Tao Ye: Under the "double carbon" goal, green finance needs to play the role of an "accelerator"

Achieving carbon peaking, carbon neutrality and economic development is not an antagonistic relationship, but to achieve carbon peaking and carbon neutrality in the process of the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation. This shows that the carbon peak target is not to sacrifice our energy activity level, but more to transform on the structural side, and for now, in addition to wind power and photovoltaics, in the energy field, both within the volume of 5 billion tons of standard coal, the proportion of non-fossil energy can reach more than 60% to 70%, and it can also provide a reasonable economic drive. Therefore, from the dual perspective of economy and energy supply, wind power and photovoltaics are the inevitable choices for us to achieve our future dual-carbon goals. Dr. Tao Ye, Deputy Director of the Renewable Energy Development Center of the Energy Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission, shared the keynote speech of "Increasing Financial Support for the Development of New Energy Industry and Ensuring the Realization of the "Double Carbon" Goal".

The "double carbon" goal does not come at the expense of economic development

Achieving carbon peaking, carbon neutrality and economic development is not an antagonistic relationship, but to achieve carbon peaking and carbon neutrality in the process of the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation. This shows that the carbon peak target is not to sacrifice our energy activity level, but more to transform on the structural side, and for now, in addition to wind power and photovoltaics, in the energy field, both within the volume of 5 billion tons of standard coal, the proportion of non-fossil energy can reach more than 60% to 70%, and it can also provide a reasonable economic drive. Therefore, from the dual perspective of economy and energy supply, wind power and photovoltaics are the inevitable choices for us to achieve our future dual-carbon goals.

The cumulative reduction in carbon emissions per unit of GDP in the three "five-year plan" periods between 2005 and 2020 was 21%, 20% and 19% respectively. The average annual reduction in carbon intensity achieved in the past 15 years is about twice the average annual decline in developed countries such as Europe and the United States in the past 30 years. Whether carbon emission reduction can become a new driving force for economic growth in the future is the key to whether China can successfully achieve carbon neutrality!

At the ninth meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Committee held earlier, three key points were put forward, one is to enhance the policy status of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality, and to incorporate carbon peaking and carbon neutrality into the overall layout of ecological civilization construction; second, the "renewable energy substitution time point" is greatly advanced, and the "14th Five-Year Plan" is used as the starting point for "implementing renewable energy substitution actions"; the third is to clearly propose "building a new generation of power system", that is, "building a new power system with new energy as the main body".

In the context of double carbon, the more important sectors are new energy and electricity, which is beyond doubt. Renewable energy sources such as wind power and photovoltaics have entered the era of parity, and giving full play to the leverage role of green financial support has played an important role in promoting the optimal stock of renewable energy, ensuring increment and promoting development。 Vigorously develop renewable energy is an important measure to ensure the national carbon peak, carbon neutrality target, during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, wind power photovoltaic and other renewable energy will fully enter the stage of subsidy-free parity, according to 2030 the proportion of non-fossil energy in the country will reach 26%, wind power photovoltaic power accounted for no less than 23. 39%, non-hydro renewable energy electricity average annual growth 1. About 4 percentage points, the annual installed capacity of wind power photovoltaics in the country from 2021 to 2030 will be between 10,000 and 125 million kilowatts。 In 2025 and 2030, the cumulative installed capacity of wind power and solar power generation will reach 10.5% respectively. X billion kilowatts and 1.6 billion kilowatts.

The advantages of photovoltaics in the process of carbon reduction are indisputable

From the "double reverse" in 2013 to the current China's photovoltaic industry has become a global dominant industry with communications, high-speed rail, electricity, and go hand in hand, all aspects of the photovoltaic industry chain have been in an absolute leading position in the world, occupying more than 70% of the global market share, which is one of the few domestic strong, international and strong industries with industrialization leading edges in China. The industrial self-sufficiency rate "basically" realizes localization, which is reflected in equipment, parts, raw and auxiliary materials, software systems, standard systems, etc., the best product cost performance in the world, and the production capacity scale of each link is the first in the world.

