Text/ Aquatic Frontiers Intern Editor Guo Zhixiong
According to the original report of the China Aquatic Products Channel, by July, most of the farmed species in Hubei had finished seeding. A few days ago, the author conducted a brief market survey on some of the main breeding varieties in Hubei to understand the seedlings of each species and predict the changes in feed volume throughout the year. The data is for informational purposes only.
Grass carp: overall stocking density reduced by 10-15%
In 2020, it is estimated that 740,000-780,000 tons of grass carp feed will be generated
After experiencing a continuous downturn in 2017-2019 to the outbreak of the epidemic in early 2020, the grass carp market has been closed in various places, resulting in the delay in the sale of grass carp in the pond, the grass carp market is basically in a stagnant state, the price shows no sign of recovery, and the farmers of grass carp in Hubei region have once again ushered in a difficult moment. The whole grass carp market can be said to be full of mourning, making it worse.
Under such a background, the enthusiasm of grass carp farmers in Hubei in the first half of 2020 was greatly reduced, and the overall amount of seedlings was reduced. It is understood that the density of small grass carp in Honghu Lake and Xiantao areas has been reduced by 10-15%, and the medium and large grass carp has been reduced by 10%; some farmers have even directly abandoned grass carp farming and chosen special breeding such as yellow jaws, catfish, California perch, loach, yellow eel, etc., especially in Wuhan, Jingzhou and other areas, special breeding bases and fry hatching bases are gradually emerging.
With the easing of the new crown epidemic, Hubei ushered in a comprehensive lifting of the lockdown, the catering industry and hotels have been opened one after another, and the circulation of grass carp has been opened up, especially in various provinces (hubei province outside the first, Hubei inside the open). Grass carp in Hubei are sold rhythmically, without an instant impact on the market. The price quickly rose from 3.8 yuan / catty to the highest 5.5 yuan / catty, and market confidence gradually recovered. In June, Hubei Province experienced a month and a half of rainy days, especially in July, all regions have different degrees of flood disasters, serious waterlogging, lakes and tributaries of the danger, grass carp ponds were washed away, pond fish fled, serious losses. In the Honghu area, at least the loss area is close to tens of thousands of acres! However, since mid-July, the price of grass carp has bottomed out and rebounded, stopped falling and recovered, and opened an upward mode. 2 kg of grass carp 5.3 yuan / catty, 3 kg of grass carp 5.5-6 yuan / kg, fish prices rose, farmers confidence doubled.
According to preliminary estimates, the market volume of grass fish feed in Hubei in 2020 is 740,000-780,000 tons. Feed selection from pellets to extruded materials, or even higher grade extruded materials, the pursuit of faster long speed and higher tonnage production, grab large specifications and high prices. It is expected that after the weather in Hubei region, there will be a peak period of feed feeding, and a high grass carp price battle will soon begin. How to give full play to the ultimate advantages of formula technology and raw material procurement to meet the needs of the market and farmers is a huge test for the current feed manufacturers.
Crayfish: 0.1 tons/mu of shrimp and crab feed in Hubei in 2019
In 2020, it is estimated that shrimp and crab feed will be 0.02 tons/mu
Crayfish market circulation reduced by 30%-40%
In the first half of 2020, the overall capacity of the crayfish market in Hubei showed a downward trend, and in the case of no reduction in the breeding area, the overall market circulation decreased by 30%-40% compared with 2019. In the first half of this year, the shrimp fry from the intensive pond were relatively late, and the farmers watched the seedlings grow on the one hand, and on the other hand, they were anxious to produce shrimp, so they desperately used all the good materials (30, 32, 36 proteins), but because the density was too large, there were too many shrimp, the shrimp was not grown, and the size of the shrimp was not neat. Therefore, at present, in the second half of this year, it should be more difficult for farmers to break through the 3-dollar hurdle (less than 3 dollars for the treatment of ku shrimp, and more than 3 yuan for market currency).
