Text | Mantis Finance (ID: TanglangFin), author | Tu Lin
"When you first arrive, please pay more attention."
This is the CCTV talent show "Let's go online!" Brilliant Junior contestant LingLing (hereinafter referred to as "Ling"), the first Sina Weibo post in May. Subsequently, she will open business almost every month, either sharing her daily life or sending a commercial cooperation with brands such as Tesla and Naixue's tea, which seems to be no different from other contestants.
The difference is that Ling is not a real idol, but a virtual idol synthesized from cg. Unlike the previous "Hertz", who also participated in the draft and was ridiculed, Ling is very close to the real person from the appearance.
But even so, it doesn't seem to be a reason for Ling as an AI to compete with real people on the same stage. Under one of the hottest microblogs about Ling, the views of the top two hot comments are very clear - "do not understand" and "no meaning".
If a single AI idol like Ling is just to create a topic, then iQiyi's two-dimensional idol star-making variety show "Cross-dimensional New Star" that was launched some time ago is completely aimed at the new group of AI idols, because all the contestants in this show are AI.
Some players in the "Cross-Dimensional Nova" section
From "Plume" to "Cross-dimensional Rising Star", why is China suddenly keen to create AI idols? Can virtual idols like Ling really catch fire in China without a two-dimensional cultural foundation?
<h2>Real idols frequently overturn, virtual idols "grab jobs"? </h2>
For iQiyi, pushing virtual idols is "forced by the situation".
From the first year of the domestically recognized draft from 2018 to this year, the "endurance" of the domestic draft market is not strong. iQiyi has successively launched "Youth with You 1, Youth with You 2" since the "Idol Trainee", etc., but whether it is from the popularity of the program or after the formation of the group, the commercial value of the members of the group is not as good as the "Idol Trainee" of the first season.
("Idol trainees" once dominated half of the Weibo hot search list on the night of the group)
A big reason is that the speed of idol cultivation has not kept up with the heat of the market.
Zhang Yixing, who came from the boy band draft, said in a variety show this year that after several rounds of drafts, there are not many idols on the market who can meet the draft standards. After all, if you are tall inside a short man, it is difficult to pull out the next Top Stream like Cai Xukun.
The barrenness of the live market has forced iQiyi, which is "addicted to star-making", to take a different path. So they set their sights on virtual idols. In fact, before the "cross-dimensional rising star", iQiyi also launched a virtual idol label "RiCH BOOM", and announced that the group will continue to be active in music, tide play, variety and other fields.
In addition, virtual idols are more able to maintain the "perfect human design" belonging to idols for such star-making factories.
Recently, the members of the boy band represented by Zhou Zhennan and Huang Minghao have frequently been on the hot search because of "parents are old Lai", not only disappointed fans, but also the brokerage company behind them is more difficult to survive. Once the endorsement stops, the commercial value will be greatly reduced, and the cost of the company's early training will be wasted.
But virtual idols do not have this problem, basically as long as there are no technical bugs, they are much more binding than real idols. Not only are they not afraid of "rolling over", but through AI technology, they can even instantly get new skills that real idols will not be able to.
For example, the virtual idol "Aijia PAI" created by the well-known entertainment company Shanghai Siba Media in 2018 was originally created with reference to the member of the group "Zeng Aijia", but she can not only imitate the "original owner", but also sing Japanese songs that the "original owner" will not. And for a live idol to learn a Japanese song, the time cost behind it is obviously greater than this.
So, why is CCTV?
For the new variety show "Let's go online!" The increase in popularity of "Brilliant Teenagers" is of course one aspect. But more importantly, it may still be at the level of display. One is the LEVEL of AI technology, and the other is the level of National Style. After all, the characteristics of "Ling" such as Dan phoenix eyes, goose egg face, and love of ancient style are very distinct, which is a disguised display of the beauty of Chinese women to the world.
Of course, virtual idols are frequently pushed behind, and in the end, they are inseparable from the drive of interests.
Take Hatsune Mirai, which has become popular from Japan and has spread all over the world, as an example, with the title of "Virtual Singer", it has participated in countless commercial activities, and its net worth has already exceeded 10 billion yuan. And Luo Tianyi, which is modeled on hatsune's future in China, has also received countless endorsements. In May this year, Luo Tianyi even began to live stream goods, driving nearly 2 million people to pay for the interaction.
On the one hand, the economic value of virtual idols has been verified, on the other hand, the number of domestic secondary users is growing. According to iResearch data center data, the scale of secondary users is about 332 million in 2019, and it is expected to exceed 400 million in 2021. And most of this group of people are post-95s who are willing to spend for idols.
When the already validated market meets the just-in-time consumer population, a new capital game begins.
If we look back at the companies behind the "cross-dimensional nova" contestants, we will find that there is not only lehua entertainment company that focuses on star-making, but also "secondary culture" that focuses on virtual IP development and operation. Although they come from different fields, to put it bluntly, they are all running to the economic value behind virtual idols.
