovation introduced in the above-mentioned areas in recent years and the preferential policies and measures of the pilot free trade zone are highly focused on promoting the development of the real industry and serving the real industry sector and enterprises, so the reform and innovation of the pilot free trade zone is also adapted to local conditions, focusing more on the development needs of the original entity sector, while taking into account the innovative pursuit of low-carbon economy.
Development indicators – economic sustainability
Scale of foreign trade. The correlation between the ranking of this indicator and the ranking of the total score of the sample city is 0.78, which is a key indicator that reflects the material basis of the reform and innovation object of the pilot free trade zone, and the ranking of this indicator is highly correlated with the regional economic development level and the ranking of the total score. The ranking of foreign trade scale of 51 sample cities basically follows the gradient level of coastal opening and the development of export processing industry, such as coastal is higher than inland, and south is higher than north. Among them, Suzhou and the four coastal planned cities (Lianqing Yongxia) are all higher than the overall score rankings, which is also applicable to special economic zones such as Zhuhai and international trade cities such as Jinhua. As the trend of coastal manufacturing to the central and western regions continues to accelerate, the ranking of central cities such as Xi'an, Zhengzhou, Chengdu and Chongqing has also continued to rise. Considering that the ranking of foreign trade scale here is based on the import and export data of the customs department's trade in goods, and the central cities with a relatively low proportion of export processing and manufacturing industry, such as Beijing, Nanjing, Wuhan, Hangzhou, etc., the ranking of this indicator is relatively backward in the overall score ranking, especially in Beijing, as a newly established pilot free trade zone in 2020, the main direction of foreign trade reform and innovation is the digital economy and service trade.
Economic efficiency. This secondary indicator is the only indicator that reflects the operation status of the industrial sector, and its data results are relatively special, and there is a big discrepancy between the score ranking and the public perception. The correlation between the ranking of the indicator and the ranking of the total score of the sample city is only 0.24, indicating that the correlation between the index and the total ranking of the city's financial competitiveness score is extremely insignificant. Judging from the top 20 cities with total scores, many first-tier and new first-tier cities, except for Shenzhen, the global high-tech manufacturing center, and Qingdao, the national advanced manufacturing pilot zone, the ranking of this indicator is seriously lagging behind. The main reason is that as an old industrial city with a long history, these first-tier and new first-tier cities retain a large number of traditional industrial enterprises and labor-intensive industries from the perspective of maintaining the improvement of urban functions and social stability, which indirectly leads to low industrial output per unit energy consumption.
The above-mentioned sample cities with strong comprehensive strength and obvious shortcomings should make full use of the opportunity of reform and innovation in the pilot free trade zone, increase the transformation and upgrading of backward industries, "change cages for birds", and vigorously develop production-oriented service industries. For example, one of the main directions of the reform of the Beijing Pilot Free Trade Zone is the digital economy industry, which is constantly moving out of the elimination of low-end industries on the one hand, and vigorously revitalizing high-end strategic emerging industries on the other hand. There are also some old industrial cities with heavy historical burdens, such as Chongqing and Wuhan, which need to seize the major opportunities of reform and innovation in the pilot free trade zone and accelerate the pace of upgrading traditional industries.
The sample cities in the lower part of the total score ranking, a number of industrial cities in the central and western regions represented by Xiangyang, Kaifeng, Yueyang, Luzhou, etc., are more advanced in the ranking of the indicator, the above cities have inherent advantages in the development of low-carbon and energy-efficient characteristic industries, and the government departments follow the trend to do their best to play their strengths, to promote high-quality development as the guide, make full use of the advantages of regional industrial latecomers, and strive to do a good job in medium- and long-term development planning, becoming a model for traditional industrial cities to achieve transformation and upgrading. The above-mentioned urban cases show that the reform and innovation of the pilot free trade zone should be adapted to local conditions and precise policies.
