Recently, news of China's new five-generation stealth fighter spread. Judging from the news circulating on the Internet, the new stealth fighter is likely to be derived from the improved model of the J-31 and adapt to functions such as catapult.
However, whether it is indeed this model is not certain, and the author knows nothing about the project behind it. But if it is really based on the J-31 to develop carrier-based fighters, this shows that the PEOPLE's Liberation Army's demand for stealth carrier-based fighters is very urgent, and this urgency overwhelms the pursuit of performance.
As a medium-sized fighter, the J-31 has congenital defects in flight performance, weapon load and other fields compared to the J-20 fighter. For example, leaving aside the specific flight performance, the J-31 is doomed to have a range that is not as good as the J-20, and the weapons compartment cannot carry large ammunition, and the strike capability in stealth mode is limited. In fact, in the case that the People's Liberation Army Navy already has heavy J-15 fighters, the improvement in air combat performance with the J-31 stealth fighter is limited, and it may even be inferior to the J-15 in terms of ground strike firepower and combat radius. The J-31 carrier-based version only improves the ability of the PLA Navy's carrier-based fighter units to carry out high-risk tasks, and solves the basic anti-stealth aircraft confrontation capability, and there is still a certain gap from the real ideal offensive aviation operations.
In terms of performance, if the opponent does not have a stealth aircraft and a mature anti-stealth combat system, the J-31 is still a very deadly combat aircraft. But if possible, having a heavy, long-range stealth carrier-based fighter is still the first choice of the PLA Navy. With one of the main operational hypothetical enemies currently facing the PLA Navy, the U.S. Navy is still extremely outstanding in its strike capabilities. The U.S. Navy still has significant advantages over the PLA Navy's existing Type 001 and Type 002 aircraft carriers in terms of aircraft carrier platform performance, and is significantly superior to the two aircraft carriers in the hands of the PLA in terms of the number and quality of aircraft carried. Even if the Chinese Navy's new Type 003 aircraft carrier is included, the 003 will at most be comparable to the performance of the US Navy's aircraft carrier, and the construction scale will not reach the level of 11-12 US ships.
For a long time to come, the PLA Navy will still not be able to compete with the U.S. Navy alone in the open ocean, and there is a high probability that there is no way to change this. China is progressing in the United States, and the possibility of catching up is still relatively small.
But China has special needs. The United States is a sea power country, while China is a land and sea complex country. This means that not only does China need to maintain land power in eastern Asia, but land power can also give sea power advantages that are difficult to obtain. Although China's periphery is locked by the island chain, in the same way, China can rely on land to maintain communication with the outside world, and because the island chain is not far from Chinese mainland, China can use land firepower to cover the islands on the island chain and the surrounding seas, which can form a specific advantage in the local area.
This structure also means that China can achieve "land to sea" in parts. Therefore, the role of the Rocket Force as a pillar of long-range strike is more important. The PLA Navy, which has the long-range support firepower supported by the Rocket Force from land, may be more feasible and more threatening than the PLA Navy, which can stand up to the U.S. Navy alone. Therefore, even if the PLA Navy cannot confront the US Navy alone, if the Rocket Force can ensure the clearance of the opposing forward bases in the island chain and even the fleet itself, then the PLA Navy that cannot independently confront it is not a problem, at least the pressure is much less.
Therefore, the PLA Navy can accept a slightly inferior fifth-generation carrier-based fighter in order to exchange the mature fuselage for time and press more resources on the future sixth-generation fighter. As for the performance defects, the PLA can also accept it, after all, to meet the needs given by role positioning, rather than a navy that pursues the first in all fields, is the most important goal of the army.
Although it is not easy to say, the status of China's land-sea composite state means that the PLA Navy cannot stand alone against the US Navy with huge resources, but even so, the PLA Navy can meet the needs of China's national defense strategy, effectively block the entry of the opposing intervention fleet under the cover of the rocket force and the air force, and complete a series of military operations such as blockade and land strikes. As for the future, it is not too late to consider the long-term consideration of the geographical pattern.
At present, the structural combat effectiveness of the PLA 001 aircraft carrier with J-15 fighters, Z-18 series helicopter platforms, 052D destroyers, and 054A frigates is still relatively limited, and the survivability of the new quality combat forces facing the opponent is worrying. The next generation of aircraft carriers of the People's Liberation Army will be composed of 003 aircraft carriers with stealth carrier-based fighters, air police-600 carrier-based early warning aircraft, type 055 large destroyers, new nuclear submarines, etc., and the combat performance will be closer to the strike group composed of the latest aircraft carriers in the United States. After that, if the development of sixth-generation fighters can not be too far behind, then the next generation of aircraft carrier formations of the PLA Navy can reach the same level as the U.S. Navy. But even then, the numerical disadvantage is still impossible to change, but China does not need to be able to use it in terms of quantity and the United States.
Therefore, even if the J-31 has flaws, it is not completely unacceptable. Moreover, in the case of the gradual maturity of unmanned aerial vehicle technology, long-range strike technology, space-based liaison technology and other fields, the future diversification of new qualitative combat forces may not be very clear. As long as the J-31 can run amok in the environment it needs, this is enough for the time being.