Hello everyone, today is Friday, October 1st.
Today is national day, Jiashu is here to wish everyone a happy holiday. Overnight gold continued to rebound as expected, wednesday we expect gold to rebound to 1750, and then began to fall, but the highest only rebounded to 1745, out of the new low of 1721, because the rebound is not in place, so there is no operation, yesterday gold began to rebound from 1721, we expect gold will rebound to test the position of 1760, and then fall back again, last night gold was very cooperative, the highest rebound test to 1764, back in place, The next thing to do is to let gravity drive gold down a new round!
Quotes Review:
After the opening of gold overnight, the low level of shock continued, the OPENING GOLD of the US session began to rise, affected by the main smashing, once rebounded to the 1764 line, and then encountered resistance began to fall slightly, and the daily line ended with a big sun!
Fundamental Analysis:
Although the rise of gold overnight has long been predicted, but the rebound speed is fast, the amplitude is large, many people are also worried about whether it will break through, last night's gold rally was driven by many reasons, not just the main smashing.
Overnight released a lot of data, but the biggest impact is the initial request, the initial request data in the previous years is basically white, because the overall job market is relatively stable, so everyone ignored the initial request data, but now the market is most concerned about tightening, and tightening an indispensable condition is full employment, the initial request is an important indicator of the job market, so the initial request is naturally very important.
The overnight release of the initial petition data was higher than the previous value and expectations, which made the market once again worried about the recovery of the US job market, and continued to make the market worry about the Fed opening the path of reduction, will it delay the reduction? Reducing the scale of the reduction? Slowing down the scale-in? This led to the market lowering expectations of a drawdown, which in turn was positive for gold, which was a big reason for last night's rally in gold.
Then the remaining few data, the core PCE is still worth referencing, although the quarterly final value is not as important as the month-on-month and year-on-year data, but with reference, the PCE annualized quarterly final value recorded 6.1%, consistent with the previous value and expectations, indicating that the inflation situation in the United States is still worrying, inflation is still running at a high level, so tonight's core PCE month-on-month and year-on-year data may also continue to remain at a high level, which will once again make tightening expectations strengthened, continue to bearish gold.
Therefore, it is still so concluded that this year's tightening is the general trend, although some data may affect the trend of gold in the short term, but this year or before the formal implementation of the reduction, gold will not have too good performance!
Technical analysis:
The technical side of gold is nothing to talk about, this wave of rebound is completely expected, gold from the high of September 27 1760 began to fall back, fell to 1727 when it predicted that gold will come out of a wave of retracement, back to 1750 near will open the decline again, so the advice given at that time is that the 1750 line can continue to short, but gold from 1727 rebound only to 1745, hourly oversold is not fully corrected, so there is no operation.
Then gold bottomed out again at 1721, and the previous 1745/1742, the two lows formed a bottom, and then began to go to the expected rebound, and finally went to the predicted point of 1760, so last night in the line near 1760 again into the market to short, next, is to see where gold can fall?
First of all, I think that gold has not built a bottom, if not to say that the bottom, it is only the bottom of the one-hour level, even the bottom of the 4 hours has not come out, and the daily level is still the bearish trend unchanged.
Then, gold fell back from 1760 to 1721, and then rebounded again to test 1760, which actually also came out of a bearish flag, according to the theoretical decline of the bearish flag, the target is near 1700, so next, we will wait patiently for 1700!
At present, in the short term, the hourly LEVEL MACD fast and slow line has just died, the decline has just begun, the bottom divergence of the 4-hour level has long said that it will go many divergences, will not drive gold out of the reversal trend of the rise, so the next will continue to walk multiple divergences, these two important short-term cycles are bearish trends unchanged, so the short single patiently hold, 1700 see!
The above analysis suggestions are for reference only, do not make any investment basis, the market is risky, and you need to be cautious when entering the market!!!