Recently, the U.S. Rand think tank deduced the future war of the US military and came to 5 conclusions. First, with the advent of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and long-range drones in large numbers, the U.S. military will be hit hard by missiles in the early stages of the war. Therefore, in the first 3 weeks of the war, the US military will be ready to be suppressed all the time, and even the forward bases will be paralyzed.
The second is that it is difficult for US aircraft carriers and surface warships to operate offshore. The range of modern supersonic anti-ship missiles can already easily reach 300 kilometers and more than 500 kilometers. The range of anti-ship ballistic missiles is more than 1,000 kilometers, so the surface fleet with aircraft carriers as the core will always be in danger.
The third is that the US military's sea lines of communication will encounter broken engagements, especially submarines. Fourth, the third generation of THE US military fighters, such as the F-15, F/A-18 and F-16 fighters, will suffer heavy losses in the face of the new generation of long-range anti-aircraft missiles and large phased array radars, and going to the battlefield is equivalent to suicide.
The 5th is in the case that the first line and even the second line airports are destroyed. How the US air force dodged high-intensity missile assaults for up to 3 consecutive weeks, so rand also gave several countermeasures.
First of all, the U.S. Navy should highlight the power of nuclear submarines, relying on nuclear submarines to strike at the surface fleet of the other side when the aircraft carrier cannot enter the forward sea, and to attack important land targets through submarine-launched missiles. The second is the mass deployment of unmanned aerial vehicles, unmanned warships, unmanned submarines and unmanned missile launchers. Through distributed deployment, these unmanned missile launch platforms are distributed over a wide area to carry out long-range missile attacks on targets.
At the same time, all stealth fighters are deployed on the third line to avoid missile strikes. By opening up new field airfields, there are also ways to refuel in the air multiple times. Launch a defensive counterattack from the rear and finally seize key air supremacy. At the heart of it is that only a tiny fraction of forces are deployed on the first and even second lines. When the other side's missile consumption is almost the same, it will counterattack from the strategic counter-offensive base.
At the same time, long-range missiles are fired by bombers to destroy the opposing fleet, rather than relying on surface warfare. For example, the US "Forbes" website published an article that THE US Air Force bombers are practicing a new main task, which is to sink Russian warships. Two B-1 strategic bombers could fire 48 LRASM long-range stealth anti-ship missiles, perhaps enough to sink the entire Russian Black Sea Fleet in a single attack.
In fact, the U.S. military's plan just looks beautiful! Russian military expert Baránets even said: If the US Navy dares to strike at the Russian Navy. Then Russia would launch nuclear missiles to turn the United States into the Stalin Strait. Blowing up the United States and turning it into a strait between Canada and Mexico.
Even without the use of nuclear weapons, according to the conventional tactics studied by the United States, the US military can not launch a counterattack across thousands of kilometers in the Atlantic or Pacific Ocean, but it is actually impossible. This requires a large logistical fleet, which are the targets of attack nuclear submarines cruising deep in the ocean. Moreover, a big war cannot be won by stealth fighters and nuclear submarines alone, and the sea powers such as the United States and Britain have always failed to understand this truth.
To win a large-scale war, you must first have a large enough army to occupy and control. Even if the United States attacks the weakest imaginary enemy, Iran, without more than 500,000 ground troops, the U.S. military cannot control Iran. If the US military is just simply bombing, simple air raids, it will not be able to control the other side's land. The other side, then, could continue to produce missiles to surprise various targets around the United States and U.S. allies. That is to say, as long as there are missiles that can suppress and destroy US military bases, airfields and ports within 1,000 kilometers of the surrounding 1,000 kilometers, the US military will basically concede defeat.
Because although, U.S. troops can withdraw from the third line, then, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Poland, Germany, France, Japan and South Korea, etc. can withdraw to the third line? At the same time, the distributed operations of the US military are actually in the final analysis the fear of being saturated with missiles. Therefore, it is necessary to disperse, but this places very high logistical requirements, and the logistics supply area is very large, and it is very dependent on the port. So, what if the port is bombed? How else to do distributed operations? Hundreds of thousands of U.S. troops are distributed in hundreds of bases, and they can only be passively beaten.