Tsai Ing-wen speculates on the US military's thinking on the Taiwan issue (1)
Author Tan Chuanyi Is a special military commentator of Huaxia Jingwei
Tsai Ing-wen was interviewed by CNN on the 26th for the first time to confirm that the US military is assisting in training the Taiwan military in Taiwan, and she did not say the exact number of US troops in Taiwan at present.
The United States and Taiwan use each other
In the past, it was a secret that US troops came to Taiwan, and the Taiwan side did not recognize this fact. But now it is actually Tsai Ing-wen who has publicly revealed this secret and is a conspiracy, which is both a conspiracy and a conspiracy.
It is said to be a conspiracy because she has provoked Sino-US relations, pushed the sino-US relations that have been compromised to a more unstable state, and even increased the risk of war in the United States. This destabilizing factor will not send Taiwan to hell, but will find some kind of balance or stability.
This destabilizing factor puts both China and the United States in the same dangerous situation, and both sides must consider the consequences of going to war; As long as neither side moves, Taiwan can find a balance of terror, or even stability, in this tension.
The same is true for the United States, whether economically or militarily directly against the mainland, it has just escaped from the quagmire of Afghanistan, and no one wants to step into the battlefield again, let alone compete with the powerful People's Liberation Army.
In this case, Taiwan becomes the ideal tool; Manipulating Taiwan is good for the mainland, and if it really ignites the mainland's use of force against Taiwan, the Western media's previous rumor that "Taiwan is the most dangerous place in the world" has come true, proving that China is indeed an enemy of the West, and the United States can collude with other Western countries to intervene and mediate.
If the mainland looks far from grasping the near and being patient, Sino-US tensions will continue, and no matter how the Chinese mainland reacts, the United States will not be a loser. Of course, with the support of the United States, Taiwan can indeed find a balance within a certain period of time.
The US military is no longer able to intervene militarily in the Taiwan Strait
The logic of the military has always been the stick in the hands of the U.S. government, a tool for a certain political end, but now the tool has changed.
This tool (the army) is becoming more and more advanced, complex, sophisticated, and more expensive, so expensive that military expenditures continue to rise, the number of combatants is getting smaller, and the number of logistical support is increasing.
Although according to Tsai Ing-wen, the number of US troops in Taiwan will not be too large, and these numbers will probably reach the top, and there should be no next step: stationing troops in Taiwan.
Imagine, suppose the U.S. Army garrisons an infantry division in Taiwan, and the strength of an infantry division is about 18,000 people, and if it is added to the huge logistical support, the total strength will be as high as more than 40,000 people, and an average of 1 combatant can get more than 2 people, including intelligence, medical treatment, logistics maintenance, information, command and control, communication, reconnaissance and surveillance, and so on.
Even if only one infantry battalion or infantry brigade comes, the service required will not be less. For the U.S. troops who have just withdrawn from the Battlefield in Afghanistan, the risk of directly fighting the PEOPLE's Liberation Army is too high, and unless Biden is "old and crazy", it will not be easy to garrison Taiwan.
Why? It is because of the increase in military spending driven by technological progress, and the navy and air force are the most obvious. The price of building machines and ships is not the highest, but only higher, and the degree of dependence on logistical support is much higher than that of the Army. Once the unit price rises, the number of construction will not be too much, and if the number is large, the defense cost will increase significantly.
This is why in recent years the US military has become popular for lightweight, miniaturization, and unmanned, on the one hand, the rapid progress of technology, on the other hand, military spending is too high, the United States is really unable to support the increasingly expensive army. Getting Taiwan ahead is probably the cheapest thing to do, and much of it is cost.
As can be seen from the Iraq war, less than one-third of the troops used in the Persian Gulf War, but the United States is very difficult, let alone the hasty withdrawal of troops in the Afghan war. This is still the case against weak countries, and it is even more powerless in the face of the People's Liberation Army.
A conspiracy to manipulate elections
At the end of next year, the local county mayoral elections will be held, and the DPP will need votes, especially for young people. During the election to remove Chen Baiwei, Tsai Ing-wen casually said, "She saw many young people on the streets of Taichung..." She said that she is very convinced that young people support the DPP, and Tsai Ing-wen must let young people continue to immerse themselves in the atmosphere of resistance to China, and must continue to heat up, not let it cool.
It is best to intensify Sino-US tensions, but in any case, the whole island is betting that the PLA will not fight, and as long as the PLA does not move, the DPP will have a lot of room for maneuver in this tension. We expect that there will be more fiery issues in next year's leadership election, and the US military training the Taiwan military in Taiwan is just a starter.
We do not rule out that during next year's "general election" period, there may really be US troops coming to Taiwan, perhaps not "people" US troops, but may be "unmanned" US troops, such as unmanned speedboats, unmanned submarines, unmanned aerial vehicles, and even marines that plan to establish 6 forward bases in Taiwan.
Traditionally, the U.S. Marine Corps has placed more emphasis on military bravery and warriorism, attaching more importance to soldiers' combat skills than technology and equipment, and is the only service that does not seek funding from the Department of Defense. The US Government is likely to cooperate with "unmanned" weapons and send Marines to Taiwan to practice "island-jumping tactics." The funds for this are not high, and it can not only achieve the goal of deterring the mainland, but also fulfill the US promise of "defending Taiwan."