In addition, the Xiaoice company that "separated" from Microsoft released 11 AI singers at one time on November 25. According to the official, the training and commercial application of other AI singers takes up to a year, while the Xiaoice framework only takes 45 days. From this perspective, the technical barriers that hinder the commercialization of virtual idols are also slowly being broken.
In short, the commercial market for virtual idols is being opened, but at the same time, the competition is becoming more and more intense.
<h2>Can a virtual idol that can be sung and danced be popular in China? </h2>
Behind the rush of companies competing to enter the game, we may also need some cold thinking: can virtual idols really catch fire in the Chinese market?
It's possible, but it takes time.
First, it is difficult for China to hatch a "top virtual idol".
Hatsune, the originator of virtual idols, can become popular in the future and even become the top stream of Japan, which is inseparable from Japan's huge two-dimensional crowd.
Japan's well-developed anime industry has fostered a mature two-dimensional culture, which has directly increased their acceptance of virtual idols. You know, the early Hatsune Mirai was not actually visualized, but just by singing, Hatsune Mirai still circled a large wave of fans.
In China, although the two-dimensional hobby population is gradually rising, after all, the population base is here, and the two-dimensional culture is almost impossible to become a "national culture" in China. As a result, the audience of virtual idols in China will always be only a small number of people, and there is not much room for future growth.
Further, if virtual idols want to become popular or even truly become the spiritual pillar of a generation, they need content to support them.
Why did One Piece Luffy, Naruto of Naruto, and even Doraemon become idols of a generation? It is precisely because their directors use a wealth of content to help these characters stand up. So even if we know they don't exist, we'll still be inspired by them and even feel like they're "flesh and blood."
But China is clearly still some distance away from Japan in terms of the content shaping of virtual characters. And the Ling mentioned in the opening paragraph, it is actually difficult to establish her idol personality just by virtue of the label of "National Style Girl". Because what we need is an idol with content thickness that can really drive the emotions of fans, not a bunch of data.
Second, virtual idols cannot completely replace real idols.
In fact, from the appearance point of view, Ling is very close to the real person. But even so, there are still comments such as "it looks a little scary" and "it is not a person after all", which means that it is difficult for virtual idols to get rid of the label of "dummy" from the appearance.
More importantly, from an emotional point of view, it is difficult for virtual idols to form a resonance with fans.
For example, many star chasers enjoy the happiness of the so-called "cultivation system", but the premise of its existence is that it is a flesh-and-blood "real person" instead of a bunch of cold "data". The cultivation of virtual idols is more like the training of the engineers behind them, and when the engineers improve, the virtual idols also grow.
And virtual idols can't really "interact" with fans. On the surface, we are browsing Ling's Weibo and watching her business daily life, but in fact, it is not Ling who sends Weibo, but someone in the business team behind it. There are often questions from fans under Ling's Weibo, but it is basically difficult to get a reply.
But real idols are different, they will not only reply, such as Lin Xinxin, a relatively humorous star, and even go down to "scare fans". Virtual idols are technically difficult to accomplish this because they can't think like the human brain.
In fact, if we compare the current top Wang Yibo with the weibo fans of the most famous virtual idol in China, Luo Tianyi, we can also see that the gap between virtual idols and real idols is actually quite large.
Third, virtual idols need to pay a huge cost from birth to popularity.
From the perspective of time cost, It took 6 years for Hatsune Mirai to become popular from birth to popularity, and Luo Tianyi, who was copied out of China's "copying operation", also took a full 4 years under the premise of existing experience to start to be introduced to the market.
On the one hand, with the maturity of technology, the birth time of virtual idols may be shortened, but on the other hand, with the rise of the number of fans, the skills that virtual idols need to master have also extended from traditional singing and dancing to being able to speak paragraphs and interact quickly. This means that virtual idols after the market also need to spend a lot of time learning to improve.
From the perspective of economic cost, according to Liu Yong, the creator of the domestic virtual idol group "Anju", if it is to record a song for 5 people in the team, from finding a team to receive songs, officially recording songs, making up for it, modifying data, and then moving to the screen, it will cost 1 million yuan before and after.
And our top hatsune future, the cost of a special concert has exceeded 20 million.
This is also the reason why after Luo Tianyi, there has not been another virtual idol with greater influence in China for a long time. Because whether from the cost of time or from the economic cost, the price you need to pay if you want to win a virtual idol is too great.
Overall, Luo Tianyi's success in China actually proves that there is a market for virtual idols in China. It is only in the current Chinese market that it still takes time to verify whether the input-output ratio of time and money of virtual idols can meet the needs of capital, and whether the required content thickness can really achieve a breakthrough.
【Titanium Media Author Introduction: Mantis Finance (WeChat ID: TanglangFin): Pan Finance New Media. Focus on: new business (including live broadcast, short video and other large entertainment), new marketing, new consumption (including new retail), listed companies, new finance (including financial technology), blockchain and other fields. 】