Writer / Hu Yi Dao & Ming Hong Dao
The terrorist attack on the Dasu hydropower station, which has attracted great attention from Chinese and even international public opinion, has finally made progress in the investigation in stages.
At 11:52 p.m. on August 12, the website of the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs published an important message, and Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Hua Chunying answered reporters' questions on the progress of the Pakistani government's announcement of the investigation into the Dasu terrorist attack.
Judging from the results of the investigations released so far, it has been clear who carried out the terrorist attacks on Chinese and what kind of organization.
Surprisingly, the network of terrorist organizations behind the attackers was even supported by Indian and Afghan intelligence groups. In particular, what role did Indian intelligence organizations play in this incident?
At the same time, Pakistan said it will continue to dig deep behind these support forces and beware of them creating incidents again. Of course, one more point has been made clear, the Pakistani side promised to continue to arrest those who are currently hiding in Afghanistan, and China and Pakistan will join hands to severely punish the real culprits.
1
On August 12, the Pakistani government held a press conference to announce the latest progress in the Pakistani investigation into the Dasu terrorist attack.
The Palestinian side said that the case was planned in Afghanistan and specifically carried out by the Swat branch of "Bata"; the attacker was trained in Afghanistan, and the vehicle he used was purchased from Afghanistan; some suspects had been arrested in Pakistan, and the rest were now in Afghanistan; and the terrorist network to which the attacker belonged was supported by Indian and Afghan intelligence services.
A reporter asked Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Hua Chunying, what is China's comment on this?
Hua Chunying said that the Chinese side is highly concerned about the pakistani side's significant progress in the investigation of the relevant terrorist attacks in a relatively short period of time, and appreciates the positive efforts made by the Pakistani side. At present, further investigation by the Pakistani side is still ongoing. In accordance with the important consensus reached by the leaders of the two countries, the two sides will find out the truth of all facts, and on this basis, investigate and severely punish the real perpetrators.
At the same time, the two sides will continue to upgrade and strengthen the security cooperation mechanism to ensure the safety of China's projects, personnel and institutions in Pakistan.
From this text, we can draw several important messages:
First, the Suicide Terrorist Attack was carried out by the Swat branch of the "PakistanItuban" (TTP); second, these personnel were mainly trained in Afghanistan and then infiltrated Pakistan to carry out the attack, and some suspects have been caught; third, Indian and Afghan intelligence services have supported the terrorist network to which the attacker belongs; fourth, further investigation of the incident is still ongoing, and China and Pakistan will continue to join forces to pursue the perpetrators.
Looking back at the terrorist attack, the dasu hydropower station commuter shuttle exploded on the morning of July 14, local time, killing at least 13 people, including 9 Chinese, and 28 other Chinese injured. The bombing was the largest casualty incident for Chinese citizens in Pakistan.
At one point, pakistan's government said the accident was a gas leak caused by a mechanical failure that triggered a bus explosion. However, it was later stated that explosives were found through inspection. It was then characterized as a terrorist attack. China sent a team of 15 experts to the site on July 17, accompanied by pakistani colleagues.
After characterizing it as a terrorist attack, China and Pakistan condemned the attack in the strongest terms. Moreover, this incident has also received great attention from the United Nations Security Council. In accordance with its initial commitments, the Pakistani side conducted a thorough investigation into the incident and informed the Chinese side of the results of the investigation.
Pakistani media reports said pakistani foreign minister Kooleh disclosed that the terrorist network to which the attackers belonged was supported by the Indian intelligence groups "India Investigation and Analysis Agency (RAW)" and the Afghan National Security Agency (NDS). The Swat branch of bata carried out the terrorist attack under the orders of hostile intelligence agencies (HIAs).
Pakistan's Express Tribune revealed some details of the attack. For example, the Pakistani government investigated 36 surveillance video footage, and the scope of the investigation was enormous. Iqbal, a representative of Pakistan's anti-terrorism department, said that a thumb and limb belonging to the suicide bomber were found at the crime scene.
