On October 11, 2021, local time, in Baghdad, Iraq, supporters of Shiite religious leader Sadr celebrated the election victory. Figure/IC photo
According to the Iraqi News Agency reported on October 12, the results of the election of a new National Assembly in Iraq were released. The "Sadr Movement" led by Shiite religious leader Mukhtada al-Sadr won 73 seats, 19 more than in the 2018 general election, and was given priority in forming a cabinet.
Iraq's political system was established after the United States launched the Iraq War in 2003. It is a quota system in which the general prime minister is Shiite, the speaker of parliament is Sunni, and the president is Kurdish.
It would have been customary for Shiite political groups to form a cabinet, but Sadr is Iraq's prominent anti-American strongman. And 18 years later, the "anti-American fighters" took control of the Iraqi political system led by the United States, which is really dramatic.
On September 16, 2021, local time, in Baghdad, the iraqi capital, pedestrians walked past the campaign posters of candidates for the National Assembly. Photo: Xinhua News Agency
Long-term combat with the U.S. military
The United States has repeatedly claimed to kill Sadr
Mukhtada Sadr comes from one of Iraq's most influential Shiite families. His family moved from Lebanon to Iraq in the early years. His father was a Shiite religious leader, and his uncle was a good friend of Khomeini, the then supreme leader of Iran. Sadr's father, uncle and two brothers were all killed for opposing the rule of Iraqi strongman Saddam Hussein.
Although saddam Hussein was sent to the gallows after the United States launched the Iraq war in 2003, which amounted to revenge on Sadr,Sadr was a strongly nationalist Shiite leader who opposed all foreign forces invading Iraq.
After the overthrow of Saddam's regime in 2003, iraqi government forces were disbanded and a large number of officers and soldiers were displaced, and Sadr took the opportunity to establish the "Mahdi Army" to fight with the US and British coalition forces.
The Mahdi Army, which sometimes competed with other militias for territory, reached 60,000 at its peak and was rated by the Pentagon as Iraq's "most dangerous armed force." For this reason, the United States has repeatedly claimed to kill Sadr, and Sadr has also been injured.
After 2008, Sadr reorganized the "Mahdi Army" into the "Peace Defenders Regiment", and while fighting ISIS, there was constant friction with the US military. From 2003 to 2011, Sadr fought intermittently for 8 years with the U.S. military.
The Peace Defenders was disbanded in 2017, and by this time Sadr had risen from Shiite leader to a hot figure in Iraqi politics to "parliamentary politics." The card in his hand is the "Sadr Movement".
On October 8, 2021 local time, Iraqi security personnel viewed information at a polling station in Baghdad. On the same day, Iraq arranged for voters from special groups such as internal security personnel to vote in advance for the election of the new National Assembly. Photo: Xinhua News Agency
Unable to become Prime Minister
Sadr prefers to be the manipulator behind the scenes
In the 2018 Iraqi parliamentary elections, the "Sadr Movement" (The Walkers Alliance) became the biggest force in the Iraqi parliament. At that time, only the "Fatah Alliance" could compete with it.
Both the Fatah Alliance and the Sadr Movement are Shiite groups that have in common anti-American. However, the Fatah coalition also advocates pro-Iran.
In January 2020, after Sulaimani, a senior commander of iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps responsible for connecting the "Shiite arc" of Iran, Iraq, Yemen, Lebanon and Syria, was killed by a US drone, it was the "Fatah alliance" that pushed the Iraqi parliament to pass a resolution demanding the withdrawal of all US troops.
Although the Sadr family has ties to Iran, and Sadr himself has lived in Iran for many years and often travels to Iran, sadder is also cautious about Iranian power relative to the "Fatah Alliance". Therefore, in 2018, Iran publicly expressed its opposition to Sadr's coming to power.
In this year's Iraqi parliamentary elections, Sadr did not run for parliament, of course, this is not necessary for him. As a result, he will not be able to serve as Prime Minister of Iraq under Iraqi electoral law.
But in fact, giving up this position is, to a certain extent, conducive to Sadr's integration of various political groups and becoming a substantial manipulator.
On October 10, 2021 local time, Iraqi voters voted in the elections for the new National Assembly in Baghdad. Photo: Xinhua News Agency
If the cabinet is successful
Sadr would put the Biden administration in new difficulties
After the results of the parliamentary elections, Sadr made a speech. The speech illustrates both his actual power and his political vision.
Sadr said all foreign missions were welcome, but they could not interfere in Iraq's internal affairs.
Sadr also said that from now on, all weapons must be returned to the state, and no one other than the national mission can use weapons, even those who claim to be resistance forces. The Iraqi government and parties will no longer control financial and other resources and should be shared by the population.
These goals are not easy to achieve. Iraq has different ethnic groups and different religions, and there are different factions under the same people and religion, and the pattern of interests among them is difficult to balance. Sadr faces many difficulties.
And if a coalition government, dominated by the Sadr Movement, is successful, Biden will face a much tougher opponent than the previous Iraqi government.
At present, the U.S. military has 15 military bases in Iraq, and about 2500 U.S. troops are stationed. In July, Biden announced that he would complete his combat mission in Iraq by the end of the year, but did not mention the withdrawal of troops — apparently, Biden wanted to continue to occupy us military bases in Iraq and maintain deterrence against the "Shiite arc".
The previous withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan has greatly humiliated the Biden administration, if Sadr adheres to the harsh stance of the past on the US troops in Iran, what will the United States do? This is the most noteworthy issue for the next step.
Beijing News special writer | Xu Lifan (Columnist)
Edit | He Rui
Proofreading | Zhao Lin