Cover news reporter Wang Hui
"The 'double cycle' is not only a simple economic cycle issue, but also involves a new model and pattern for China's future development." Recently, led by Cai Fang, former vice president of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, and jointly written by thirteen experts from the Institute of Economics, the Institute of Finance, the Institute of Agricultural Development and the Institute of World Economics and Politics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, the "Outline of The Double Cycle" was published by the Guangdong People's Publishing House.
Based on the original research results of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, the book not only interprets the important trends in the current national economy for readers, but also deeply analyzes the development logic of China's economy in the next decade.
According to the data of the seventh census, "fewer children and aging" has become the biggest problem facing the current Chinese population, with a decline in the birth rate and an increase in the proportion of the elderly population. Cai Fang, a well-known economist, once predicted that the second inflection point of Chinese will appear between 2025 and 2030, which is the fastest period of China's aging development, when the total population growth will turn from positive to negative, the demographic dividend will disappear, and the potential economic growth rate will decline, profoundly affecting the trend of China's economic development.
Looking back at the national economy in recent years, major changes have taken place in all walks of life involving people's livelihood, from real estate, finance, the Internet to the education industry, and have become social hotspots that the people care about. What kind of development logic does the transformation of these industries follow? What kind of macro policy guidance is behind it? What will happen to these industries in the future?
After in-depth analysis of the current political, economic and social environment at home and abroad, the author puts forward ten key issues about China's economic development, which not only involve macro propositions such as high-level opening up, industrial chain reshaping, financial reform, regional equilibrium, and aging challenges, but also solve solutions to people's livelihood problems such as pension, common prosperity, income distribution, and consumption investment, helping readers jump out of the details of daily life and look at China's economic development trend from a higher perspective.
In the book, the authors focus on the important impact of an aging population. After comparing international experience, he noted that Portugal, Japan, Greece and Italy all tended to oversave after their populations turned into a phase of negative growth.
Excessive saving can lead to insufficient demand. In this regard, Japan can serve as a typical case.
In the process of population transformation, Japan has experienced two demographic turning points, namely the peak of the working-age population and the total population. In the process of the disappearance of the demographic dividend and the decline in the potential growth rate, all walks of life in Japan believe that insufficient demand restricts the growth rate, so since the 1980s, a very strong stimulus policy has been implemented, but it has also caused a huge stock market bubble and a real estate bubble.
Cai Fang pointed out that on the basis of international experience, China can take precautions, make accurate judgments, and effectively respond from various aspects of reform and opening up. For example, optimize fertility policies, enhance the inclusive deployment of fertility policies, promote the fertility rate of the population to a more balanced and sustainable level, and slow down the downward trend of population growth rate;
Starting from the design of pension payment methods and the strengthening of on-the-job training, we will increase the actual labor force participation rate of the elderly, and introduce a timetable and road map for delaying the statutory retirement age;
Establish and improve the policy support system for the cause of respecting the elderly, the pension industry and the development of the elderly service industry, mobilize the resources and enthusiasm of the whole society, and build an age-friendly society.
Under the new development pattern of double circulation, we must firmly grasp the strategic base point of expanding domestic demand, not only to emphasize the basic role of consumption in economic development, to comprehensively promote consumption, but also to expand investment space and maintain reasonable growth of investment. Investment under the new development pattern should meet the requirements of the development concept of high-quality development, and the investment direction is more inclined to solve the outstanding problem of unbalanced and insufficient economic development.
One is "short-term investment", which invests in areas of unbalanced development and promotes the coordination of supply and demand in the national economy, such as the huge demand for investment in the health field caused by the impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, which reflects the shortcomings of China's investment in the field of health and health. Focusing on people's lives and health, huge investment in various aspects such as R&D investment in the medical industry, strengthening the disease monitoring system, and building health information infrastructure is needed.
The other is "upgraded investment", which revolves around the direction of economic modernization and aims to promote economic transformation and upgrading, improve the quality and efficiency of economic growth. Among them, the "upgraded investment" represented by new infrastructure, such as 5G, big data center construction, artificial intelligence infrastructure construction, industrial Internet, UHV field, new energy vehicle charging piles and high-speed rail transit, etc., can drive a total investment of more than 27 trillion yuan during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, which will be a hot spot for China's economic development in the future.
The book is accompanied by 43 detailed charts, using authoritative data to interpret the double cycle strategy in detail, 13 experts multi-dimensional, all-round interpretation of China's development trend in the next decade, analysis of the economic opportunities that ordinary people can seize, is the economist, government officials, entrepreneurs, investors to understand the double cycle strategy and grasp the policy direction of the must-read.
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![Cai Fang led 13 experts to write the "Outline of Double Circulation" to dissect the economic trend in the next decade[fig]](data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAP///wAAACwAAAAAAQABAAACAkQBADs=)