I read a lot of friends private message I said three quarters of thunderstorm, scared I quickly took a look, the first look at the third quarter net profit of 45 million, indeed like thunder, and then look at the revenue of 780 million seems to be no thunder, and then I can only seriously take a look, by the way to talk about personal views, not as investment advice!
First of all, let's look at Watson's financial operating income indicators:
Revenue in the third quarter of 2020: 993 million yuan; revenue in the third quarter of 2021: 779 million yuan, down -21.53% year-on-year in the single quarter. Revenue in the first three quarters of 2020: 1.566 billion yuan; revenue in the first three quarters of 2021: 2.129 billion yuan, an increase of +35.90% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2021.
This is actually what I said in the previous web link post, I don't know if you can understand it, take the 13-valent pneumococcal polysaccharide conjugate vaccine, The number of batches issued in the first three quarters of last year was 3.3126 million, basically the first three quarters belonged to the listed shop stage, that is to say, in the second and third quarters of last year, more than 2,000 vaccination points, synchronous shops and the first shot, so in the actual sales of this piece last year will be a centralized outbreak in the third quarter, and are all accounted for accounts receivable, so the performance of the third quarter of last year is actually beyond the expectations of many institutions, but the stock price is still not much performance.
We then from the third quarter of last year's batch issuance data, last year's third quarter of the approval of 3.3126 million pieces, but the first three quarters of last year's total revenue of only 1,566,763,745.68 yuan, last year's three quarterly reports did not separately write the 13-valent pneumonia vaccine receivables, then we from last year's annual report, 13-valent pneumonia approved 4.46 million, Sales revenue is only 1.658 billion yuan, obviously there will still be a certain gap between the approval and the actual sales, and I have drawn from the data of last year and this year that this batch is 3.5-4 months away from the actual sales, that is, 1.75 million to 2 million.
Therefore, the third quarter of last year belongs to the 13-valent pneumonia vaccine shop promotion stage, sales data soared, this year's market is relatively in stock, and this year belongs to the market sales points have goods, belongs to the replenishment stage, so last year's surge in the third quarter, compared with the actual injection of this year's three quarters, there will be a year-on-year decline, superimposed on the new crown vaccine and many other factors, this revenue is in line with my expectations.
That is, this year's batch is closer to the real sales data, although the same market inventory will be 3.5-4 months away from the batch sign, but we can calculate the approximate sales of this year through the batch issuance in the third quarter of this year, I don't know if you can understand this meaning? That is to say, this year's 13-price sales belong to the state of full market sales: 1.78 million that were not sold last year + 4 million units approved in the first three quarters of this year. If you delay by 4 months, you may sell about 5.2 million units for the whole year.
Then let's take a look at Watson's financial net profit metrics:
Net profit in the third quarter of 2020: 373 million yuan; net profit in the third quarter of 2021: 45 million yuan, down -87.92% year-on-year in a single quarter. Net profit in the first three quarters of 2020: 436 million yuan; net profit in the first three quarters of 2021: 364 million yuan, the first three quarters of the year-on-year decline of -16.33%. Last year, because the 13-valent pneumonia vaccine was not listed in the first quarter, it was equivalent to one quarter of the main sales, and this year, the 13-valence was sold for three quarters, so I estimate that the actual sales should be around 3-3.5 million.
We can see through the change in the income statement that management expenses increased by 70 million this year, research and development expenses increased by 182 million this year, other income this year government subsidies are 40 million more than last year, selling Yidao Biological income earned 52 million more, holding Jiahe Biological stock price fell, last year here is to earn 160 million, because the issue price of Jiahe is 24 yuan / share, and now fell to the close of 14.3 yuan / share on September 30, That is to say, this year also lost 0.94 billion, all this time, and Yunnan Baiyao stock speculation losses. All this net profit, you can't simply look at the final data, how much is this calculated? In fact, the research and development costs are a bit beyond my expectations, I began to think that the clinical costs will also be paid partly, it may be about 80 million, good guys, more than a hundred million!
Therefore, from the perspective of these two indicators, in addition to the net profit exceeding my expectations, I did not expect that Jiahe Bio would fall so much, and it was not a big thunder! Not so exaggerated ha! Besides, Watson has fallen from 96 to 57, another roller coaster, really torturing us old shareholders.
Let's take a look at the other indicators:
1, the third quarter of last year's total assets of 8.557 billion yuan, the third quarter of this year's total assets of 12.496 billion yuan, an increase of 3.939 billion yuan year-on-year, his three quarterly reports disclosed is compared with the end of last year's annual report, with me to engage in these.
2, the third quarter of last year's net assets attributable to the shareholders of listed companies were 5.776 billion yuan, and the net assets attributable to shareholders of listed companies in the third quarter of this year were 8.107 billion yuan, an increase of 2.331 billion yuan year-on-year.
3. The inventory in the third quarter of last year was 445 million yuan, and the inventory in the third quarter of this year was 817 million yuan, and the inventory increased by 372 million yuan.
As for the changes in other shareholders, the legendary richest man came in, this is not my main concern, I am more concerned about the sale of Watson's 13-valent pneumonia vaccine, this year's other hopes are not, can only look at the 13 price, because HPV has just been approved, this year can not create performance, mRAN new crown vaccine is still in the october pregnancy stage, it has not yet landed, but also to wait until the spring blossoms, so this year want to complete the equity incentive 1.2 billion net profit target can only be: First, Jiahe Biological stock price up. Second, Watson's 13-valent pneumonia vaccine went to sea to sell 2 million doses in Morocco. Third, ACYW135 tetravalent meningitis gets orders through the WHO's PQ.
The above is my personal thinking, not as an investment basis! Please like the friends to like a thumbs up, dislike the friends to spray lightly!
So, after reading the third quarterly report of Watson Biology, do you think it is a risk or an opportunity?