Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Monday retracted his threat to deport 10 Western ambassadors on October 25, citing their statement in support of imprisoned philanthropist Osman Kavala, AFP reported on Oct. 25.
But the week-long stalemate underscores the growing uncertainty surrounding Turkey's relationship with its closest allies in the 19 years erdogan took power.
Here is an analysis of the main points of Turkey's recent quarrels with some of its most important trading partners.
Who is Kavala?
Erdogan accused the Paris-born businessman and philanthropist of trying to destabilize Turkey.
Kavala, 64, has been in custody since October 2017 but has not been convicted. He was initially accused of funding a nationwide anti-government demonstration in Turkey in 2013. But the allegations have since gradually increased and now include espionage and a role in the 2016 attempted coup against Erdogan.
Analysts say heightened tensions between Western governments and Ankara threaten to lower his chances of release, as any release would be seen as Erdogan's weakness.
Why now?
Last week, 10 ambassadors issued a rare joint statement calling for a speedy resolution of the legal proceedings in Kavala, sparking an escalation of tensions.
Erdogan said this was unprecedented interference by foreign powers in Turkey's internal affairs. But Erdogan's critics argue that the Turkish leader is using the statement to provoke a crisis that diverts attention from the country's growing economic woes.
Inflation in Turkey has soared by nearly 20 percent, and the exchange rate of the Turkish currency, the lira, has plummeted. The investigation suggests Erdogan could lose the next presidential election, which must be held by June 2023.
"Erdogan is using the populist playbook to divert attention from the real problems facing Turkey today." Hasney Abidhi, a professor of international relations at the University of Geneva, said.
But the pro-government Newspaper Aurora blamed the escalation on Western ambassadors who, like the Colonial Governor, demanded Kavala's release.
What's at stake?
The expulsion would create a huge rift within NATO's military alliance and potentially bring Turkey closer to Russia.
The dispute comes on the eve of the G20 summit in Rome next weekend, when Erdogan is expected to meet with U.S. President Joe Biden, who has publicly criticized the Turkish leader's human rights record.
Relations between the two countries have been further strained as the United States imposed sanctions on an Ankara side for purchasing a Russian missile defense system in 2019.
Turkey was also kicked out of the F-35 program.
Ankara has been hoping that the United States will return the $1.4 billion it spent on the project.
Turkey also hopes that some of the funds will be compensated through the delivery of the less advanced F-16 fighter jets by the United States.
But Russia is negotiating the delivery of a second batch of S-400 missile defense systems to Turkey, which will make Washington tougher on Ankara.
What are the economic risks?
Turkey's economy has been a major victim of diplomatic tensions, and foreign investment is now well below the level at the time of Erdogan's rise to power.
The call for Kavala's release was signed by the ambassadors of Germany, Ankara's closest trading partner, and the Netherlands, which accounted for more than 15 percent of Turkey's investment last year.
Six of the signatories are from EU member states, and Turkey has been negotiating for eu accession for much of the past 20 years.
The EU absorbed more than 41 percent of Turkey's exports, while 33.4 percent of Turkey's imports last year came from the EU.
The fragile economy poses political risks to Erdogan.
Source: Reference News Network