Iqbal said the attack involved 14 different characters, led by a man named Tariq, who belonged to the "Bata" group. A total of 3 suspects have been arrested in Pakistan.
Iqbal revealed that Tariq and another suspect, Muawiya, were trained in Afghanistan by the Indian Bureau of Investigation and Analysis and Afghanistan. The suicide bomber, Khalid aka Sheikh, was an Afghan citizen.
The attackers slammed a car loaded with explosives into a commuter shuttle. "In this explosion, the killer used about 100 to 120 kilograms of high-explosive drugs." Iqbal added.
Moreover, Iqbal stressed that video footage, cellphone data analysis, investigations of local facilitators and identification of the cars used in the explosion all indicate that the TTP in Afghanistan planned the attack and that senior RAW and NDS officials were directing the operation in Afghanistan.
However, a Reuters reporter said that it had received information from the "Bata" side, saying that they were not involved in the incident.
2
Indian and Afghan national intelligence agencies were named in the attack, much to the surprise of many.
Pakistan said that what other bad moves indian intelligence agencies have made needs further investigation. Reuters reported on August 13 that an Indian government official denied the allegations by pakistan and said Pakistan had made similar allegations many times in the past.
Reuters, on the other hand, said it could not immediately contact the Afghan Foreign Ministry for comment on the matter.
Zhou Rong, a senior researcher at the Chongyang Institute of Financial Research at the National People's Congress, told "One Knife" that the Indian Investigation and Analysis Bureau had been active in a wide range of south Asian regions such as Nepal, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and Afghanistan, such as engaging in disgraceful activities such as sabotage, assassination and funding of rebel forces.
Arguably, the reputation of this Indian national intelligence agency is as bad as that of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) in the United States. Moreover, the investigative and analytical bureau of India sometimes bypasses the government and Parliament, sometimes embarrassing and embarrassing the government. It is the Indian government's main external intelligence gathering unit, equivalent to the Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Home Affairs of India, or similar to the Pakistani Tri-Services Intelligence Service.
The Directorate of Investigations and Analysis is directly subordinate to the Prime Minister of India, with the participation of the Chief of Staff of the Indian Army and the Intelligence Service of the Ministry of Home Affairs of India, whose superior unit is the Cabinet Secretariat of India, which has the authority to report directly to the Prime Minister of India and deal exclusively with strategic work related to international intelligence.
According to Zhou Rong, the intelligence agency was formally established on September 21, 1968, and its central department is currently operating in the side compartment of the Cabinet Secretariat Building in India. The peculiarity of the agency is that it is not subject to oversight by the Indian Parliament and is also a member of the Joint Intelligence Commission of India. More reporting to the Cabinet Secretary-General, but daily briefings must be written to India's National Security Adviser.
In terms of internal structure, the Indian Bureau of Investigation and Analysis is the largest intelligence agency in the entire South Asian region, and even in some respects one of the largest intelligence agencies in the world, and its responsibilities even involve the security of India's nuclear facilities. Since its inception, it has been the main assistant to the Indian government in foreign strategy and foreign policy, but its role declined between 1977 and 1990. Its role rebounded after 2000.
At present, there is also a saying in India that the work of the Indian Investigation and Analysis Bureau is politicized, and the professional work has a strong official style. Many bureau officials look more at the face and willingness of the Indian prime minister. Whatever the political winds in the Prime Minister's Office, they do.
So, what are the basic objectives of this intelligence agency?
Monitor the political, military, economic, scientific and technological development of India's neighboring countries, pay special attention to the collection of relevant intelligence from countries with India's national security interests and foreign strategic relations, influence international public opinion and the work of foreign governments, be responsible for covert intelligence operations and counter-terrorism operations aimed at defending India's national interests, and carry out strike operations in all actions that pose a threat to India The Intelligence Bureau participates in the implementation of crackdown operations, paying special attention to the elimination of opposition forces that pose a threat to India's national security (both at home and abroad).
