On October 26, US President Joe Biden's attendance at the ASEAN Online Summit attracted a lot of attention. This is the first time in four years that the United States has engaged with ASEAN countries at the leadership level. Although Biden did not talk too much about China out of consideration for holding a video meeting with Chinese leaders before the end of the year, many media have pointed out in reports that the purpose of Biden's participation is to win ASEAN "against China".
For example, he openly incited that the United States is willing to work with ASEAN to defend "maritime freedom and democracy", that the partnership between the United States and ASEAN is the key to maintaining a "free and open Indo-Pacific region", and that the United States firmly supports ASEAN's vision of the Indo-Pacific and the "rules-based regional order". In addition to his words, all of them are provoking ASEAN-China relations on the South China Sea issue.
In addition to military support, Biden also threw out economic bait. He said the United States would explore with partners in the Indo-Pacific region to build a regional economic framework. The framework will set common goals in areas of mutual interest, such as trade, the digital economy, strengthening supply chains, carbon reduction and clean energy, and infrastructure. Biden also pledged to provide up to $102 million in financial assistance to ASEAN to fight the pandemic, combat climate change, and support trade and innovation.
Analysts see this as a remedy for former U.S. President Donald Trump's withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) in 2017, as U.S. strategy in the Indo-Pacific has been lacking in economic considerations ever since. But while Biden has allocated a modest sum of money to boost trade with ASEAN, there is no indication that he plans to return to the TPP, and since taking office, biden has refrained from any initiative that could harm American jobs.
For ASEAN leaders eager to do more with the United States in areas such as trade, investment and infrastructure, Biden's tepid attitude will clearly disappoint them. Some people in diplomatic circles commented that while the economic ties between ASEAN countries and China are expanding, the Lack of Sufficient Economic Factors in the Us Contacts with the Region is a major gap.
Li Chenyang, an expert on Southeast Asian issues at Yunnan University, pointed out that there are five reasons that determine that ASEAN countries will not rely solely on the United States as a whole.
First, the US policy toward ASEAN lacks sustainability; second, the US policy toward ASEAN almost only considers the interests of the United States itself, but basically does not consider the interests of ASEAN; third, although the United States has established the "Friends of the Mekong" foreign ministers' meeting mechanism, it has not paid much real money; fourth, the United States has instigated ASEAN countries to confront China on the South China Sea issue, but it does not want to take responsibility. Fifth, the United States has said that it attaches importance to relations with ASEAN, but the focus of its "Indo-Pacific strategy" is the "four-sided mechanism" of the United States, Japan, India and Australia, and the United States also wants to pull South Korea and the European Union into the circle of encircling China, which poses a huge challenge to ASEAN's "central position" in the Asia-Pacific region.
Li Chenyang also said that since China's economic influence cannot be replaced, the ATTEMPT of the United States to win over ASEAN to "confront China" will be doomed to fail. Although the United States has a lot of stock in the ASEAN economic system, the increase is very limited, especially after China becomes ASEAN's largest trading partner in 2020, the status of the United States, which is far away from thousands of rivers and mountains, has further declined, while China is connected to ASEAN, and ASEAN simply cannot bear the consequences of all-round confrontation with China.
However, Li Chenyang also reminded that there is still a significant gap between China's comprehensive strength, especially its military strength, and the United States, and even economically, China cannot completely replace the role of the United States. ASEAN's core foreign policy is "great power balance" and will not allow any major country to sit in Southeast Asia, so although some ASEAN countries are worried about the adverse consequences of the Sino-US game in Southeast Asia, they still welcome the US military presence in Southeast Asia. Li Chenyang said that in general, although ASEAN will no longer follow the old path of "one-sidedness" in favor of the United States, the recent series of diplomatic offensives launched by the Biden administration still have an objective impact on China's relations with ASEAN, and China should not underestimate this.