"Analyze" Harden's Paradox: The reduction in the number of free throws is not only due to a change in rules

After the start of the new season, the Nets suffered a difficult start, they only 2 wins and 2 losses after 4 games, they lost to the Bucks and Hornets in the first week, they exposed a lot of problems in the game, the most worrying for fans is Harden, he is now playing an unusually difficult situation, he can only average 17.3 points per game, his true shooting rate is a pitiful 48.4%, Although the number of assists can reach 8.3 times, but the number of mistakes is a staggering 4.8, in addition to the above data, there is a sharp reduction in data that deserves everyone's attention - the number of free throws.

In harden's first four games of the new season, he only made 12 free throws, which is a very fantastic statistic, knowing that in Harden's fully healthy 19-20 season, 33 of the 68 games he played had more than 12 single free throws.

In addition to Harden, Nets coach Nash also expressed dissatisfaction with harden after the game with the new rules of the league, which require the referee to control the protection of offensive players, protect the interests of defenders, cancel the illegal offense of offensive players and ignore fouls.

Harden has always been able to create fouls in the jump shot over the past few seasons, especially when he stole three-pointers, and now the league has visibly cut these fouls made by Harden, but I'm not sure even most of the decline can be attributed to changes to the new rules.

What is the reason for harden's sharp drop in free throws?

Looking at the whole league, the odds of blowing three-point fouls have been directly cut in half, and the probability of three-point fouls being blown off last season was 1.42%, which has dropped sharply to 0.75% this season. We use the full stats to get a feel for the situation, the new season has played a total of 96 games, there are currently 28 three-point fouls, according to this rhythm converted to last season, now we should see 53 three-point fouls is.

In this way we can meet Harden's individual data, big data changes can foresee the impact of small samples, if you are interested, you can look back at all hardened three-point projection videos this season, to determine for yourself whether Harden's three-point shooting has been fouled, his three-point foul rate is significantly declining, his three-point foul rate in the 19-20 season is 7.79%, and this season is only 3.23%, he can only get 1 foul per 31 shots, and in the past he can get 2.5.

Obviously, this alone does not explain the decline in hardened free throw counts. Most of the changes can actually be traced back to his dribbling break-through into a lack of strength.

We looked at the NBA's official website data, we will find that Harden in the front court per 36 minutes of the touch rate is more than in the past two seasons, in the 19-20 season, his touch rate per 36 minutes is only 24.4, this season this year this data has increased to 31.4, but this does not mean that Harden's efficiency will increase, his breakthrough efficiency has dropped very obviously, his efficiency of breaking through to cause fouls has a frightening decline, from 12% in the 19-20 season to 3.6% this season (Last season this efficiency value was 8.2%).

The NBA's adjustment of fouls is not only based on jump shots, you are interested in looking for cases in the video to see, before the foul rules are adjusted, some players who are good at creating fouls may be easy to get the care of the referee, based on the "fame" of some players The referee may blow on the balls that can be blown or not, and those star players are taken care of under such favorable conditions.

But Harden also seems to have lost some explosive power. Watching videos of his offense and shots under the basket this season, you'll see plenty of examples of this, where he created an initial advantage with his dribbling rhythm and speed, but by the time he broke through to reach the basket, that advantage was gone, which led to him having to make awkward shooting attempts through and around defenders who were often in solid positions.

The new rules certainly played a role in his drop in the number of free throws, but the change in his aggressiveness and offensive tendencies, as well as the noticeable decline in his athleticism, appear to have been part of a larger drop in his free throw count. Maybe he's struggling to get himself into shape, waiting for the annoying injury to be resolved. It could also be that injuries accumulated over the past few seasons have caused his permanent losses. But Harden got a different result, not just because the rules have changed, but because he's a different player now, even if it's only temporary.