The top-level design of the "double carbon" goal was introduced to promote the improvement of policy guidance and support mechanisms

Wu Jing, a reporter of this newspaper, reported from Shanghai

The field of "carbon peaking and carbon neutrality" (hereinafter referred to as "double carbon") ushered in the introduction of top-level design documents.

On October 24, 2021, the Opinions of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council on The Complete, Accurate and Comprehensive Implementation of the New Development Concept to Achieve Carbon Neutrality (hereinafter referred to as the "Opinions") was officially released. As the "1" in the "double carbon" and "1 + N" policy system, the document has made systematic planning and overall deployment for the major work of "double carbon".

Immediately after that, on October 26, the State Council issued the Action Plan for Carbon Peaking by 2030 (hereinafter referred to as the "Plan"), as a specific action plan to achieve the goal of carbon peaking by 2030.

In the view of Chen Xing, an analyst at Zhongtai Securities, the realization of "double carbon" is a major strategic decision made by the central government, and this work will be carried out under the unified deployment of the "1 + N" policy system. The official issuance of the two documents means that the top-level design of the "double carbon" and "1 + N" policy system has been released.

Achieving the "double carbon" goal and vision means that China's industrial structure, energy structure and even economic structure will usher in great changes, and in this series of changes, it is inevitable that the effective support of finance will be inseparable. A staff member of the local branch of the People's Bank of China told the "China Business Daily" reporter that in the process of achieving the "double carbon" goal, China can combine the experience of international finance to promote the transformation of the energy structure and establish a long-term financial service support mechanism for government planning guidance and market-oriented operation of financial institutions.

The "double carbon" top-level design landed

The person in charge of the National Development and Reform Commission pointed out that the "Opinions" play a leading role in the "double carbon" policy system and are the "1" in the "1 + N". The "Plan" is a policy document headed by "N", and the relevant departments and units will formulate carbon peak implementation plans for energy, industry, urban and rural construction, transportation, agriculture and rural areas and specific industries according to the deployment of the plan, and all regions will also formulate their own carbon peak action plans in accordance with the requirements of the plan.

It is worth noting that the "Opinions" clearly stated that it is necessary to "handle the relationship between development and emission reduction, overall and partial, short-term and medium-term, and incorporate carbon peaking and carbon neutrality into the overall situation of economic and social development", "unswervingly follow the path of ecological priority, green and low-carbon high-quality development, and ensure that carbon peaking and carbon neutrality are achieved on schedule". Chen Xiao, an analyst at Ping An Securities, believes that this means that major decisions such as the country's economic planning, macro-control and industrial policies in the future need to consider compatibility with the "double carbon" goal; this is consistent with the historical background of the current Chinese economy from high-speed growth to high-quality development, and is also in line with the general direction of economic structural transformation and sustainable development.

In addition, "promoting the comprehensive green transformation of economic and social development", in Chen Xiao's view, further refines the requirements for incorporating the "double carbon" goal into the overall situation of economic and social development put forward in the guiding ideology. It clearly puts forward the medium- and long-term planning of the country's economic and social development in the future, the planning of various levels and all types of regions and fields, and the major strategic layout of the region (Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Yangtze River Economic Belt, Greater Bay Area, Yangtze River Delta, etc.), which need to be coordinated with the "double carbon" goal.

The "Opinions" put forward the five principles for achieving the "double carbon" goal: "national overall planning, saving priority, two-wheel drive, internal and external smoothness, risk prevention" principle, formulated a "three-step" roadmap to achieve the "double carbon" goal, set three stage goals with 2025, 2030 and 2060 as nodes, and also put forward clear requirements for quantitative indicators such as energy consumption per unit of GDP, carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP, and proportion of non-fossil energy consumption. Chen Xiao believes that according to the current linear extrapolation of the current growth rate of various indicators, the realization of some of the goals still faces greater challenges.

