Former Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd is ready to write an article in the US journal "Diplomacy" to analyze that the next decade will be a "dangerous era" in the Taiwan Strait, and if the Taiwan Strait can not have any military conflict before 2030, it will be the "key to success" for the United States.
Kevin Rudd, who has Chinese ancestry, has some experience in studying Chinese issues, and his views are indeed somewhat different. He first asserted that there could be a war in the Taiwan Strait within 10 years, mainly based on the following: First, "China's top management believes that the power of the United States has undergone an 'irreversible decline.'" That is, China will believe that the United States, which is laying off from world leadership positions, may not be able to stop China's unified action in the next 10 days. Second, "the U.S. Department of Defense report has made it clear that the PLA is building a 'world-class' fighting force that can compete with the U.S. military, and that it is expected to achieve this goal by 2027." Rudd, who is well versed in China's way of governing the country, obviously believes that once China formulates a major national strategic plan, it will definitely make every effort to achieve it. Third, "the top brass in Beijing has understood that 'there can be no peaceful reunification with Taiwan.'" It is necessary to be reunified, it is inevitable that reunification is the only way for China, and there can be no peaceful reunification, there is only non-peaceful reunification.
If there is no conflict in 10 years, the cost of China's reunification will exceed the country's affordability limit, and it will be difficult for China to launch a unified armed action. So the United States is successful
But Kevin Rudd's prediction was clearly wrong.
First, Rudd was incorrect in his analysis of the motives for the conflict in the Taiwan Strait. If there is a conflict in the Taiwan Strait, the fundamental reason will not be triggered by China's belief that the power of the United States is declining, but because it will break through the three insurmountable "Taiwan independence" and separatist red lines of the "Anti-Secession Law." Once the red line is broken, even if the United States is still at the peak of power, China will take decisive actions to safeguard unity at all costs. During the War to Resist US Aggression and Aid Korea, China was not afraid of the United States, let alone Today's China.
Second, they have no understanding of the strategic development goals of the Chinese armed forces. It is true that China has the "three-step" development goal of the military and the goal of building a hundred-year army, but it does not have the goal of "building a 'world-class' combat force that can compete with the US military" by 2027. Whether or not it has the military capability to comprehensively compete with the US military is only one of the factors to be considered in resolving the Taiwan issue. At China's doorstep, China now has confidence in the US military's courage to fight and win. If the situation is forced, the Chinese People's Liberation Army will now intervene to solve the Taiwan issue, and will not wait until it can fully compete with the US military.
Third, the mainland has not given up its efforts for "peaceful reunification." At present, it is a fact that the possibility of "peaceful reunification" is artificially decreasing, and the possibility of "reunification by force" is forced to increase. However, the mainland will neither abandon its efforts for "peaceful reunification" nor make a commitment not to use force.
Perhaps, Rudd's wish that he did not want a military conflict in the Taiwan Strait was a good wish, but he was only afraid that it would backfire.
The mainland may not necessarily settle the Taiwan issue because of the decline of the United States, but the "Taiwan independence" separatist forces on the island of Taiwan may not be able to wait for the decline of the United States, and while the United States is still at the peak of power in the world, it will engage in a series of "Taiwan independence" separatist blind moves and detonate the cross-strait war in advance. Even the opportunity of the new crown epidemic in Taiwan wants to take advantage of the opportunity to break into the World Health Organization, improve the level of exchanges with senior US officials and repeatedly challenge the one-China principle, and purchase US weapons to resist reunification at the expense of blood, and have repeatedly touched the red line delineated by the "Anti-Secession Law." It should be known that the mainland has repeatedly maintained a high degree of restraint in its provocative activities against the "Taiwan independence" separatist forces, but restraint is limited, and it is intolerable that perhaps before 2030, Rudd's desire to "have no military conflict" in the Taiwan Strait will be disappointed.
In fact, if the Taiwan issue is solved by 2030, the United States will be truly "successful", because if the United States wants to open up, it can be relieved. Otherwise, the United States will never be able to "succeed."