The label of wealth in the real estate industry seems to be slowly fading.
Whether it is the real estate tycoons who disappeared from the top ten of the Hurun Rich List, or the real estate logic that Vanke Yuliang said was completely subverted, to start making slow money, they all send a clear signal that the era of real estate making money has passed.
Such a result, real estate tycoons had expected more than a decade ago, Wanda Group Chairman Wang Jianlin because he foresaw the unsustainability of residential real estate, only to turn Wanda from residential to commercial real estate.
Thinking of danger in times of peace and seeing opportunities that others ignore is a rare ability, and we cannot but admit that Wang Jianlin has this ability, and he seizes every opportunity that appears in the market to quickly bring Wanda Commercial to the position of industry leader.
This time is the same, despite all the twists and turns, if it is successfully listed, Wanda Commercial Management is expected to replace China Resources Vientiane Life as the largest commercial operation listed company, and Wang Jianlin's wealth will once again rise sharply.
01
Chess is a trick up the box
Wang Jianlin's self-confidence is built up little by little with the growth of the real estate industry, and in an interview with Lu Yu, he said that he did not have any lofty ambitions when he first did real estate, and only wanted to make his living conditions and that of his family better.
However, in the past three decades, with urbanization and population growth, the real estate industry has entered a golden age, the scale has grown rapidly, housing prices have been doubling, when the trend of the times meets personal boldness, it is difficult not to succeed, Wang Jianlin is a very courageous person.
Wang Jianlin's first major decision on business came from 2000, at this time, he has led Wanda through 12 years, and initially achieved a national layout, but considering the instability of residential development, he set his sights on commercial real estate, and in the first generation of Wanda Plaza that landed in the same year, Wang Jianlin pulled Walmart in the United States.
At the beginning of the development of commercial real estate, the largest international retail brand was pulled in, and this detail highlighted Wang Jianlin's boldness, which was also manifested in the grasp of opportunities. The real estate industry encountered a low point in 2008, at this time, Wang Jianlin made a major decision - against the trend of heavy commercial land.
The most enviable thing is that Wang Jianlin collected the largest comprehensive operation land in Shanghai in 2008 for 990 million yuan, equivalent to a floor slab price of 2400 yuan / square meter, which was called an incredible low in the industry.
As far as the grasp of strategic timing is concerned, Wang Jianlin often plays a high game. "We must look at the step earlier, when others are crazy to get land, we don't take land, and the market downturn is a good opportunity to get land." Wang Jianlin publicly told the media. This, of course, requires the forward-looking vision and boldness of entrepreneurs.
According to a former director of the Beijing Municipal Construction Commission, when Wanda Shijingshan Plaza, with a total investment of 3 billion yuan, was basically completed in December 2008, the land transfer fee for the project had not yet been paid. The industry believes that it is impossible not to admit that Wang Jianlin has extraordinary ability to surpass others in this regard.
At this time, Wang Jianlin's experience as a soldier played an important role because it gave Wanda a militarized management efficiency, which was the guarantee for the large-scale development of Wanda's business scale.
An internal executive once described Wanda's meeting this way: "More than two dozen president-level executives were waiting in their seats 15 minutes in advance, suits and shoes. Ding Benxi (president of Wanda Group) called the meeting no one dares to be late, he is familiar with the business, strict personality, do things vigorously, without Ding Benxi's execution may not have Wanda today's operating model. ”
The Golden Decade belongs to many developers, but 2014 belongs to Wang Jianlin, the year in which he led Wanda Commercial to successfully list on the main board of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and ushered in the opening of the 100th Wanda Plaza. Wang Jianlin officially said in public that Wanda Plaza is a brand with world influence.
There is a small detail that can illustrate Wang Jianlin's self-confidence, this year, Wang Jianlin for the first time to describe the way of business, and published the "Wanda Group Commercial Real Estate Series" to tell how Wanda grew from zero to an empire with assets of 500 billion yuan in 26 years.
02
Horns
After Wanda went public, Wang Jianlin secretly made up his mind: we must do things that others have not done, and this sentence has become the strategic tone of Wanda in the following years.
"Not only to create commercial achievements, but also to start building a national corporate brand." Wang Jianlin hopes that Wanda will become a world-class multinational enterprise and can win glory for China's private enterprises, and he has made a lot of efforts and attempts to this end, although this effort seems to be somewhat high-profile.
"As long as Wanda enters the industry, other companies have no chance to be the boss." "I want to make Shanghai Disney profitable in 20 years." In 2016, Wang Jianlin became the richest man for the second time with a wealth of 215 billion, and he threw a small goal of 100 million yuan on Lu Yu's program, which aroused the attention of the whole people.
Wang Jianlin's confidence comes from Wanda's strength, for example, Wanda's cinema line dominated the top three markets in North America, Europe and China this year. The Wall Street Journal (blog, Weibo) described this as saying, "China's richest people have sent a message to Hollywood: we want to stay, so learn to play games with us."
Also this year, Wang Jianlin made a major decision to privatize Dalian Wanda Commercial Management Group Co., Ltd., which had just been listed for more than a year, because Wanda Commercial Management was seriously undervalued by the market and did not meet the pricing standards in mind.