Zhang Jin, an analyst at Huabao Securities, also believes that from the specific content of the target, the realization of the double carbon target has a long way to go. "There is still a gap between China's energy efficiency and developed countries, and there is a lot of room for improvement in energy utilization efficiency." At present, China's energy consumption intensity is about 2.5 times that of the United States, 3.4 times of the European Union, 4.2 times of Japan, and 1.5 times of South Korea, if you want to reach the level of the European Union, China's unit of GDP energy consumption should be reduced by more than 70% on the basis of 2020, and more than 80% on the basis of 2005. ”

It is worth mentioning that the Opinions put forward the first quantitative description of the carbon neutrality target - the proportion of non-fossil energy consumption has reached more than 80%. In Zhang Jin's view, the reason for proposing this quantitative target is that carbon dioxide emissions from China's energy activities (mainly for fossil energy combustion) account for about 87% of greenhouse gas emissions, and the proportion of non-fossil energy consumption in China in 2020 is 16%, and the proportion of fossil energy consumption is 84%, so the increase in the proportion of non-fossil energy consumption will greatly reduce China's carbon dioxide emissions, which is conducive to the realization of carbon neutrality goals. However, from the perspective of target planning, the proportion of non-fossil energy consumption will increase by at least 55% between 2030 and 2060, and the pressure to complete the target is greater.

Improve the policy guidance mechanism to support the "double carbon" goal

Zhang Jin believes that the "double carbon" goal will promote the transformation of economic development mode and the adjustment of economic organization structure, industrial structure and energy supply structure, and the investment of funds is an important guarantee for achieving the goal. According to the "Research on Green Finance Roadmap under the Carbon Neutral Vision" issued by the Green Finance Committee of the China Society of Finance and Finance, under the background of carbon neutrality, China's cumulative demand for green and low-carbon investment in the next 30 years will reach 487 trillion yuan.

The staff of the local branch of the People's Bank of China believes that under the framework of the operation of China's current financial system, how to carry out more targeted financial service reform and achieve strong support for the transformation of China's energy structure and carbon emission reduction is one of the operational and management goals of the financial industry in the future.

"The international process of guiding financial support for the transformation of the energy structure can be roughly divided into three stages: government-led, banking institutions and private capital market operation." The staff of the local branch of the People's Bank of China believes that although there is a specific time point for achieving the "double carbon" goal, the realization of the "double carbon" goal is a long-term and continuous process. The amount of funds required for this process is huge and long-lasting, and the strength of the government and financial institutions is far from sufficient, so countries generally establish a market-oriented direct financing market on the basis of the government and state-owned financial institutions giving full play to the role of initiation and guidance, attracting the participation of private capital.

Chen Xiao believes that the "Opinions" from four aspects to develop a policy guidance and support mechanism to promote the "double carbon" goal, of which the investment policy and fiscal and taxation policies aim to guide the direction of industrial investment and development through a variety of specific policy tools, in addition, the development of the green financial system and the construction of the carbon emission trading market, will bring opportunities for related financial business.

Specifically, in terms of investment policies, the Opinions clearly pointed out the guiding tendency of investment and financing policies under the "double carbon" goal: strictly control investment in high-carbon projects such as coal power, steel, electrolytic aluminum, cement, and petrochemicals, and increase support for projects such as energy conservation and environmental protection, new energy, low-carbon transportation equipment and organizational methods, carbon capture, utilization and storage; especially state-owned enterprises should increase green and low-carbon investment.

In terms of financial policy, the Opinions put forward the requirements for the active development of green and low-carbon financial products and services, and the financial products or tools explicitly mentioned are: carbon emission reduction monetary policy tools, green credit, green equity financing, green bonds, national low-carbon transformation funds, green low-carbon industry investment funds, etc.

Undoubtedly, the realization of "double carbon" is an uphill battle, and it is also a big test of the party's ability to govern the country. The person in charge of the NDRC stressed that the next step will be to fully implement the deployment of the "Opinions" to ensure that the "double carbon" work has achieved positive results.

(Editor: Hao Cheng Proofreader: Yan Jingning)