Sun Gang: The more the market falls, the more people are waiting and watching

From National Day to this Friday, the market is still running in a box, which is composed of the upper rail by the connection of 3614 points on October 11 and 3625 points on October 26, while the 3518 point on September 29 and the 3515 point on October 12 constitute the lower rail, which is still subordinate to the large box structure.

Among the several indices of the Shenzhen Component Index, the ChiNext Index and the Shanghai Index, the Shanghai Index is the weakest, and the trend of the Shanghai 50 Index is much stronger than that of the Shanghai Index, indicating that the decline of the Shanghai Index may not be caused by the decline of the index constituent stocks, but the larger fall of other stocks.

Some people think that this is the reason for the decline in risk appetite, in fact, the key is that the market has lacked a large-scale money-making effect for a long period of time, and the index may not be able to obtain much profit, but the index may fall its own stocks more sharply. Because the previous market is small, there will be a speculative opportunity to correct the mistake of holding positions in so many years, and make a profit in the overall rise, but since the end of the last bull market in 2015, the entire market has not had the opportunity to rise in a comprehensive way for several years, that is, the market has more and more precipitating chips, which has little impact when the wind and waves are calm, but when the market changes slightly, the precipitated chips will trigger a downward trend.

The market value placement method of new shares makes this batch of precipitated chips not loose, because after all, it is possible to win, and in the past, the new shares often mean the acquisition of larger profits, but after the official issuance of new shares under the registration system, the new shares can not cover the loss of old stocks, and the new shares themselves may also lose, in this scenario, as long as a small part of the original chips begin to loosen, it is difficult to undertake the current market trading volume, even if there are new funds to maintain the trend of the constituent stocks, at most it is to maintain a box, However, it is still difficult for other precipitating chips to maintain the original trend. The issuance of new shares is not profitable or beneficial to the secondary market, if the issue price can be reduced to a lower point, it is better, after all, the current new stock issue price is not cheap.

As we approach the end of the year, it is unlikely that new market funds will be put into the market very aggressively, this process usually lasts until mid-December or early next year, and statistically speaking, October to mid-December of each year is the most lacking period of time for the annual report to be hyped, that is to say, lackluster.

In this case, if the market itself has a relatively high heat rise, then it is still possible for everyone to participate. Generally speaking, the market will wait for the so-called fall to penetrate before entering the market, so there may be people who rise and may participate in speculation, and the more people who fall and wait and see, this is the true description of the current situation. (The author is a professional investor)