【Article/Observer Network Columnist Yang Zhi】
The small river bends around the mountain, and the green mountains hide small buildings. This is the most typical view of the Eifel region in western Germany.
Influenced by the topography of the central German mountains, coupled with the fact that it is in the Temperate and Humid Climate Zone of the Atlantic Ocean, the region is relatively humid, with numerous tributaries flowing into the rhein and maas rivers in the east and west, respectively.
However, this "unique place of tourism and leisure, surrounded by mountains and rivers", was hit by a "sudden" heavy rainstorm that had not been encountered in a hundred years a week ago.
In the blink of an eye, the beauty is gone, the mess is in a mess, the water and electricity are interrupted, the homes are destroyed, hundreds of people are dead, hundreds of people are missing, and many are injured.
The flood is merciless, and there is affection in the world. After the disaster, rescue forces from all over the country (fire, technical rescue organizations, police, the army, churches and volunteers) rushed to the disaster area to help the victims clear obstacles, drainage and decontamination.
Not only the states of Nordrhein-Westfalen and Rheinland-Pfalz are affected, but also in southern Bavaria and eastern Germany, as well as neighbouring countries such as Austria, Belgium and the Netherlands, flooding of varying degrees. In the Hulunbuir and Zhengzhou regions of China, which are far away in East Asia, there have also been quite serious disasters.
CCTV News reported on July 16
The wounded can be healed, but the dead cannot be revived. The aftermath involves all aspects, and the repair of infrastructure takes a long time, and it is difficult to achieve these goals by local forces alone. To this end, the state and federal governments have indicated that they will quickly disburse disaster relief funds and mobilize all parties to coordinate disaster relief efforts.
On Wednesday, the German government approved emergency relief to the disaster areas: two hundred million euros were allocated as a first payment from the federal budget. Affected states will also provide the same amount of money. However, some people also question whether the relief funds will be in place in a timely manner, because some of the relief funds promised by the government during the COVID-19 epidemic have not yet been seen.
In view of the many loopholes in the national prevention and control measures during the NEW CROWN epidemic, after the flood, there were also voices questioning Germany's "disaster early warning system": is this flood just a "natural disaster"? Or does it also include "man-made disasters"?
At the same time, people are also beginning to reflect on the consequences of climate change. Scientists and environmentalists have been ringing alarm bells for years, but the disaster is not yet around the corner, and people can't seem to really pay attention to it.
Relationship with climate change
In the aftermath of a flood, the first thing people and rescuers think about is not necessarily the relationship between natural disasters and climate change, but how to weather the current difficulties. After all, in the case of most interruptions in hydropower communications, the most important thing to solve is how to ensure the needs of basic livelihood.
Victims of the floods who were "destitute" had to wait in line in front of the government to receive an emergency payment of 200 euros per person. Faced with the devastated reality, they are most anxious about the question of "what to do in the future".
Politicians reacted "swiftly": quickly pledged aid, quickly designated climate change as the "culprit" of the disaster. Armin Laschet, governor of North Rhine-Westphalia and federal candidate for the Union Party, and Markus Söder, governor of Bavaria and president of the CSU, said at the first moment that environmental protection is an absolute "top priority".
There is nothing wrong with reminding the importance of environmental protection, but when the victims of the "ruined family" talk about this relatively "abstract" topic, it is inevitable that they will compete with the environmental protection party "Green Party" before the election.
There are also some political parties and politicians who believe that the occurrence of "natural disasters" is more related to nature itself, and it is difficult to artificially prevent or change them. In an interview last weekend, Jörg Meuthen, chairman of the AfD, still found it difficult to prove definitively that changes in nature can be influenced by humans.
In the face of the same black and white Bible or Quran, people will have different understandings and interpretations of different meanings; in the face of various natural phenomena, people may also come to different conclusions.
So, are frequent floods related to climate change? Many scientists answered yes.
Take, for example, the flooding that occurred in the two western German states that has not been encountered in a century:
According to the German Meteorological Agency, the reason why the "downpour" was concentrated in western Germany was because the low pressure area was "wrapped" by the surrounding high pressure area for a period of time (festgefressen), resulting in a large amount of moisture that could not be dispersed, and could only be "solved on the spot". Similarly, if high pressure is "locked" by the surrounding low pressure, high temperatures and droughts occur.