Supply and demand determine the price, and when the price is high, the shipment is small. It is understood that the current price of Hubei prawns can be sold to 30-33 yuan / catty overall, but the price is not too stable, and the overall market this year is relatively sluggish. From January to May, the situation of rice shrimp as a whole was mainly concentrated on intensive crayfish and polyculture of shrimp and crabs. Under normal circumstances, the market has specific requirements for the time node and specification node of selling shrimp, every May 20 (around the Dragon Boat Festival) is a node of rice and shrimp, but due to the high temperature in May this year, the rain in June flooded many places in Hubei and the people's prejudgment of grain prices under the influence of the epidemic has led to the early end of rice planting time in May this year, and the shrimp time this year is more anxious, and the number and specifications of shrimp are relatively large.
Since December last year, a large number of farmers have chosen not to feed, and another large number have chosen to directly purchase raw materials (wheat, soybeans and corn) for feeding, resulting in several large shrimp feed factories with a full line of drops. In 2019, the amount of shrimp feed (excluding fish and shrimp polyculture) in Hubei was 0.1 tons/mu, and this year's conservative estimate of shrimp feed was 0.02 tons/mu, down about 80% year-on-year. In the later stage, it is recommended that farmers should pay attention to the use of drugs, disinfection and health care and disease prevention and control in the breeding process, and remain optimistic.
Yellowtail: 400 million blooms in 2019
500-600 million yuan invested in 2020, and the survival rate of splash increased by 10%
This year, it is estimated that the yellow jaw fish feed will be about 40,000-50,000 tons
At present, the price of finished yellowtail fish in Hubei is basically maintained between 11.5-12.5 yuan / kg, and the proportion of head fish in the pond can be sold to 12-12.5 yuan / kg, and the proportion of head fish can also be sold to 11.5 yuan / kg, and the price is still much higher than the cost. Compared with the price of two months ago in July, it was about 0.5 mao -1 yuan / kg cheaper, and the enthusiasm of yellow jaw fish farmers was not affected. The production space of yellow jaw fish in Hubei is still relatively large, and the overall cost of breeding is much lower than that of other parts of the country.
It is understood that in 2019, the number of yellow jaws and water flowers invested in Hubei was about 400 million, and this year it invested 500-600 million tails, and the survival rate of water blooms was about 10% higher than that of the same period last year. The number of yellow jaw fish in Wuhan, Xiantao, Jingzhou, Honghu and other areas in Hubei province is higher than last year. This year, most farmers have bred more seedlings than in previous years, and the density of seedlings is slightly larger than in previous years.
In terms of feed, the quality of the entire yellow jaw feed has declined sharply this year, and there are currently three farmers on the market whose finished fish has appeared in the situation of "banana fish". This did not happen last year, so this year customers are still more cautious in choosing this piece of yellow jaw fish feed. In the first half of this year, the market volume of yellow jaw fish feed was basically the same as last year, with a slight decline in some areas and a small increase in some areas. It was originally expected to have an increasing trend in the first half of the year, but because the outbreak of large-scale disease in yellow jaw fish lasted for more than a month, the original feed feeding plan of many farmers was disrupted. However, at present, according to the price of fry and the price of fish, there should be a trend of increasing in the amount of yellow jaw material in the second half of the future. Therefore, it is conservatively estimated that the market volume of yellow jaw fish feed in Hubei may be about 40,000-50,000 tons in 2020. Overall, in the second half of the year, farmers are more inclined to choose feed with better quality and higher retention in the choice of feeding.
Catfish: Feed volume is estimated at more than 60,000 tonnes in 2020
Farming density decreased
A while ago, the sudden outbreak of the epidemic in Beijing had a particularly large impact on the market circulation of catfish in the north, and the main catfish raised on the Xiantao side mainly went to the northern market, so the entire fish price fell quite badly from the beginning of the epidemic in Beijing, from 8 to about 5, and it has only picked up in the past few days. At present, the price of 2-4 catfish in Hubei is only 6.2-6.3 yuan / catty. It is reported that under the influence of the epidemic this year, many grass carp four big fish fish ponds are generally sold late, to the seedling replenishment period and because the temperature is too high to make up for the fry of the four big fish, farmers can only choose to supplement the catfish fry that can withstand high temperatures, and the price of catfish fry rises in the middle of the way. In fact, in the past three years, many of the four major fish have been transferred to catfish farming, and the overall aquaculture area of catfish in Hubei in 2020 showed a significant increase compared with last year, and some areas in Hubei, including Honghu Lake, increased the capacity of several thousand tons. At present, the seedlings are basically over, and the stocking density of catfish in the market is about 1000 fish /mu, and the splash is about 100 fish/kg during this time, and the whole fish is basically more than 200-250g.