Development indicators - urban security
urban environment. The correlation between the ranking of the indicator and the ranking of the total score of the sample city is 0.78, as an important indicator reflecting the transformation of government functions in the pilot free trade zone, the ranking of this indicator has a strong positive correlation with the ranking of the total score. The top 20 cities in the total score of the 51 sample cities showed a downward trend in the overall ranking of this indicator, but Tianjin's ranking was far behind the overall score ranking. As a once brilliant economic center city, Tianjin, although relying on major project investment and foreign-invested enterprises, the total economic volume still maintains a certain level of development, but the vitality of the private economy is relatively insufficient. Therefore, optimizing the urban business environment and stimulating the creativity of the private economy is one of the important tasks for revitalizing the northern economic center of Tianjin.
The ranking of the middle section deviates obviously from the provincial capitals of the underdeveloped areas, Kunming and Harbin, and the business environment ranking is even lower than that of many ordinary cities in the central and eastern regions, so it is more necessary to use the opportunity of reform and innovation in the pilot free trade zone to reverse the unfavorable situation. In the second half of the ranking, some heavy industrial cities, such as Luoyang, Xiangyang, etc., compared with their overall economic strength, the business environment is undoubtedly a short board, and it is more necessary to accelerate changes and upgrades. This also reflects the practical needs of inland industrial cities to accelerate the reform and innovation of the pilot free trade zone. Jinhua, Chongzuo and other small commercial and trade cities dominate in the subdivision index of business environment, far ahead of other similar ordinary cities. It is particularly noteworthy that Chongzuo, Guangxi, as China's border trade city facing ASEAN, relies on a prosperous local border trade economy and effective government supervision services, and can be called a model for the less developed regions in the western region in terms of business environment. This case shows that as long as local governments implement precise policies and measures in place, even underdeveloped cities can transform and innovate through government functions to enhance the attractiveness of the business environment in the pilot free trade zone.
A summary of evaluation indicators
Through the comparative analysis of the correlation between the ranking of the secondary indicators and the ranking of the total score of 51 sample cities and all the sample cities, it is found that the ranking of total indicators such as regional GDP and the scale of deposits and loans shows a high positive correlation with the ranking of the total score, and the correlation coefficient exceeds 90%, which reflects the achievements of the sample cities in economic construction and development for decades, and it is difficult to produce significant changes through policy innovation measures in the short term. The evaluation of the financial competitiveness of cities in the pilot free trade zone should pay special attention to this problem. At the same time, the secondary indicators with little relevance to the total score ranking include economic efficiency, financial efficiency, financial innovation and financial concentration, in addition to the financial concentration reflecting the evolution process of the city's three industrial structures, the other three indicators, especially financial efficiency and financial innovation, are the key areas of the policy measures related to reform and innovation in the pilot free trade zone, and are also areas where the short-term effect of policy innovation measures is significant. In addition, at the level of the above-mentioned secondary indicators, many sample cities with low overall score rankings also have outstanding highlights, which is the differentiated embodiment of "the ruler is short, and the inch is long". To this end, any reform and innovation exploration in the pilot free trade zone, including financial opening-up, needs to work hard to overcome the shortcomings of development and "learn from each other's strengths", and also needs to use its own advantages to "build on its strengths and avoid weaknesses" to seize the opportunity. The improvement of the financial competitiveness of each pilot free trade zone city needs to choose breakthroughs in key areas according to resource endowments and give full play to its own advantages. For example, on the basis of the establishment of China's first pilot free trade zone, Shanghai focuses on trade and investment liberalization and facilitation reform and innovation and financial opening; Beijing's financial services industry aims at the digital economy, cultural industries and service trade reform and innovation in bold experiments; Shenzhen focuses on financial support for high-tech industries and cross-border financial service reform and innovation in Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao, etc.
(The moderators of this report are Wang Li and Huang Yuhua, and the members of the research group include Wang Shi, Liu Xiaonan, Wang Wei, Xie Dianjun, Wang Zipeng and Zhang Xiaojiao)
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