Source: German Media
Peter Hoffmann, an expert at the Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung, points out that warming has had an impact on this "model" phenomenon that has occurred frequently in recent years in two ways: 1) high temperatures cause more water vapor to evaporate, and the humidity of the warming atmosphere increases, resulting in increased rainfall. 2) The phenomenon of "one meteorological stay in one place" that we observed during this flood is caused by the "unevenness" of atmospheric warming, that is, the warming of the poles is higher than that in the equatorial region.
He went on to explain that the temperature difference between the poles and the equator, which was originally very large, is now narrowing as the climate warms, causing the air movement in the so-called "Jetstream" high in the northern hemisphere to slow down, forming a phenomenon of meteorological "stopping and not walking" over a certain area.
In other words, the problem is not that the "weather" (such as rain clouds, etc.) itself, but that it "stays too long" in an area. Therefore, although the total amount of rain in the past few years has not changed much, the frequency of concentrated rainfall has increased. In this case, the likelihood of disasters increases significantly if the topography and soil of the area and the drainage system are not conducive to the rapid absorption and discharge of rainwater, or if insufficient attention is paid to flood discharge facilities in municipal construction, coupled with the poor effectiveness of early warning systems.
It can be seen that climate warming is an important reason for the frequent occurrence of bad weather, and the occurrence of climate warming has been proved to be related to people.
According to Deutsche Welle, a meteorologist at the University of Leipzig, Johannes Quaas said that Germany, as an industrial country, is warming twice as fast as the global level as a whole. This means that Germany is now 20 percent more likely to experience rainy weather than it was in the nineteenth century and 10 percent more likely to occur in Germany than it was forty years ago. "As long as we keep emitting carbon dioxide, we may continue to experience this kind of rainstorm," he said. ”
So, these natural disasters that we are experiencing are the result of a combination of the way of life and the changes in nature.
Questioning germany's disaster warning system
Germany's terrain is high in the south and low in the north, with many rivers, and floods occur from time to time in the main waters (Rhine, Elbe, Main, Moselle, etc.). It can be said that Germany should be a "tried and tested" country in terms of flood control.
So how could the floods in western Germany have caused such heavy damage? Some people have begun to question whether there is a problem with Germany's disaster prevention and control mechanism. German journalists also heard feedback when visiting the disaster area, saying that "no warning was received."
It is normal to review whether there are mechanism problems and human negligence after the fact, but it is not so easy to find the answer.
Germany is a federal state, and many affairs are the responsibility of the federation, the states and local governments separately or jointly, with a division of labor and cooperation, so coordination is very important. For example, disaster prevention and control, emergency relief, disaster handling, citizen protection and other matters are mainly the responsibility of state and local governments, and the federal government will only directly intervene in situations that state and local governments cannot cope with (such as major disasters across regions and states).
At the federal level there is a body dedicated to this task: bundesamt für Bevölkerungsschutz und Katastrophenhilfe . The predecessor of the Bureau was born in the early 1950s, and although it has changed several times, it has basically not left the jurisdiction of the Federal Ministry of the Interior.
On 1 May 2004, the Agency formalized its current name and clarified its integrated coordination management functions in the event of a major disaster. It was founded in two contexts: 1) the 9/11 Attacks on New York in 2001, and the discovery of organizational gaps between the Federation and the Länder during the 2002 Elbe floods.
The official website of the German Federal Civil Protection and Disaster Relief Agency
Institutions established on the basis of reviewing loopholes and deficiencies in practical work should theoretically be more effective in functioning. Faced with various questions after the disaster, the head of the bureau, Armin Schuster, revealed in an interview with German television station ZDF that from last Wednesday (the disaster occurred) to Saturday, his department issued a total of 150 "early warning" messages. Therefore, he believes that the problem is not the shortcomings of the early warning system, but whether the local authorities and the public have sufficient "sensitivity" to deal with these early warning messages.
Schuster's explanation is not entirely without reason. The main problems exposed in this disaster are as follows:
1. There are shortcomings and poor consideration in the aspect of "going up and down".
People receive early warning information mainly through two channels: weather forecasts from meteorological departments and flood information text messages sent by specialized departments. The problem is that many people don't stare at their phones at all times, and disasters often come very quickly.
2. Insensitive to early warning information, lack of professional judgment, and fluke psychology.
Flood warning information is sometimes very specific, but many times it is more "broad", so after receiving such information, the first thing to face is how to "interpret". Even people with professional knowledge may not draw the same conclusions, let alone ordinary people? Who will take the initiative to evacuate unless absolutely necessary? The authorities also have unspeakable grievances, and many people are unwilling to leave their homes, either underestimating the speed and power of the flood or having a great sense of luck.
