2021-10-28China West Securities Co., Ltd. Cui Yan conducted a study on Aikodi and released a research report "Performance in line with expectations Electric Intelligent Acceleration Development", this report gives a buy rating to Aikodi, believing that its target price is 18.75 yuan, the current stock price is 13.53 yuan, and the expected increase is 38.58%.
Ikodi (600933)
Event overview
The company released the 2021 third quarterly report: 2021Q1-Q3 revenue of 2.35 billion yuan, an increase of 34.9% year-on-year; attributable net profit of 280 million yuan, an increase of 10.2% year-on-year, deduction of non-attributable net profit of 220 million yuan, an increase of 7.0%. Among them, the 2021Q3 revenue was 780 million yuan, an increase of 9.3% year-on-year, an increase of 1.3% month-on-month; the net profit attributable to the mother was 0.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 26.9%, a decrease of 10.0% month-on-month, and the net profit of non-attributable to the mother was 0.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.6%, which was basically flat month-on-month.
Analytical decisions:
Continuous improvement in revenue sequentially can be expected
2021Q1-Q3 company revenue of 2.35 billion yuan, +34.9% year-on-year, of which 2021Q3 revenue of 780 million yuan, year-on-year +9.3%, month-on-month +1.3%, we judge that the year-on-year increase is mainly due to the mass production of new projects to offset part of the impact of lack of cores, the share of growth against the trend. The company is expected to obtain new projects during the life of new projects, and the new energy vehicle projects, thermal management system projects, and automotive vision system projects are expected to account for more than 50% of the new sales revenue during the life cycle of 2021H1. It is expected that with the gradual easing of the impact of core deficiency and the gradual mass production of new projects, the company's revenue is expected to accelerate.
Gross profit margin continues to be under pressure and expense rates are reasonably controlled
The gross profit margin of the company in 2021Q3 was 24.8%, -3.2pct sequentially, mainly due to the increase in overseas shipping fees and the increase in raw material prices. In 2021Q3, the company's sales expense ratio, management expense ratio and R&D expense ratio were 1.2%, 7.8% and 6.0% respectively, and the month-on-month ratio was -0.3pct, -0.1pct and +0.4pct respectively. Financial expenses were $0.07 million, compared to -$0.01 million last year, mainly due to exchange rate fluctuations. Exchange rate fluctuations not only affect finance expenses, but are also the main reason for the company's fair value change gain or loss, with a fair value change gain or loss of -0.3 billion yuan in 2021Q3, a significant increase compared with 0.3 billion yuan in the same period last year. Affected by the decline in gross margin and the increase in expense ratio, the net profit margin in 2021Q3 reached 10.7%, -1.7pct sequentially. The 2021Q3 excluding non-recurring gains and losses on fair value changes, government subsidies and other non-recurring gains and losses, non-attributable net profit was flat month-on-month, with the quarter-by-quarter repair of overseas demand and the gradual mass production of new orders, superimposed short-term fluctuations are gradually eliminated, and the performance is expected to stabilize and recover.
Electric intelligence accelerates the development of globalization and continues to advance
The demand for aluminum alloy for new energy vehicles is more urgent, we expect that the supporting value of bicycles can increase by 50%-100%; and aluminum alloys are based on light weight, high dimensional stability, strong corrosion resistance, high thermal conductivity and electrical conductivity when manufacturing complex and thin-walled castings, and have a large application space in automotive vision systems, electric power steering systems, electronic control units, etc., conforming to intelligent development. The company is expected to obtain new projects during the life of new projects, new Valeo, Continental, United Electronics, Eberher, Nidec, BorgWarner, Huichuan Technology, Bunge, Hikvision, Sunny Group, Sagitar Juchuang, Weilai, Zero Run and other electric intelligent projects, 2021H1 to obtain new energy vehicle projects, thermal management system projects, automotive vision system projects during the life of the expected new sales revenue accounted for more than 50%.
We expect the company's wiper products (including motor housings, connecting rod brackets, drive arms, etc.) to reach 30% of the global market share, and the market share of other products is not more than 10%, there is still a lot of room for improvement. With the steady advancement of the company's intelligent manufacturing, the production efficiency brought by the "digital" factory has been greatly improved, and the cost-effective advantage has become more and more obvious, which will accelerate the grab of global share, and the market share is expected to continue to increase.
Investment advice
We are optimistic about the company's market share in the field of traditional products continues to increase, and the development of electric intelligent supporting business on the revenue pull, comprehensively considering the impact of the gradual repair of overseas demand and the rise in raw material prices, adjust the profit forecast: it is expected that the company's revenue in 2021-23 will be 31.0/37.8/45.2 billion yuan unchanged, and the net profit attributable to the mother will be adjusted from 4.8/6.4/780 million yuan to 4.4/6.5/790 million yuan, and the EPS will be 0.51/0.75/0.92 yuan. Corresponding to the closing price of 13.49 yuan / share on October 27, 2021, pe is 26/18/15 times, considering the high growth of the electric intelligence business, it is maintained to give 25 times PE in 2022, and the target price is adjusted from 18.50 yuan to 18.75 yuan, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk Warning
The impact of the lack of cores exceeded expectations; the demand for overseas passenger cars improved less than expected; and the price of raw materials rose more than expected.
A total of 15 institutions have given ratings in the last 90 days, 11 buy ratings and 4 overweight ratings; the average target price of institutions in the past 90 days has been 19.57; the Securities Star Valuation Analysis Tool shows that 600933 good companies are rated 3 stars, good prices are rated 3 stars, and valuations are 3 stars.