The organization is well-structured and generally unknown to outsiders. The Bureau is subordinate to the Prime Minister and consists of the Joint Secretary (JOINT SECRATRY), the Office of Special Operations, and the Director of Security Affairs. Within the agency, there is a dedicated Pakistan Office, responsible for the South Asia and China Affairs Office, the Middle East and Africa Affairs Office, the Other State Affairs Office, the Electronic Technology and Internal Security Office and other related agencies.
Wang Nan, a special academic adviser at the Institute of Silk Road Strategy at Shanghai University of Foreign Chinese, told "Supplementary Knife" that India's Investigation and Analysis Bureau is similar to the US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) and the Soviet KGB (KGB). It is the strongest and largest intelligence agency in India, and it is also responsible for counter-insurgency, subversion and certain counter-espionage tasks.
It mainly carries out external intelligence tasks through espionage and reconnaissance means, and collects and sorts out political, military, economic, religious, and other intelligence of the other side. The bureau's border intelligence work and arrest work against neighboring countries accounts for a large proportion of India's entire external intelligence system.
Zhu Yongbiao, director of the Afghanistan Research Center of Lanzhou University, revealed that the Indian Investigation and Analysis Bureau not only engaged in intelligence collection and research, but also fostered many extremist, terrorist, and separatist forces opposing "hostile countries," and planned and supported many sabotage activities against other countries.
3
Regarding what the Pakistani side said, Indian and Afghan intelligence organizations were involved in this terrorist attack, and the "patch knife" asked the views of many Experts on South Asian issues.
Wang Nan told "Patch One Knife" that as we all know, although the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor and the "Belt and Road" initiative are widely popular in the international community and have received positive responses from many countries, saying that they want to participate in it, there are also a very small number of countries that do not agree with it or hold an opposing attitude.
Among them, India has publicly opposed the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor and the Belt and Road Initiative. Pakistan even believes that India has been deliberately sabotaging the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. The Pakistani side also said that it has a lot of evidence in this regard.
On November 14, 2020, Pakistani Foreign Minister Irreshi and military spokesman Iftihar said at a press conference that according to information intercepted by Pakistani intelligence agencies, Indian intelligence agents have organized an armed force of about 700 people in Balochistan province in southern Pakistan and plan to launch attacks on the entire China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. Pakistani military spokesman Iftihar said, "The Indian side has allocated a total of about $60 million for this armed force." ”
Therefore, it is not excluded that the culprit of the Dasu attack is an external force. Pakistan also claims to have captured agents of the Indian Bureau of Investigation and Analysis in Pakistan. His mission is to sabotage the CPEC.
The Afghan National Security Agency is the Afghan government's intelligence agency, and most of its members are trained by the U.S. Department of Homeland Security and NATO.
Wang Nan believes that there are good relations between India and the Afghan government, and India and Pakistan are each other's old enemies and do not recognize the Afghan Taliban. The Afghan government is dissatisfied with Pakistan and is even more adversarial to the Afghan Taliban. Therefore, it is entirely possible that there is a cooperative relationship between the Indian Investigation and Analysis Bureau and the Afghan National Security Agency.
However, an expert, speaking on condition of anonymity, believes that the possibility of the two agencies cooperating in a serious suicide attack on Chinese seems unlikely, judging from existing experience. Even if india's bureau of investigation and analysis wanted to do so, the Afghan National Security Agency might not agree, after all, the Afghan government has good relations with China.
Zhu Yongbiao told "Making Up a Knife" that the India-Pakistan conflict has a long history, and the contradictions between Afghanistan and Pakistan are almost irreconcilable, which is an important background for India-Arab relations in recent years and the common targeting of Pakistan.