3. The means of early warning are too single.
Germany does not have a unified alert network that spans the country. Sirens vary in size and channels, and lack a unified federal, state, and local top-down early warning mechanism.
As mentioned earlier, disaster prevention and control is mainly the responsibility of local governments, in order to save money, traditional sirens are basically eliminated or idle. At 11:00 a.m. on September 11 last year, a nationwide siren rehearsal was held for the first time in unified Germany, and it was found that the sirens in many places were either "out of voice" or "out of tune".
It is reported that in the 1980s, there were still 80,000 sirens in Germany, and by 2015, there were only 15,000 left. At present, only a few large and medium-sized cities still have some "effective" traditional alarm systems, such as Aachen, Bonn, Cologne, Dresden, Mainz, etc.
Sascha Lobo, a columnist for Germany's Der Spiegel, called it a "bureaucratic irony of the 21st century" as a combination of "ridiculous door-knocking, blistering partisan politics and deadly self-righteousness."
What's more, floods washed away and washed away grid base stations and lines, and modern early warning systems that rely on the network suddenly failed. Therefore, Director Schuster, who was called "duty without authority" by the media, said that in the future, it is necessary to mix different early warning methods, and pure digital early warning is not safe.
4. The flood is extremely fierce and unable to cope.
This flood came too quickly and too fiercely, and even the best warning system may not work. Take, for example, the "Altenahr" in the hard-hit state of Lepp: due to the terrain, this can be regarded as a traditional "floodplain", so the flood control "hardware" facilities here are not bad. Five years ago, the flood level reached a record level of 3.71 meters, but the impact of the disaster was not very large.
However, the plan cannot catch up with the changes, and people are not as good as the sky. At 8:45 p.m. on Wednesday, the water level in Old Al rushed to a height of 5.76 meters in a very short time, and even reached about 7 meters at midnight, setting a record.
Under such circumstances, even "impregnable" protective facilities (or conventional emergency reinforcement measures, such as removable steel flood walls, etc.) may not be able to resist, and the officials and people can only "look at the water and sigh".
"Prime Minister Loves Rain Boots"
There is a famous saying in China that warns of the relationship between the government and the people: Water can carry a boat, and it can also overturn a boat. In the German context, I am afraid that it is possible to add the phrase "water" can also help in the election.
In 2004, there was a song that quickly became popular on the Internet, the song was called "Mice Love Rice", which said that the love for lovers is like "Rats like rice".
Coincidentally, five years later (2009), Marietta Slomka, the famous newswoman of Deutsche Television 2, published a book called "Kanzler lieben Gummistiefel" (Prime Minister's Rain Boots), subtitled: How Politics Works. The book is about how politicians can use natural disasters to show their ability to govern in order to win hearts and votes.
Sloomka's inspiration for writing this book did not come "out of thin air." In the 2002 federal parliamentary elections, the coalition government of red and green was eager to remain in power, and Prime Minister Gerhard Schröder struggled to re-elect.
Before the election, the major political parties were bound to varying degrees by "intra-party scandals": the CDU's Kohl's "political donation scandal", the SPD's "Cologne garbage dumping plant bribery scandal", the LDP's so-called "leaflet scandal" of Jürgen Möllemann, and the "mileage award scandal" of the Greens and the progenitor of the left party, the PDS.
How to get rid of these negative effects and turn passive into proactive? It became a common problem faced by all parties at that time.
Given the red-green government's gradual roll-out of the "Hartz-Konzept" and "eco-tax" of welfare cuts during its first term, bipartisan support among voters was low, while the election of Edmund Stoiber, the president of the CSU and bavarian governor of Bavaria, was bullish.
In the end, Schroeder narrowly defeated Stoibé and was re-elected.
why? Because Schroeder got two "good cards" before the election: the first was his own, that is, he refused to participate in the "Iraq War" launched by George W. Bush and sacrificed the banner of peace to win the war-weary German voters; the second was given by God, that is, the Central European flood that occurred a month before the election, and Germany's Elbe River Basin belonged to the hardest hit area.
Natural disasters can bring huge losses of human wealth, but they can attract unexpected political "dividends" to politicians. Large-scale "natural and man-made disasters" provide a good opportunity for those in power to show their ability to act, improve cohesion and quickly win the hearts and minds of the people.
Schroeder was a man with an extremely sensitive sense of politics. He immediately took action: put on a raincoat, stepped on the rain boots, rushed to the front line of the fight against the disaster, and made high-profile announcements of emergency measures and relief plans under the spotlight of the media. It is completely the rhythm of "counting the heroes of the storm and looking at the present dynasty".
