Zhitong Finance APP was informed that Zhongtai Securities released a research report that the high-end process of Tsingtao Beer (600600.SH) has accelerated, accelerated the average price, under cost pressure, with reference to historical experience, the company is expected to open a price increase in the off-season and maintain a "buy" rating.
Event: The company achieved revenue of 26.771 billion yuan in 2021Q1-3, an increase of 9.62% year-on-year; Achieved a net profit attributable to the mother of 3.611 billion yuan, an increase of 21.25% year-on-year; The net profit attributable to the mother after deducting non-deductions was 3.216 billion yuan, an increase of 20.09% year-on-year. Among them, 2021Q3 achieved revenue of 8.48 billion yuan, an increase of -3.01% year-on-year; Achieved a net profit attributable to the mother of 1.195 billion yuan, an increase of 6.43% year-on-year; The net profit attributable to the mother after deducting non-deduction was 1.057 billion yuan, an increase of 0.25% year-on-year.
The main views of Zhongtai Securities are as follows:
Under the pressure of repeated epidemics, sales are under pressure, and the performance of high-end is still strong
In 2021Q3, the company's beer sales were 2.313 million kiloliters, down 8.8% year-on-year, mainly due to the repeated outbreak of the epidemic at the end of July, which had a certain impact on the spot drinking channel. In the third quarter of the company's thousand liters of wine revenue was 3666 yuan / thousand liters, an increase of 6.3% year-on-year, maintaining a strong upward trend, mainly benefiting from the upgrading of product structure. By brand, the main brand in Qingdao achieved sales of 1.256 million kiloliters in 2021Q3, which was flat year-on-year; Sales of other brands were 1.057 million kiloliters, down 17.4% year-on-year.
The growth rate of thousand liters of wine revenue slowed down slightly from Q2, the bank believes that it is mainly due to the epidemic situation in the third quarter, high-end drink channels such as night shows are obviously affected, and the follow-up with the stabilization of the epidemic situation, the revenue of thousand liters of wine is expected to achieve faster growth. In 2021Q3, the company's cost of tonnage of wine increased by 6.9% year-on-year to 2124 yuan / kiloliter, further improving from Q2. Mainly due to the sharp rise in the price of packaging materials and the gradual digestion of low-priced raw materials in the early stage, while the decline in sales in the third quarter led to a reduction in fixed cost dilution, the bank believes that the pressure on the cost side will boost the company's price increase process. Due to the increase in the cost of tons of wine, the gross profit margin of the company in 2021Q3 decreased by 0.31 pct year-on-year to 42.06%.
Sales volume is under pressure to shrink sales expenses in the short term, and profitability remains improved
In 2021Q3, the company's sales, management, research and development, and financial expense ratios were -0.83, +0.53, +0.01, +0.76 pct to 13.70%, 4.96%, 0.06%, and -0.69% respectively year-on-year. The decrease in the sales expense ratio was mainly due to the weak sales performance in the third quarter, and the company reduced its expense investment in the short term. The increase in the financial expense ratio is related to the handling of debt instruments such as wealth management products, and the proceeds are mainly included in the fair value change income. On the whole, the company's net profit margin on sales in 2021Q3 increased by 1.11 pct to 14.51% year-on-year, which performed well in the context of sales pressure and high costs.
Profit forecast: According to the company's third quarterly report, the adjusted profit forecast for 2021-23 is 30.535/328.91/35.534 billion yuan, and the net profit attributable to the mother is 27.95/36.04/4.659 billion yuan (formerly 26.95/36.2/46.94 billion yuan), EPS is 2.05/2.64/3.42 yuan, corresponding to PE of 46/36/28 times. The net profit attributable to the mother after the impact of the reduction of the factory is expected to be 2.955/37.64/4.659 billion yuan, and the PE is 44/34/28 times.
Risk Warning: Food Safety Risks; Decline in sales due to force majeure factors; The deterioration of market competition has led to more than expected promotional activities.
This article originated from Zhitong Finance Network