Ren Zeping left Evergrande, which was 3 years later than my prediction.
Not because of anything else, but because I like to watch theater. As an old drama bone in the real estate industry, I have watched too many plays, and this time I thought it would be more dramatic. I always thought it would be a copy of another play of that year.
Almost ten years ago, a real estate owner who was awarded a monument to the tree won an international award, and one day there was an international person to present the award, and I was invited to witness it. As a result, as soon as they met, a dramatic side appeared, "Hey, aren't you just the little Hu of the original Beacon advertisement, how did the notice write Jack Hu?" "When I saw that your name was followed by Professor Tsinghua, I thought I was mistaken, or you." ", embarrassed each other, and then the ceremony was solemnly carried out and recorded in the annals of history.
Therefore, after hearing that Ren Zeping went to Evergrande, I would unnaturally make up for the daily situation after Professor Xu and Chief Ren met.
But to tell the truth, Ren Zeping is a down-to-earth economist and the only person in the real estate industry who has seriously read the article. It's not that I'm arrogant, it's that everyone else is talking by mouth and hasn't written it.
Ren Zeping contributed two sentences and a theory to the real estate industry. The theory is the real estate cycle theory, he can draw the ups and downs of the real estate cycle, so amazing! More on that later.
Two sentences, one sentence is that the Chinese house is the best asset in the world, which does not need to be said, all those who do this line of work have been saying; the other sentence is the analytical framework of real estate, "long-term look at population, medium-term look at land, short-term look at finance."
My understanding, he means, long-term to look at supply and demand, but long-term supply and demand we do not know, with population to vaguely represent; the medium-term to see supply and demand, medium-term supply and demand we do not know, with land to see the general situation; short-term also depends on supply and demand, short-term supply and demand can not be calculated, but I know that it is closely related to financial policy.
Is this the deep logic of his theoretical framework?
If that's the meaning, is the framework of this foreign monk interesting?
Interesting, like everyone knows that there are dreams to pursue, but if jack said it, it is different. It has inspired thousands of people who think about what if. Similarly, with a value of 15 million, the effect is indeed different, and immediately the real estate industry experts have learned how to analyze the real estate market. Everyone is passing on the same sentence of word of mouth and innovating the development of the same sentence: "the first line looks at the population, the second line looks at the land, the third line looks at finance" and so on. As for how to see it, that's another course. It's about putting the results you want in front, and then looking at how to see how to lead to your conclusions.
Of course, this made me wonder for a long time, 15 million can not just stay in the situation of slipping, there should be some further research mathematical support below, support to the extent that it can be applied - but did not see. So I'll understand these conclusions from his experience. See what he studied, what research he has done, and what results he has produced. It didn't matter when I saw his grand theory of "Real Estate Cycle Theory", I was eager to buy it and learn it.
Although there have been many cyclical theories in the real estate industry, all of which are conclusive, they are all practical, neither have much theoretical education, but also have a purposeful nature, so I have always ignored them. Chief Ren said it differently, because he was speaking from a larger macroeconomic cycle, and he was right in the securities industry before, so I seriously read his book "Real Estate Cycle".
We know that if a motion can produce a cycle, it must have a fixed resilience, just like a pendulum, there is an earth attraction vertically downward, when it swings up, the attraction pulls it down, and so on, forming a cycle. The economic cycle is also because there is an invisible gravitational force, that is, when supply and demand are seriously imbalanced, the invisible hand of the market will pull it back and tend to balance. So the market, in greed and fear, oscillates cyclically, forming cycles.
So since we can calculate the cycle of the real estate market, what is its resilience, T =2π√ (L/g), what are l and g here? How can the period be calculated without these two quantities? Of course, the social sciences are more complex, it is impossible to calculate so precisely, and it can be concluded by induction, that is, to make some generalizations about all the past cycles, at least to calculate the probabilistic cycles.
The chief ren in the book is probably like this, he has a team, so it can be calculated very correctly. Using his cycle to examine the past, it is very consistent! Magical, right?
As soon as this law is found, what it will bring, everyone should also know, the great harvest!
That is to take the land at the low point of the cycle, and the high point is shipped! Buy and sell, buy and sell, that is invincible! That is, in the competition of the market, the real win-win situation - win twice, Boss Xu wins once, and Ren Chief wins once!
