The 2021 Shanghai Auto Show is in full swing, while the auto market is unevenly hot and cold. Although the Shanghai Auto Show attracted 1,000 exhibitors, some people still have a vague understanding of the changes in industry trends.
On the afternoon of April 18, at the "2021 Mainstream Automotive International Forum", Wang Xia, president of the Automotive Industry Branch of the China Council for the Promotion of International Trade and president of the China Chamber of International Commerce, emphasized the five major certainties of the development of the automobile industry, which seems to be a stabilizer for the industry, but it is actually a preventive injection.
Five certainties
Since last year, the repeated global epidemic and the ups and downs of the international political and economic situation have brought many uncertainties to the automobile industry, which is already in the wave of historic change. But Wang Xia believes: "Some things have always been certain, and some things are becoming more certain." ”
China's opening up will not stop, and the trend of economic improvement is still obvious, which is the greatest certainty. "In 2020, the signing of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and the completion of the negotiations on the China-EU Investment Agreement; this year's government work report points out that the negotiation process of the China-Japan-Rok Free Trade Agreement will be accelerated and active consideration will be given to joining the CPTPP," Wang said. These major measures will greatly improve the foreign trade and investment environment, make greater efforts to open up the domestic market, and bring more opportunities for 'going out'." ”
"Even if the epidemic is over, it will be difficult for the car market to regain its previous high growth." Wang Xia affirmed, "Since 2018, China's automobile sales have been negative growth for three consecutive years, although the first quarter of 2021 has increased significantly year-on-year, but compared with the same period in 2019 before the epidemic, the increase is only 1.8%, we must be prepared for long-term psychological response to low growth." ”
The knockout rounds are getting worse and more certain. Wang Xia analyzed: "Overcapacity will inevitably intensify competition and elimination, and new energy vehicles and traditional fuel vehicles cannot be avoided." In recent years, many 'new forces' have entered the automotive industry to make overcapacity more serious, resulting in the intensification of the survival of the fittest in the field of new energy and traditional vehicles. In 2021, the financing cost of automobile manufacturing enterprises will also be higher than last year, and car companies with poor financing capabilities and low operating quality will face greater operational pressure and even withdraw from the historical stage. ”
The overall direction of new energy vehicles remains unchanged. Wang Xia pointed out: "New energy vehicles will not be a short-term outlet. Macroscopically, 'carbon peak' and 'carbon neutrality' appeared in the government work report for the first time this year. In the automotive industry, the pressure of carbon reduction in the future will become a long-term driving force for the development of new energy vehicles. At the market level, although most of the new energy models on the market are selling at a loss, and the average annual sales of bicycles were less than 4,000 units last year, these cannot change the overall direction of new energy vehicles. ”
Only enterprises that have strategic determination and adhere to the basic logic of business can succeed. Wang Xia said: "A lot of business logic has not changed. For example, the number of charging piles is inversely proportional to the mileage anxiety, the business model that cannot make money is unsustainable, and the consumption upgrade will never stop. Adhering to the basic business logic, the test is the strategic determination of car companies. Of course, the biggest business logic is still user thinking, and now many car companies have elevated user operation to a supreme position, which can be said to have grasped the essence of the problem. ”
In Wang Xia's view, discovering and using the above five certainties can bring more confidence and stronger morale to automotive practitioners.
It is a stabilizer and a preventive shot
The day before the auto show, Wang Xia publicly emphasized the five major certainties, intended to enhance the confidence of the industry's development. However, combined with the current Development Trend of the Chinese Market and the Automobile Industry, behind this needle stabilizer, the meaning of preventive injection is stronger.
As a senior professional in the automotive industry, Wang Xia first analyzed from the perspective of changes in the international and domestic situation: "Comprehensively strengthening international cooperation, the Chinese market is the trend of the times", which means that multinational companies will further increase investment in the Chinese market, in the "Chinese auto market is also difficult to reproduce the high growth of the past, the elimination of the intensification" of the specific environment, the future of the Chinese automotive industry competition situation immediately highlighted.
Wang Xia proposed: "New energy is not an outlet. "Macroscopic view means that the automotive industry will definitely play an important role in China's "carbon neutrality" and "carbon peaking". China has further accelerated the transformation and upgrading of the automobile industry through the expansion of opening up and the introduction of advanced foreign technologies. For traditional automobile enterprises, they have to face the arduous test of two-front combat in the two battlefields of new energy vehicles and energy-saving vehicles. This involves those "business models that cannot make money are not sustainable", "car companies with poor financing ability and low operating quality will face greater operational pressure and even withdraw from the historical stage"... The above truth seems simple and has been mentioned many times by experts, but Wang Xia put it forward before the big day of the auto show that it is about to open, which not only explains the seriousness of the problem, but also his heartfelt heartfelt statement.
From the analysis of the macro situation, focusing on the automotive industry, and then expanding to new energy vehicles, it is logical to link to the business logic of enterprises... Analyzing President Wang Xia's speech in a meticulous manner, behind the five major certainties reflects a reality: the open door is opening wider and wider, and the elimination of the car market is extremely severe!
Therefore, on the surface, Wang Xia has given the industry a shot of stabilizer. In essence, this is a preventive shot. Wang Xia's speech warned auto practitioners: even if the market has a good momentum in the first quarter, do not be blindly optimistic about the future, because the more severe situation is still ahead, and we need to identify the direction, be down-to-earth, and forge ahead.