I believe that many people have been affected by the cold wave of the previous few days to the south, some time ago, the cold air south caused the temperature to plummet in many places in the south, because the cooling came too suddenly, so that many cities on the subway are mothball smell, the reason is because of the dust in the wardrobe in the autumn and winter clothes, there is no time to wash and dry.
In fact, just a few days after the great cooling of the country, China's National Climate Center released the latest news:
Since July, the equatorial Middle East Pacific SST has continued to decline, and it is expected to enter La Niña state in October, forming a weak to moderate intensity La Niña event in the winter.
According to current forecasts, the la Niña incident this autumn and winter is almost a foregone conclusion. The more profound impact of the La Niña event on our country is that it may lead to low winter temperatures in our country.
According to the National Climate Center, the temperature in the north and other areas this winter may be lower than in the same period of previous years, and even extreme weather may occur.
In addition, under the influence of La Niña, New York, the United States, may usher in a rare snowstorm. U.S. expert Bob Larson said New York City had averaged 29.8 inches (0.75 m) of snow in previous years, but this year's forecast will be as high as 32 inches (0.81 m).
This means that the appearance of La Niña may lead to cold weather in many places.
However, today, the temperature in many parts of southern China has not continued to decline, but has begun to warm up again. Students living in the south should be able to clearly feel the warmth of the noon of these two days, and even some dry and hot feeling. Especially in Guangdong, Fujian and other places, the temperature in many places exceeded 29 degrees Celsius, and the highest reached 29.7 degrees Celsius.
So the question is, mingming forecasts that there will be extreme weather this winter, and now why is it heating up again? Did the La Niña incident fail?
<h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" data-track="8" > La Niña and winter temperatures</h1>
La Niña phenomenon refers to the phenomenon of cold water with a wide range of cold waters with abnormal surface temperature in the equatorial Middle East Pacific Ocean, and the intensity and duration of the sea have reached certain conditions.
Under normal circumstances, La Niña events and El Niño events will take turns every few years, but from August 2020 to March 2021, there has been a moderate intensity La Niña event in the equatorial Middle East Pacific region, but according to forecasts, This October will enter la Niña state, and this winter will form a weak to moderate la Niña event again, which means that 2021 has encountered two rounds of La Niña events, so this year is another "double La Niña year".
When the La Niña event occurs, it will have a certain impact on the global climate, which may lead to less rainfall near the coast of South America, more rainfall in Indonesia and eastern Australia, drought in central Africa and southeastern America, and other places in central Africa and southeastern America, in addition to the low winter temperature in China.
This is because when la Niña occurred, it would make East Asian winter winds stronger than in previous years, making it easier for cold air to move south.
<h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" data-track="13" > warm winter or cold winter</h1>
In fact, not all La Niña events will lead to low winter temperatures in our country. Of the 15 La Niña events since 1951, 10 of them have had low winter temperatures in China and belonged to the cold winter; 5 La Niña have high annual temperatures and belong to warm winters.
This is actually because, in the context of global warming, there are many factors that affect china's winter temperature, such as: the melting of Arctic sea ice, changes in Eurasian snow and the sea temperature of other seas. Moreover, China's territory is vast and the climate problem is more complex.
On the other hand, warm winter and cold winter are actually a whole concept, and extreme weather may occur in warm winters and warm weather in cold winters. It is a warm winter for the south, and it can also be a cold winter for the north.
For example, there was a La Niña incident from August 2020 to March 2021, but China's National Climate Center confirmed that this winter is actually a warm winter.
The reason why it is judged to be a warm winter is because the national average temperature in the winter of 2020 is -2.5 °C, which is 0.8 °C higher than the same period of the year (-3.3 °C).
Although the winter of 2020 is a warm winter, the temperature in the northeast and Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia and other places is lower than the same period in previous years, and 2020 is actually a cold winter for these places.
(Warm tones represent warmer tones, cool tones represent cooler tones)
In addition, although the winter of this year was a warm winter, we also encountered extreme cold weather in the warm winter, especially the cold wave in early January last year, which caused a historic low temperature in most parts of the country.
According to statistics: on January 6-8, 2020, the minimum temperature of more than 50 national meteorological observation stations in Beijing, Hebei, Shandong, Shanxi and other provinces (cities) reached or broke the lowest record since the establishment of the station.
(Winter 2020 staged a big reversal of cold and warm)
It can be seen that it is very difficult to predict whether China's winter will be a cold winter or a warm winter this year, and it is meaningless, because even if it is a warm winter, there may be severe cold weather; even if it is a cold winter, there will be hotter weather.
<h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" data-track="25" > why are temperatures rising now? </h1>
Although the formation of la Niña this year is certain, and the cold air has indeed moved south many times, this does not mean that there will be cold weather in the following days.
In fact, the low temperature in the south a few days ago, on the one hand, was affected by the cold air going south, resulting in a sharp cooling; on the other hand, it was also related to the cloud cluster hovering over the south of China, which led to a large amount of solar light being reflected back into space by the clouds, making it difficult to illuminate the surface of the earth.
Nowadays, there is no new round of cold air going south, coupled with the clear sky in many places, which means that the sun's rays can directly hit the ground, so that the temperature in many places has risen.
#La Niña ##This winter will form the La Niña Event##2021 will be the year of the double La Niña ##极端天气 #