Today, the new energy market is thriving, and other sectors are pulling back. From yesterday, the northbound funds began to flow out, to today's net outflow of 3.042 billion, while superimposing today's large market adjustment range, down 3539, up 901, the disk showed a comprehensive correction trend, indicating that the short-term upward momentum is declining, short-term risk is increasing, short-term surge or continuous surge varieties should pay attention to profits, do not blindly stick to it.
The overall market is still rising in new energy, and other sectors are basically falling except for the military industry, so this situation will certainly not last too long, and it is time to pay attention to risks. The systemic risk of the large market is not, about 3500 points or so there is still a certain support, this point does not have to worry too much, just afraid that the market is not good, the stocks fell in a hurry, so we should focus on combining the third quarter financial report to do in-depth research on individual stocks, layout in advance, rather than chasing high.
New energy: Tesla's performance has soared and superimposed on policy support, detonating the new energy market
Just last week, after saying that liquor and new energy showed a seesaw effect, this week confirmed it, especially after Tesla's sharp increase in earnings in the third quarter and the super positive of customer reservations for 100,000 electric vehicles and the release of the country's news on carbon neutrality top-level policy design, the enthusiasm of the new energy sector was completely detonated. Ningde XX for the first time broke through the 600 yuan mark, than X Di stood firm at 300 yuan, superimposed industry beyond expectations of financial reports, other segments of the leading have soared, especially to Tianqi XX, Xinzhu X, Pu X as the representative of the upstream raw materials, sustained rise, either a new high, or close to the previous high, the Sino-US financial market new energy linkage rise, indeed relatively rare.
On October 24, 2021, the State Council issued the "Opinions on The Complete, Accurate and Comprehensive Implementation of the New Development Concept to Do a Good Job in Carbon Neutrality", which for the first time clearly put forward the top-level design of new energy development, requiring the vigorous development of new energy and new energy vehicles, and comprehensively benefiting the wind energy, photovoltaic, energy storage industry chain and new energy vehicle industry chain with strong certainty. Short-term market enthusiasm has been completely ignited, especially in the middle and upper reaches of the new energy industry chain, which has a lot to do with the price increase of raw materials this year.
Behind the shouts of new energy, although there are various good news and policy blessings, we must pay attention to risks, not only do not chase the rise casually, but consider the good cash at the time of the big rise, which is also the old problem of the A-share market, and the surge is difficult to continue. Or that sentence: the new energy track is suitable for short, medium and long-term operations, but the premise is not to chase high, choose a good target.
Liquor: The large consumption of liquor representatives, the stage rebound is in place, the profit chips begin to leave, and patiently wait for the adjustment to be completed
After entering October, liquor and the new energy sector formed a seesaw effect, first the liquor plate rebounded sharply for 2 weeks, and the internal differentiation of new energy was adjusted; then at the beginning of this week, liquor stopped, and new energy took turns to attack under the stimulation of various favorable stimuli. It seems that it is possible to switch back and forth between the two.
At present, the liquor sector has fully retraced, the amount of funds is flowing out sharply, northbound funds are also selling wildly, liquor has rebounded after about 2 weeks of trading days, the increase has not been small, and it is indeed necessary to consolidate the foundation to continue to rise. In fact, from the currently announced performance of high-end liquor, it is still the most certain plate, Moutai maintains 2-digit growth, willing, drunkards are more than 100% growth rate, even the regional small dragon head to drive tribute wine can give 80% growth rate, the performance of the liquor sector can be seen.
Short-term due to the high rebound in the early stage, more profit plates, while the new energy sector is hot, so the liquor plate in the rise of 2-3 weeks after the homeopathic adjustment, is expected to have at least 1 to 2 weeks of adjustment cycle, we do not have to worry, patiently wait for the adjustment to be completed, the fourth quarter opportunity is still there.
Other food and beverages are also in the adjustment, not in a hurry, the large consumption sector is definitely the most stable and durable sector of A shares, what we need to do is to layout like a hunter.
Medicine: Continuous adjustment, need time to change space, there are certain structural opportunities.
