Affected by supply chain bottlenecks, port congestion and other factors, us prices are soaring, or will usher in the most expensive year-end shopping season. In September, the country's inflation continued to explode, with the CPI rising as much as 5.4% year-on-year. Among them, the price of U.S. beef has risen from $12/lb in June to the current $16.97/lb (about 237 yuan/kg).
According to the latest report on October 28, the US media wrote that inflation in the United States may face a "risk of getting out of control". Analysts at Oxford Economics in the United Kingdom have predicted that inflation in the United States will continue to explode, even much higher than the Fed's inflation target of 2%, and will remain above 3% by the middle of 2022. Former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan held a similar view.
However, the Fed is still clinging to the "inflation temporary theory". The dean of Queen's College cambridge recently pointed out that if the Fed does not abandon this erroneous view in time and takes relevant measures to control the inflationary pressure that continues to explode, it may eventually have to urgently turn to the austerity stance, which will cause serious damage to the United States and even the global market, making the biggest mistake in more than 40 years.
A poll shows that Americans are particularly uneasy about watching the prices of daily necessities such as food and gasoline rise at record speeds, and their confidence in the economic recovery is getting smaller. 44% of Americans surveyed are not optimistic about their country's ability to recover. In the latest Forecast for the Atlanta Fed, real GDP growth in the United States in the third quarter has fallen to 0.2%, far below the 6.7% in the second quarter.
In fact, the U.S. economic outlook has long since become pessimistic. A study by Blanche-Frauer and Bryson earlier this month showed that the U.S. economy will enter a recession this fall. In this case, the Fed may change its attitude.
Given that U.S. prices remain high, it is widely expected that the Fed may begin to scale back its bond purchases after the November 2-3 interest rate meeting, which is expected to be $120 billion per month.
Text | Lu Jiamin title | Xu Xiaobing Figure | Lu Wenxiang | Liao Lisi