This is probably the most valuable research result of Ren Zong in the real estate industry. If you think about it, you spend 15 million to buy out the chief, and in the future, his research results will only quietly tell you, do not tell others, you can operate ahead of time, then the money earned is not only 15 million, but 150 billion. Therefore, Evergrande's investment is worth it.
However, Evergrande seems to have stumbled after serving as the chief in recent years, which shows:
Either the cycle theory is wrong, or it is right and Evergrande has not implemented it.
Of course, it will not be the former, if it is not right, such an article has long been deleted, is it the latter? So why?
There's a wonderful discovery of mine.
Just as Gauss took a fold of a pizza and found that bending it must be named "Gauss's wonderful law", the degree of brilliance is no less than it. Of course, I still lack an Einstein backhand to apply this to general relativity.
If you let go of this book, you go to the past articles and experts about the real estate cycle, and you go and read it, and you will find that they are all right, they are all complacent, but what they say is absolutely different.
What's going on?
Discover this mystery and you can be the chief. You can say the cycle right and be accurate in the case of a complex real estate market without any research.
Because the real estate market is a huge market that includes first-line, second-line, third-line, fourth- and fifth-line, different north-south and east-west differences, it is a broadband, that is to say, when the coastal areas such as Shenzhen begin to rise, Changchun and other northeastern regions may be falling, while Resource Cities such as Taiyuan have not moved in that decade, and there are a large number of cities in each state, so you can find such a target city as evidence of fluctuations in any of these time periods as a cycle. The fluctuation of a single line can be seen that there is a cycle, and a complex line cannot be accurately described. Therefore, it is also true to say anything.
You judge that the real estate is in the trough today, you can find 80% of the city data to support, if you say it is the peak, you can also find 80% of the city data to support, not 20%. It mainly depends on your selection points and data selection. Moreover, the opening time of each rise and fall is different, which is enough to drown out the overall fluctuation periodicity. So, without a rigorous scientific attitude, it's easy to say the right thing. This is like neighboring countries fighting, it is very good to aim, just shoot in one direction, always hit the territory of the other side, but to say that this is called aiming, it is not rigorous. So when you have a rigorous scientific attitude, in terms of the real estate cycle, you dare not say.
This is the reality of China's national real estate market research field, which leads to -
Those who don't understand really dare to say it, and those who really understand it dare not say it.
Those who do not seem to understand can say the right thing, but those who really understand cannot come to a definite conclusion.
Looking back, looking at the three-sentence analytical framework, it seems that there are also flaws.
You see the real estate pilot demonstration zone Shenzhen, in the past few decades the population has been growing continuously, never stopped, the scarcity of land has always been there, financial policies and the whole country are the same, but before March 2015, the house price is surprisingly low, the average price is less than 20,000, and it cannot be sold. After March 2015, these population and land conditions have not changed, and house prices have risen.
So the population depends on whether it is an effective demand for the population, no, it is useless to come more; land, if it is not speculation, which city's land is enough to build a house, and no one sleeps on the road. But if the people of the whole country come to speculate, it will not be enough. Therefore, the relationship between house prices and land and population, its correlation and correlation coefficients need to be further studied. If everyone thinks that the market is going to rise, they all enter the market to buy a house, and they should not rise; if they are not optimistic, no matter how much land supply is less, they do not enter the market to buy, it will not rise.
What is really related to the housing price level is the market temperature, which integrates market expectations, market supply and demand and related policies. The market temperature is measurable, and the market temperature is related to the product of the number of incoming heat molecules and the thermal energy carried by each hot molecule, which can be characterized by the characteristic values of the market. For example, if we use the change values such as the amount of view, the transaction cycle and the leverage ratio to characterize the change of this heat, and measure the critical value of different markets, this is very useful. All this has long been summarized in a hot air balloon model of house prices, which has been verified by the real market and will not be repeated.
I'm sorry, Chief Ren, I used your fuzzy analysis today to pour you a paste. The analytical criticism here is, of course, unscientific, but perhaps fair: sending off others the way they are.
Sarcastically, I hope that the research in the real estate industry can be serious, there is no culture, don't be fooled! Here also speaks of my own.
Finally, in order to be fairer, but also for Ren Zeping to seek justice: the annual salary of 15 million, said to give Qi.
The article was first published in the public account Cai Lighting Perspective, more real estate dry goods, lock the public account Cai Lighting Perspective.