Joy is too short to be optimistic

Joy is too short to be optimistic!

The night is short! Such a wonderful holiday, how to say that it is gone! For the holiday, there are 2 scenes, one is to suddenly understand a sentence, "always on the road, always tearful", the first half of the sentence is a long-distance traffic jam, the second half of the sentence is every time to refresh the navigation; the other scene is that the holiday is not only last night's wine, but also the night before and the big eve!

In the future, the upstream resources are currently rising sharply, but they cannot be transmitted to the downstream. Export products lack premiums, and domestic consumption is not smooth. High inflation weak economy, if you do not cut the RRR and cut interest rates, once the interest rate rises, then it will enter the stagflation cycle! If interest rates are cut, low interest rates in the weak economy favor growth stocks.

In the era of long-term high prices, Moutai prices in 2015-2021 have been re-recognized as the core contradictions of the market. The price of thermal coal in 2020-202X has been re-recognized as the core contradiction of the market! Inflation from house prices will come to an end! But the price increase brought about by the energy revolution has only just begun!

Upstream, talk one by one, Ren'er a few ways to come, I only go all the way! China's economy has entered a stagflation structure, although the price collapse of the second master brother this year saved the cpi, but the state will never let the price of electricity rise, in other words, it will always be passive to follow the rise in coal prices and will not rise greater than coal, the price increase to reach the willingness of thermal power enterprises to generate electricity is reasonable, thermal power stocks will not go too far.

And the large state-owned enterprises with resource card necks, central enterprises will definitely be revalued, such as China General Nuclear Power, China Aluminum, China Petroleum, Sinopec, etc., with the change of the assessment indicators of central enterprises and the gradual reflection of in vitro profits in the table, there will be a certain growth stock + resource stock nature, the formation of long logic, unfortunately hindsight is too late, now the stage can only be unconscious!

On the surface, the business is getting more and more difficult to do, in fact, this industry is becoming more and more professional, it seems to be shuffling, in fact, it is washing people, and what can really stay must be a group of people who adhere to quality, real materials, and do practical things.

This wave of cycle gold panning, the last remaining must be the management of the winning enterprise, a round of supply side, a round of management ability test.

After talking about upstream consumption, the data will not be false, this year's eleven small long holiday national hotel bookings present a situation of "multi-city, multi-place and multi-point flowering", but from the current domestic high-end hotel bookings, this year's eleven small holiday during the hotel bookings are not as good as last year,

This is 70% of the same period last year. Consumption power can not do fake, the number of travelers can increase, but the per capita consumption amount is getting worse!

To sum up, it is now that the fundamentals are good, the valuation is not expensive, the short-term increase in the stock price is not small, the profit plate is huge, the fundamentals are good, it has been sideways for a while, most of the valuations are very expensive, the valuation is cheap, the stock price is not much, most of them are fundamental flaws, and the global economic recovery has entered the end, inflation will continue to be high, TAPER has not yet begun, and in the case of overseas may be lower than expected, the domestic economy is still in a continuous downturn, and even do not rule out accelerating the downward trend, And the currency does not dare to be too loose. So it becomes that the economy needs to be relaxed, but from the perspective of inflation, it needs to be tightened, and there are signs of stagnation around the world.

Don't dare to be optimistic!

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