For this move, some experts at the time believed that Wanda's commercial price-earnings ratio was only 11 times, and the market valuation was 230 billion Hong Kong dollars, while in the mainland, with Wanda's good performance, its valuation reached 20 times the price-earnings ratio was entirely possible, and Wanda's market value was conservatively estimated to reach 400 billion. Unexpectedly, the door to A-share listing is basically closed to the real estate industry, which is a later story.
Wang Jianlin's highlight moment did not last long, and former central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan said at a State Council press conference: "Cross-border foreign direct investment has followed the trend, overheating and blindness, resulting in rapid growth in transaction volume." For example, foreign investment in the sports, entertainment, and club industries is not good for the country.
Wang Jianlin soon sensed the difference and called off the diversified business driven by debt, which hit Wanda International's expansion strategy hard, and the previous high-profile mergers and acquisitions came to an abrupt end. I have to say that in the moment of crisis, Wang Jianlin was very decisive, in order to repay the debt, he sold tens of billions of cultural tourism and hotel assets at one time.
At present, many housing enterprises are in debt crisis, most of the debt restructuring progress is slow, many people recall Wang Jianlin's big sale in 2017, all of them admire the courage he showed in his critical moment. An expert told 90 degrees that the simple way a strong man breaks his wrist is tantamount to cutting meat for a leader, but anyone with a glimmer of hope in his heart is difficult to make a decision immediately.
03
Return of the King?
After experiencing the ups and downs of 2017, Wang Jianlin has become unusually low-key, rarely accepting media interviews, and appearing on more occasions related to poverty alleviation.
But recently there was an exception, on October 11, Wang Jianlin said in a high-profile manner that he would personally take the lead, and all senior executives above the vice president of Wanda would transfer to Hongqi Motors. Behind this is a cross-border cooperation, Hongqi relies on Wanda's commercial plaza and cultural tourism projects to build a "new Hongqi supermarket experience store" nationwide.
To some extent, this cooperation is to empower Wanda Mall, Wang Jianlin after more than ten years of diversified exploration, finally put the focus back on commercial real estate, but this time is different from before, Wang Jianlin emphasizes commercial operation capabilities.
It is also understandable that at the beginning of the year, Wanda Sports just delisted from the NASDAQ, although Wanda Film's performance turned a profit, but the stock price has fallen from a high point of 80.6 yuan to 14.3 yuan, Wanda's diversification is mostly folded, and Now 66-year-old Wang Jianlin finally wants to understand that Wanda's core competitiveness lies in the operational ability accumulated over more than 20 years.
On the evening of October 21, Zhuhai Wanda Commercial Management Group Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "Wanda Commercial Management"), a subsidiary of Wang Jianlin, submitted a prospectus announcing its return to Hong Kong stocks. Compared with the listing in early 2014, investors have a new understanding of the value of commercial operations, and it is only a matter of time before Wanda is listed.
Wang Jianlin once said that everything should be done to be the first in the industry, and Wanda Commercial Management has indeed done it at many levels, such as the number of cooperative brands and passenger flow, in these dimensions, Wanda Commercial Management is the first in the industry. According to the official website, the passenger flow of Wanda Plaza alone is expected to exceed 6 billion in 2021.
How much is it worth? This is the most direct expression of the capital market's value to Wanda Commercial Management, after all, in comparison, China Resources Vientiane life is only 34% of Wanda Commercial Management, and Baolong Commercial's income is only 11% of Wanda Commercial Management.
Bai Wenxi, vice chairman of the China Enterprise Capital Alliance, believes that even if some conservative calculations are made, according to the average price-earnings ratio of 35 times in the property sector, the market value of Wanda Commercial Management will exceed 500 billion; if calculated according to the 50 times price-earnings ratio, the market value of Wanda Commercial will exceed 730 billion.
According to the Forbes 2021 list, the threshold for the richest man in the mainland is $689. According to the prospectus, in the shareholder structure of Wanda Commercial Management before the listing, Dalian Wanda Commercial held a total of 78.83% of the shares, and Wang Jianlin held 52.68% of the latter's shares. If it is successfully listed, Wang Jianlin's wealth ranking will most likely jump further.
After 5 years of returning to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, Wang Jianlin is no longer the high-profile richest man at the beginning, but his glory is still there, when he heard the news that Wanda Commercial Management went to Hong Kong to list, some investors wrote YYDS in the circle of friends.
However, many people also expressed concern that although the capital market has recognized the asset-light model with stable cash flow in the past two years, a reality that has to be admitted is that Wanda Commercial Management will still face challenges from all sides.
A reality is that Wang Jianlin's opponents are increasing, and the impact of live-based e-commerce on commercial real estate is still intensifying, on the other hand, with the continuous improvement of the value of commercial operations, the subdivision tracks of commercial operations are becoming more and more crowded, including Shimao, Vanke, China Resources, Longhu, Baolong, etc. have also increased their layout.
Wanda is known for its efficiency, but its ability to innovate is not outstanding. One executive once expressed concern about the cultural industry: "Wanda's efficient management is applicable in the real estate industry, and the creative industry wants precisely dynamic management, and it is doubtful to what extent Wanda can make changes." ”
Drucker said, "The future is not terrible, what is terrible is the future of change, and we still follow the old logic." Perhaps, what really tests Wang Jianlin is not the upcoming IPO, but the extent to which he can subvert the inertia of the past in the next five years or even longer.