The sudden rain in Hubei has a particularly large impact on catfish, and the overall feeding volume on rainy days should have fallen by 0.2 tons/mu compared with the same period, which is also a particularly large impact on the feed factories in Hubei this year. The catfish itself has a high nutritional need, but this year's overall catfish feed grade is not high. Several large feed factories mainly push mid-range materials, and the price is between 4000-5000 yuan / ton. So more farmers choose to use grass carp polyculture material to raise catfish, they control the density of culture is very low, the breeding time will be longer, according to the proportion of grass carp 800 fish / mu density stocking.
In 2020, the market capacity of catfish feed in Hubei Province will be more than 60,000 tons, about 60,000-70,000 tons. Compared with last year, it was basically stable and flat, because there was no major change in the seedlings. However, due to the influence of the climate a while ago, the feeding of farmers as a whole was delayed for two months. If the weather conditions in the second half of the year become clear, there should be no other changes in the amount of feeding. But if the temperature is cooled down early this year, the feeding time will definitely be delayed for at least a month, so that the size of the farmed catfish will be delayed accordingly. Therefore, it is estimated that there should not be many catfish that can become large in the second half of the year, and there may be a better momentum from the overall catfish price.
Yellow eel: The feed volume in 2020 is conservative 30,000-50,000 tons
20%-30% reduction in seedling volume year-on-year
At present, the price of adult fish in Hubei is 25-27 yuan / catty, but during this time, the number of adult fish farmed is relatively small, mainly relying on wild fishing, and some of them still belong to the fish stored in the pond last year. At this stage, the weather has become the biggest limiting factor affecting the cultivation of yellow eels in Hubei, just after the rain in July, after the weather begins to clear, the price of the whole seedling may also have a rising process. If the seedlings are released in July and the next month, it will be difficult to guarantee the production of yellow eel farming this year. This year's epidemic has made farmers still have a certain fear, while the risk of breeding has increased, some farmers have also said that they are still more worried about the situation of not letting the delivery after the slow sale of the yellow eel market will happen again.
Although the amount of cage culture of Yellow Eel in Hubei accounts for about 40% of the country, the amount of Yellow Eel seeding in Hubei in 2020 should be reduced by 20%-30% compared with the same period last year. The farmer's willingness to feed the yellow eel is still relatively strong, because only after feeding the feed, his fish will grow large and the yield will be available. But the problem is that the current feed can not be put down, and the yellow eel this fish it has a special, if it does not open its mouth to eat, the farmer is no way, even if the early prevention is done in advance, the final output can not be up at all. The specific feeding situation of the yellow eel lies in its overall opening rate, such as a pond of 100 fish, 95 open to eat, then its entire production is guaranteed; for example, a pond only half of the fish opening, 50 fish eat the portion of 100 fish, then the 50 fish to September is more likely to fall ill. This is due to the fact that long-term over-feeding exceeds the metabolic capacity of the entire body, and there will be nutritional diseases and fatty liver diseases, which are characteristics of most feed fish.
In 2020, the market volume of Hubei yellow eel feed is conservative at 30,000-50,000 tons, but due to the overall downturn and the impact of the weather, it is likely that this year it will only be 10,000-20,000 tons. At present, the yellow eel breeding area in Hubei is mainly concentrated in the surrounding areas of Xiantao and Qianjiang in Hubei, and this year in terms of yellow eel feed, several large feed factories such as Haida, Tongwei, Jiasheng, Zhanxiang, etc. have occupied a certain market share.
*Finally, thank you to friends in the industry for sharing their enthusiasm
【Keywords】:Hubei aquatic aquatic feed aquaculture