Technology research and development leads the world. The industrialization technology level of Photovoltaic in China has always led the world, the module power or battery conversion efficiency has broken the world record many times, and various high-efficiency cell technologies have been produced on a large scale in China, and the localization rate of manufacturing equipment has exceeded 95%.

Photovoltaics basically achieve grid parity on the power generation side。 During the "13th Five-Year Plan" period, the prices of silicon wafers, cells and components all fell by more than 50%, and the price of the system fell by 47%. 2.In the 2020 bidding project, Qinghai Hainan Prefecture will be 0. 2427 yuan / kWh (equivalent to 3.46 cents / kWh) is lower than the 2019 Dalat Banner 0. 26 yuan / kWh.In 2020, China's photovoltaics will basically achieve grid parity on the power generation side.

Support the achievement of the "Double Carbon Goal". Photovoltaic power generation has become the most competitive power product in more and more countries. Domestic effective module production capacity plus more than 150GW of new additions, can meet the demand for carbon peaking by 2030, and at the same time lay a solid foundation for achieving carbon neutrality by 2060, and China's photovoltaic industry can provide sufficient guarantees for the average annual installed capacity of 70-90GW during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period. With the carbon peak target of China's solar power generation installed capacity will enter the era of 100GW of annual increase.

In terms of development mode, from the "13th Five-Year Plan" 70-75GW "wind power + photovoltaic" to the "14th Five-Year Plan" of more than 100GW, it means that it is necessary to maintain the development model based on large bases and improve the cross-regional allocation of clean energy, but also to lay out a number of strong local power grids, build local support power sources and emergency security power supplies for important users. Construct a power emergency command system, a large hydropower station safety and emergency management platform。 Build a network security simulation verification environment and network security situational awareness platform for the power industry.

Therefore, in the next 40 years, new energy power generation, advanced energy storage, green zero-carbon buildings, low-carbon transformation of high-energy-consuming enterprises and other fields will add a large number of green investment and financing needs, and financial capital will also be able to play a role in resource allocation and promote industrial development to form a process of integrated development of the entire financial technology industry.

Green finance's support for new energy is becoming increasingly important

The "double carbon" goal requires a comprehensive and systematic transformation of the economy. Green finance needs to act as an "accelerator". Financial markets and financial institutions can give full play to their advantages and strengths in financial integration, resource allocation, risk management and market pricing, jointly build a green financial innovation system, and use financial capital to drive more social capital to invest in carbon emission reduction activities and the development of low-carbon industries, forming a virtuous circle and triangular interaction between finance, science and technology and industry.

At the end of 2020, the balance of green loans in China was about 1. With $8 trillion, the stock of green bonds is about $125 billion, ranking first in the world and second in the world, respectively. Market entities have issued more than 40 carbon-neutral bonds, with a scale of more than $10 billion.

The State Council issued opinions on the implementation of the "Government Work Report" on the division of labor in key work set the action plan for carbon emission peaking by 2030, optimize the industrial structure and access requirements, implement special policies for financial support for green and low-carbon development, and set up emission reduction support tools, led by the Chinese Minmin Bank, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment, etc. are responsible for their duties, and it is expected that relevant policies will be issued before the end of June and will continue to advance during the year.

Green financing tools represented by green credit, green bonds, green insurance, etc. can provide a convenient and efficient financing channel for the renewable energy industry, which will help promote the sustainable and healthy development of the renewable energy industry. It is estimated that by 2030, China's carbon emission reduction will need to invest 2.5% per year. 2 trillion yuan; from 2030 to 2060, it is necessary to invest 3.5 billion yuan per year. 9 trillion yuan (data source: People's Bank of China). Government funds alone are not enough to support the above funding needs, and more social capital needs need to be guided and encouraged to participate. Further mobilize public and private sector funds in a market-oriented manner. Support green economy activities.