The trend of the entire pharmaceutical sector is not very ideal, on the one hand, it is the adjustment of the policy side, and another core reason is that the pharmaceutical sector has changed to a certain extent with the dilution of the impact of the epidemic. Especially the adjustment of innovative drugs, at present, is not to kill the valuation, but to kill the logic, from the current dilemma of Hengrui Pharmaceutical, it will take at least 1 year to see the results of new research and development investment, and the new innovative drugs must also accept the test of collection, and the era of profiteering of innovative drugs in the future has ended. The CXO plate will also suffer from collateral negative effects.
Vaccines and testing, although the benefit of the epidemic, the annual performance is guaranteed, and the short-term and medium-term performance certainty is also relatively strong, but the subsequent growth rate will definitely have attenuation, because the base of these 2 years has obviously become larger, it is difficult to have such a large growth rate, which must be soberly realized that it is always necessary to return to normal, so it is necessary to test the growth of other non-epidemic product lines.
Medical devices, which also face the risk of collective procurement, depends on how enterprises respond, which means that the past era of reckless sales and shady transactions has passed.
Technology sector: continue to grind the bottom, short-term need patience, opportunities are waiting out.
In the technology sector, Hikvision XX and Zhuo X Micro have announced the third quarter financial report, which is not ideal, but as the leader of the industry, the growth rate is still good, especially the cash flow and net interest rate are good, and the key is that it is basically invincible in the country. The current continuous adjustment is mainly due to the fact that the hot spots in the market have not yet been transferred, and when the new energy wave is almost over, the advantages of the value depression will come out. Many times the opportunity is waiting for this, and once the position is successfully opened in the bottoming stage, the return often exceeds the benefits brought by chasing hot spots. The technology sector must pay attention to those industry leaders with high net interest rates and cash flow, because this represents market monopoly, super profitability and market pricing power.
Military industry sector: the current adjustment is about to be completed, long-term improvement, strong policy support, appropriate advance layout. 、
Another good news in yesterday's news is that Xi Jinping published at the all-army equipment work conference "Comprehensively create a new situation in the construction of weapons and equipment, and make positive contributions to the realization of the 100-year goal of building the army", which is endorsed by the highest level of the country, which can be said to be the best take-off point of the military industry, and the short-term disk surface has responded, paying attention to the layout of the industry leader, aircraft, alloys, special chips, engines, electronics, capacitors, electromechanical, optoelectronics, special materials, connectors, etc., there are many good opportunities , may wish to combine the third quarter financial report research in the fourth quarter and lay out in advance.
Due to its special mission, the military industry sector is often poor in sustainability in the past market, and there are only 1-2 opportunities a year, but after entering 2010, China's military modernization process is not exaggerated at all, and the navy fleet of 1 country launched in 1 year is only China in the world. Moreover, the trend of dual-use is also becoming more and more obvious, so there has been a great improvement in the sustainability of the market, and there are more structural opportunities, becoming one of the core sectors of A-shares, and it may wish to pay more attention.
The above is today's overall analysis, in general, the market has a certain support at about 3500 points, there is no systemic risk, but the structural risk is higher, the new energy sector should pay attention to the risk, the short-term increase is too large, pay attention to the profit. Most of the other sectors have entered a correction, and the market may enter a short-term haze period, which requires patience. At the same time, the third quarter financial report is coming to an end, and it can be well sorted out and studied to prepare for the follow-up layout.
Last time, a friend hoped to give some excellent analysts in the industry, all of which are very good analyst teams in the industry, especially the in-depth study of the industry is still worth referencing, today to share with you:
Macroeconomics: GF Securities Guo Lei, Zhang Jingjing team
Food and beverage category: Huachuang Securities Dong Guangyang team
Pharmaceutical and biological: Industrial Securities Sun Yuanyuan, Xu Jiaxi team
Home appliances: Changjiang Securities Guan Quansen, Xu Chun team
Electronic: GF Securities Xu Xingjun, Wang Liang team
Computer: Essence Securities Hu Youwen team
Mechanical: GF Securities Luo Libo team
New energy and power equipment: Soochow Securities Zeng Duohong team, Changjiang Securities Wu Bohua team
National Defense and Military Industry: Anxin Securities Feng Fuzhang, Zhang Ao team
Chemical sector: Changjiang Securities Matthew team, Shenwan Hongyuan Xie Jianbin team
Energy Extraction: GF Securities Shen Tao Team
The above is today's sharing, everyone has questions can leave a message to communicate.
【Risk Warning】The above is only a personal opinion, for reference only, and does not constitute investment advice for everyone, according to this operation, at your own risk.
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