Schroeder inspects the Elbe disaster area in 2002 (data map/German media)
In fact, his party senior, Helmut Schmidt, was known for his courageous performance in the 1962 Hamburg hurricane. The difference between the two is that Schmidt is really for disaster relief, while Schroeder is for re-election.
Later, whenever there is a flood, politicians can be seen wearing rain boots in the disaster area, and the "gummistiefel-Politik" (rain boot politics) came into being, but it is slightly mocking and derogatory of the "opportunistic" politics.
This year is also an election year, and for the first time in post-war history, there has been a pattern of three parties nominating their own "prime ministerial candidates" at the same time (in the past, there were only two parties). What is even more interesting is that there are more than two months before the election, and God has sent another "card": a flood that has not been encountered in a hundred years.
Judging from the current situation, if there is no accident, the two major factors affecting the outcome of this year's election should be "anti-epidemic" and "disaster relief".
For the performance of various parties and politicians in the fight against the epidemic, the people have been examining for more than a year, I believe there should be a basic judgment, and the rest is whether this "rain boot politics" can work.
It should be said that the three prime ministerial candidates each had some "weaknesses" before the flood:
The Union Party's Laschet struggled to win the party elections this year to become the "prime minister's candidate," but he lacks personal aura, and the poll results have been in a slump for a long time, only recently picking up, and it is not his own credit.
The SPD's Olaf Scholz lost the 2019 party chairmanship competition, but became a "prime ministerial candidate" with his rich political experience and party prestige. The problem is that the SPD's approval rating among voters is just over ten percentage points, and it has long since lost the glory of the Brandt, Schmidt and Schroeder era.
The Greens' Annalena Baerbock, who had been promising, was once high. However, due to personal "mistakes" (beautifying his resume, writing books suspected of plagiarism, etc.), his reputation plummeted, allowing Rashet to reap the benefits.
In the current flood, Laschet "lost his front hoof" when accompanying President Frank-Walter Steinmeier on a visit to the disaster area, and lost a point when the president expressed "heartache" about the situation of the victims. Although he has apologized publicly many times afterwards, this impression has been left behind, and it will definitely affect the election.
Nevertheless, the Coalition party will not "change sides" because of this matter. Although it is very difficult for Rashet to be elected as a candidate for prime minister, since he has been elected, there is no "special" reason for not changing people, not to mention that the effect of changing generals may not be good. After all, political parties consider the interests of the whole.
According to the current electoral situation, this year's competition is mainly between the Coalition party and the Greens, deciding who will become the largest party in parliament. The Greens' Bellport, who has dragged down the Greens' support for personal reasons, may not be able to become the largest party; on the Side of the League, Laschet's smile has a negative impact, but it has not changed the pattern of the Alliance's leadership.
From this point of view, Laschet, the prime ministerial candidate, still has the greatest hope of "finally achieving positive results", and will not break the "prime minister's dream" because of this laughter. But in the end, it depends on the results of the election.
Laschet was filmed laughing in an interview with Steinmeier (Photo/German Media)
Scholz's performance was relatively decent, although he interrupted his vacation at the first time and rushed to the scene of multiple disaster areas to emphasize his determination to provide disaster relief, but he did not seem to wear rain boots, and did not deliberately highlight his identity as a "candidate for prime minister" when speaking, but came to comfort on behalf of the government. This shows his political sophistication.
Although Belpock also immediately interrupted his vacation and went to the disaster area, he did not appear in the media's field of vision. This is obviously not in line with her "competitive" personality, but if she appears in public at this time, it is tantamount to "sitting on" the motive of winning votes. Given her previous mistakes, and perhaps a reminder from within the party, she was very cautious and low-key this time, giving only a radio interview.
epilogue
It is indeed not easy to be a politician: on the one hand, it is necessary to go to the scene quickly to inspect the condolences when a disaster occurs, on the other hand, the speech expression must be in place, can not make mistakes, but also avoid suspicion, can not give voters the feeling that they are putting on a show, and strive for votes.
In this regard, Merkel has done a very "standard": her first inspection did not go to her own laschet-governed region of North Rhine-Westphalia, but to the SPD-run Lepp; the second inspection, she went to the disaster area of North Rhine-Westphalia. This move highlights her image of being close to the people who got rid of "party politics" and cared about the victims in the disaster area.
At present, the disaster situation in Germany is far from over, and the resettlement work has a long way to go. This adds a lot of "variables" to the September election.
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