Wang Liang, director of the equity research department of Minsheng and Bank of China: The impact of real estate radiation is difficult to avoid, and the target of abundant liquidity is still the stock market

Financial Associated Press (Shanghai, reporter Han Li) news, housing enterprises banking tightening, the market risk aversion is high, the future economic trend can still have a bottom? After the relatively stable "Golden Nine Silver Ten", which sectors can still have structural opportunities?

Recently, Wang Liang, director of the equity research department of Minsheng and Bank of China, said in an interview with the Financial Associated Press that the impact of real estate is inevitable in the future, but the overall domestic liquidity is still relatively loose, and some sectors will still maintain long-term prosperity, such as medicine, consumption, clean energy and high-end manufacturing.

Real estate will correct deviations, but not reversals

"I think the challenges next year are not small." Wang Liang pointed out in anticipation of next year's market: "As the entire epidemic slowly begins to end, the global excess liquidity begins to recover. ”

Recently, due to the "three red lines", "double concentration" and global liquidity crunch, the DOLLAR bonds of some South China real estate companies have plummeted, and some have triggered technical debt defaults. Wang Liang believes that although the continuous high pressure on the real estate market will be corrected to a certain extent, it is not a reversal, which is an unavoidable problem of economic fundamentals.

However, Wang Liang also believes that the domestic market is not lacking in positive factors, such as the trend of liquidity shifting to the capital market.

"Domestic liquidity is still relatively abundant overall, because the domestic currency tightens faster than overseas." He said, "Another point, in fact, from the perspective of large assets, the transfer to stocks is still a big trend, because now there is indeed a lot of money, and it is not very likely to take real estate as the first priority, so the liquidity will be better." ”

At the level of specific investment, Wang Liang is more optimistic about the long-term sectors that can maintain prosperity, including sectors that are in line with future trends and have shifted production capacity to China.

"For example, like the CXO in medicine", Wang Liang gave an example: "For example, some of the more core demand areas in the consumer industry, such as pharmaceutical services, etc., if there is a short-term adjustment, we feel that it is a very good opportunity." There are also some areas of home appliance tradition, the valuation is also more reasonable, and we will continue to allocate it. ”

"A lot of companies are in their early ten-fold lead, and we're confident we'll make ROE money," he says.

Focus on four major sectors

As for which sectors are optimistic about in the future, Wang Liang explained the four major directions of his main investment, including pharmaceuticals, consumption, clean energy and high-end manufacturing.

"The first major asset is medicine, because we believe that in the long run, the aging of the entire population will bring about a rapid growth in health care spending, which we believe will be a long-term trend." He said.

As a long-term positive correlation with medicine, Wang Liang believes that when the overall resident income increases, consumption upgrading will be a long-term trend, in this process, brand value and income scale will show long-term positive feedback, so it is optimistic about the long-term potential of the consumer sector.

For the clean energy industry that has been "wind" and "light" for a whole year, Wang Liang believes that there is still a relatively large room for improvement in this sector in the long term.

"We still believe that in fact, the entire domestic and global, the entire energy structure has indeed undergone fundamental changes, from the traditional petrochemical energy to the power energy, especially the clean power energy, I believe this trend is the trend of the times."

For the high-end manufacturing industry, Wang Liang believes that in the future, companies that can form a strong competitiveness in the global supply chain system, or companies that have completed import substitution in China, will appear in large quantities in the high-end manufacturing sector.

"After the slow development of the past ten or twenty years, many industries and enterprises have reached a critical point through continuous improvement, such as some enterprises in the field of home appliances, such as some machinery, such as manufacturing in the military industry, midstream manufacturing, we believe that we have reached such a domestic alternative or even slowly began to increase the share of overseas such a process."

In addition, on the micro stock selection, Wang Liang suggested that the prosperity of the subdivision industry is still different; in addition, the changes in the competitive pattern and core competitiveness in the industry, or the mistakes of the company's own strategic layout, will weaken the position of micro enterprises in the boom industry. He will also revisit the company's core barriers.

Tap into new spending opportunities

Recently, economic indicators such as the scale of social financing and total consumer retail sales have fallen short of expectations. As a benchmark for A-share consumption, the liquor industry has shown a significant wide range shock pattern. Choice data shows that the CSI liquor index has fallen by 2.13% this year, and the maximum retracement range was once close to 35%.

For the liquor sector, Wang Liang believes that the concentration of liquor brands has been improving, and more and more companies have begun to fall behind and have begun to concentrate on a small number of very strong brands.

Wang Liang also took a beer company in recent years to break the siege as an example: "You can see that originally everyone was fighting a price war together, the lower the price of whoever is better, but you will find that this year there is a hit of a beer company, not a low price, the price is very high, and then the volume expands very quickly, and it may even reach a million tons next year, which is a very large single product, so we feel that in the traditional field, these new changes are actually worthy of our attention." ”

In addition to liquor, what other segments of the consumer sector are worthy of long-term investment? Most investors are confused about this.

Wang Liang believes that with the decline in residents' income, the intensification of population aging, the overall debt ratio peaking, coupled with the slowdown in the regularity of consumption growth after the economy tends to mature, the tendency to drink, buy clothes and other traditional optional consumption will be reduced, if these industries do not follow the changes of the times, they will eventually lose.

However, this does not mean that consumption is not optimistic. Wang Liang believes that with the changes in life, the public's consumption habits will also be iteratively upgraded, and new consumption will have new highlights, such as the rise of takeaway, the growth of semi-finished products and prefabricated vegetable enterprises, and this change in consumption habits brought about by the change in the pace of life will stimulate the rapid development of some industries.

"We're going to allocate assets like some quick-frozen food, or some assets like a central kitchen," he said.