After 2001, India deliberately increased its investment in Afghanistan, especially after Ghani came to power, India-Arab relations have become increasingly close, India has maintained close ties with various forces such as Ghani and Abdullah, and has always opposed the Taliban. Therefore, in recent years, the cooperation between India and Afghanistan has been very deep, and India's infiltration of Afghan intelligence and security agencies is also very serious, so it is not surprising that the cooperation between the two sides has undermined Pakistan and China-Pakistan cooperation.
Previously, the China-related security incidents in Afghanistan were also suspected of having an Indian background behind them.
Zhu Yongbiao believes that of course, due to the special nature of India-Pakistan and Pakistan-Afghanistan relations, before there is no conclusive evidence, it should also be cautious about the Indian and Afghan factors in the attack, as the Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman said, "China firmly opposes any force using terrorism for geopolitical private interests."
Zhou Rong believes that as far as the Dasu terrorist attack is concerned, although the relevant countries have alleged the involvement of Afghan intelligence agencies, it is still impossible to determine whether the agency participated in the terrorist attack, how deep the degree of participation was, and how to participate.
The Islamic Republic of Afghanistan has always maintained a comprehensive strategic partnership with China, and the Afghan government has never done anything to harm China's interests in the past, and has also extradited some East Turkistan elements to China. Therefore, there is no reason for the Afghan intelligence agencies to wade through the muddy waters of anti-China, and whether the Afghan intelligence agencies were involved in the terrorist attack in the Arrivals to the Soviet Union still needs a period of observation and sufficient evidence, and it is not appropriate to draw hasty conclusions.
As for the Indian intelligence agency, Zhou Rong believes that this is a different matter. India is unlikely to publicly and directly support Bata. In the past, there was a lot of tension between the Government of India and the Afghan Taliban. India continues to crack down on Islamic extremism in its territory, and it is difficult to see any connection between India and Islamic extremist groups, in part because the militants active in Kashmir are all Characteristic of Islamic Extremism.
Of course, it is not known whether the Indian intelligence agencies created some kind of "accident" for their anti-China purposes. Chinese public opinion is also the first time that India is supporting the "Bata" branch. In the past, India's support for the "Balochistan Liberation Army" and the "Balochistan Liberation Front" in Pakistan has sufficient factual basis and even hard evidence.
Of course, we respect the efforts of the Pakistani government, army and intelligence agencies in investigating this grave terrorist attack and look forward to continuing to trace the root causes in great detail.
Since 2015, Pakistan's military and government have repeatedly claimed that India's Bureau of Investigation and Analysis has been using its network of overseas agencies to provide funding and training to "Bata". Pakistan believes that as soon as the "Bata" appeared, the indian and Afghan intelligence services quickly "targeted it" and began to infiltrate and co-opt key personnel of the organization.
A previous article in Pakistan's "Dawn" newspaper said that the Afghan intelligence agency, the General Directorate of National Security, had publicly admitted to participating in the operation of "Bata". Back in 2012, advisers to the International Security Assistance Force in Afghanistan under NATO leadership said the Afghan military "allowed 'Bata' to operate within its borders."
In 2017, Abdullah Abdullah, the current chairman of the Afghan National Reconciliation Commission and then Chief Executive Officer (equivalent to Prime Minister), also said that Bata had a "foothold" in Afghanistan, but firmly denied the government's support for it.
However, in 2015, pakistan daily newspapers quoted Khalid, the head of Afghanistan's General Directorate of State Security, as saying that "Bata" had launched a "tit-for-tat attack" on Pakistan's Badabel military base, underscoring the support of the "State Security Directorate" under its leadership for "Bata".
On December 16, 2014, Bata launched a terrorist attack on an army public school in the northwestern Pakistani city of Peshawar, killing 149 people, including school workers and children, including 132 of them. Pakistan believes that the perpetrators are "Bata" elements composed of 1 Chechen, 3 Arabs and 2 Afghans, the planner is Omar Krasani, a key member of the organization, and the "financial backer" behind the scenes is the Indian Bureau of Investigation and Analysis.
