The capital market "digs the pool" and prepares to meet new forces

Financial Investment News commentator Liu Ke

Regardless of whether Shanghai's "hundred suites brother" is speculating tenants or the developer's hoarded inventory, the one-time sale of hundreds of suites at this point in time is still very newsworthy and has certain exploration significance.

Analyze a set of data first and speak with facts.

As of September, our M2 (broad money volume) has exceeded 234 trillion yuan, an increase of 8.3% year-on-year, even taking into account factors such as foreign exchange accounting for money, M2's substantial growth over the years is obvious to all. Classical market economics holds that the more money is issued, the higher the asset price, or the more liquidity there is in the pool.

From the global situation, if the currency is issued too much, it is difficult to effectively amplify the demand at the consumer end, which will generally cause the price of goods to rise and cause inflation.

The United States can use the dollar to spend globally, and it is the exception. But our M2 has grown so much, why hasn't it triggered hyperinflation?

The reason is also very simple, it is consumed by the huge pool of funds, and this huge pool of funds is the real estate market.

At present, the total market value of China's real estate market has reached 300 trillion yuan to 400 trillion yuan, which is very much; Of course, China has a population of more than 1.4 billion, and can use urbanization to slowly digest the stock of the real estate market, which is unique in the world.

However, this kind of long-term precipitation of liquidity in a pool of funds is a hidden danger, and eventually it will encounter a storage ceiling, such as a sharp decline in the demographic dividend, a decline in the growth rate of urbanization construction, etc., so we need another pool to divert liquidity.

As far as the current situation is concerned, the three children have been liberalized, the issue of demographic dividend has no longer been debated, the urbanization in developed areas has been quite mature, and although there is still room for urbanization in underdeveloped areas, it has encountered unfavorable factors such as population migration to developed areas, and the growth rate will not be as fast as before.

As a result, we see that there are many factors of policy change in the current real estate market.

So, the question is, how to create a new pool of funds?

From the experience of economically developed countries, the ratio of the market value of the real estate market to the capital market is basically 1:1, so that in fact, the prosperity of the real manufacturing industry can be realized and the sustainable development of the economy can be promoted, after all, a big country with a real estate market does not necessarily become an economic power.

What is the total market value of A-shares? about 80 trillion yuan, that is, about 1/4 of the real estate market. Considering the Chinese base and the space for urbanization construction, it may be difficult to achieve a 1:1 ratio between the capital market and the real estate market, but it is still possible to properly divert part of the real estate market funds to the capital market and achieve 1:3 or even 1:2.

In this way, the bubble in the real estate market can be effectively reduced, the capital market can get financial assistance, and the M2 that continues to grow can also find a place to settle.

In fact, in order to effectively channel liquidity, China's capital market is "digging the pool", such as the construction of multi-level capital markets, the reform of the registration system, etc., which are the institutional construction of these "digging pools", all of which are digging the pool a little bigger and digging deeper, so as to attract more liquidity to flow in step by step.

You know, even if the real estate market overflows 10% of the funds, it is tens of trillions, and the pool is too small to accommodate.

Of course, some people feel that this statement is unreliable, because real estate regulation has been so long, what should overflow has overflowed, why is it now? The answer is to find out for yourself, only one point: the real estate tax is a long-term tax policy that is paid once a year.

Judging from the situation of capital migration, it also needs a process, the construction of the capital market system needs a process, and the transfer of funds also needs a process of re-understanding by the whole society. Just like twenty or thirty years ago, when the real estate market reform was carried out, many people also needed a process of understanding, those who knew early, benefited a lot, and those who understood late did not benefit much.