Assim Badjewa, who had just stepped down as chairman of the CPEC Authority, who was then director of Pakistan's Tri-Armed Forces Public Relations Bureau, said at a Briefing in February 2015 that "India is funding 'Bata' operating in places like Balochistan" and that "such a large-scale operation cannot be carried out unless they are funded by external forces.".
In addition to the Indian Investigation and Analysis Bureau, Pakistan's statement at the time was the same as the preliminary conclusion of the dasu hydropower project investigation, accusing the Afghan National Security Directorate of also participating in the Peshawar terrorist attack.
In 2017, after the unconditional surrender of former Bata spokesman Ihzanura Ihsan to Pakistani authorities, she admitted in a confessional video that the Indian Bureau of Investigation and Analysis and Afghanistan's General Directorate of National Security provided financial support for Bata's activities. He also revealed that the leader of another terrorist group separated from Bata had also traveled to India for treatment after being injured.
But both India and Afghanistan denied the allegations at the time. A senior Afghan security official even bluntly stated in an interview with Reuters that "this is a conspiracy by Pakistan, which has been portraying itself as a victim of terrorism, when in fact it finances and supports terrorist activities against Afghanistan and India".
4
Although the Dasu terrorist attack has a preliminary result, we must be highly vigilant and prevent terrorists from attacking other China-Pakistan cooperation projects.
According to Pakistani journalist Wajahat Kazmi on social media, the target of the initial plan of the "Bata" Swat branch was the Diamo-Barsha Dam, not the Dasu Hydropower Station.
Like the Dasu Dam, the Diamo-Basha Dam is also a hydroelectric dam located on a tributary of the Upper Indus River. On May 13, 2020, the China Power Construction Corporation-Pakistan Border Engineering Agency (FWO) consortium signed a general contracting contract for the construction of the barsha dam standard. The contract amount is close to 20 billion yuan.
In addition, at the press conference on the 12th, Pakistani Foreign Minister Kureshi revealed that further investigation by the Pakistani side is still underway, with the aim of finding all those involved in the attack. Pakistan will continue to apprehend the remaining perpetrators of the Dasu terrorist attacks, including those involved in those who fled to Afghanistan. Pakistan has submitted a request for mutual legal assistance to the Government of Afghanistan.
The Government of Pakistan reaffirms its strong commitment to arrest and bring to justice all those responsible for this heinous crime. "We will not allow any hostile forces to undermine the steely friendship between China and Pakistan."
So, what is the success rate of future pursuit?
Wang Nan told "Patch a Knife" that the Pakistani side said that some of the people involved in the case were hiding in Afghanistan and said that they would continue to pursue the murderer. This will be more difficult, first of all, this is the jurisdiction of Afghanistan and not the Pakistani side. Secondly, the current situation in Afghanistan is not only very complex, but also changing too quickly. Even if the Pakistani side has this heart, it may not be able to do so.
Zhu Yongbiao believes that the relationship between Pakistan and the Afghan government has deteriorated to a very serious point at present, and as the Taliban offensive in Afghanistan has become more and more vigorous, the mutual accusations and attacks between the two sides have reached a new peak.
Moreover, Afghanistan is also seeking Pakistan's "explanation" for the abduction and abuse of the daughter of the Afghan ambassador to Pakistan in Pakistan on July 16. Considering the current complex domestic political and security situation in Afghanistan, the afghan side is unlikely to accept Pakistan's accusations and will not cooperate with Pakistan's crackdown.
Zhou Rong told the "patch knife" that as for continuing to pursue the murderers, that is, some of the people involved in the case are hiding in Afghanistan, "I personally believe that the Pakistani military maintains normal relations with ata and the Afghan government, and if the Pakistani side's statement is sufficiently evidenced, it can find other suspects through the two directions of the Afghan government and atta, arrest them, and handle this case as an iron case, which can withstand the test of history." ”
(Pictures are from the Internet)