Source of this article: Time Weekly Author: Yu Peiqi
"I used to say, 'If you have money or no money, go home for the New Year.'" This year, for safety reasons, I chose to celebrate the New Year in place, which is actually convenient for normal work after the holiday. On February 4, Chen Fang (pseudonym), who had just attended the company's online annual meeting, cancelled the ticket originally scheduled for the 29th of the Year from Shenzhen to her hometown of Shenyang.
After quitting the booking software, Chen Fang clicked on her mother's WeChat chat page, and while repeatedly listening to the instructions of the "Northeast Powder Sausage" method sent by her mother, she chopped pork filling, adjusted starch paste, washed casings, etc. step by step.
"It doesn't matter if you celebrate the New Year on the spot, you can't forget the taste of the Year." Yesterday I saw that the price of pork in the downstairs vegetable market has recently been reduced, so I bought some meat and wanted to make some powder sausage to relieve hunger. Chen Fang said.
Under the normalization of epidemic prevention and control, "non-essential return to the hometown, local New Year" has become a new initiative in various places. As the year draws to a close, there are still many Chen Fangs who choose to be stationed at their workplaces. At this time, stabilizing the "vegetable basket" and ensuring the stability of pig prices and the balance of supply and demand during the Spring Festival holiday have become one of the keys to the people's livelihood work of "local New Year" in various places.
Industry insiders believe that due to the positive impact of the continuous supply of frozen meat reserves, the surge in pork imports and the good recovery of domestic pig production capacity, pig prices fell during the Spring Festival. With the gradual release of pig output in the later period and the significant decline in post-holiday demand, the annual pig price may open a downward channel.
On February 4, Wang Zuli, an associate researcher at the Institute of Agricultural Economics and Development of the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences and the chief expert of the pig industry monitoring and early warning of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, analyzed to the Times Weekly reporter that with the continuous recovery of early production, the number of commercial pigs that can be released in the market will continue to increase in the future, the market supply will gradually increase, and the supply side will gradually improve.
"Second Master Brother" batch Spring Festival
Entering December 2020, driven by the peak season of pork consumption, pork prices have risen in a wave, and the retail price of pork (lean meat) in supermarkets and bazaars in 36 large and medium-sized cities has risen from 27.5 yuan / kg to 30.36 yuan / kg on January 21, 2021.
At present, the end of the year has arrived, the Tide of Spring Festival has risen, and the "second master brother" has been on the road in batches to relieve the pressure of pig prices. Shanxi Securities Research Report pointed out that initiatives such as the local New Year have affected the heat of terminal consumption and exerted certain downward pressure on pork prices.
On February 2, the China Merchants Reserve Commodity Management Center issued an announcement announcing that it will carry out the 8th and 9th batches of 30,000 tons of central reserve frozen pork on February 4 and 9.
Local reserve meat is mainly sold directly to the public at terminal outlets such as supermarkets and affordable stores, and the price is usually lower than the market price. For example, Jiangsu Province put chilled fresh meat slightly below the market price at 113 sales networks in 13 districted cities in the province; the price of lean meat in Wuhan City was 15.5 yuan / kg, and the price of frozen pork in Zibo City was 19.9 yuan / kg, both lower than the price of fresh meat on the market.
According to the data, since the first batch of 20,000 tons of central reserve frozen pork was released on December 17, 2020, as of January 28, 2021, the China Commercial Reserve Commodity Management Center has organized 7 batches of central reserve frozen pork to be released, with a cumulative listing volume of 180,000 tons, and the transaction situation is good.
According to incomplete statistics, as of now, Hohhot City of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, Jinan City, Qingdao City, Zibo City, Weifang City of Shandong Province, Zhengzhou City of Henan Province, Jiangsu Province and Nantong City, Yangzhou City, Gansu Province and Lanzhou City, Longnan City, Ningxia Autonomous Region and Yinchuan City, Guizhou Province, Hubei Province Wuhan City, Yunnan Province And other places have started to launch.
With the joint release of national and local reserve meat, pork prices stabilized and fell slightly in late January. The data shows that on February 2, the average price of lean meat in large and medium-sized cities was 29.96 yuan / catty, down 1.3% from the 10th and down 12% year-on-year.
The National Development and Reform Commission said, "At present, a large number of frozen pork to be released from the central reserve has been 'on the road', there will be more places to put reserve meat before the Spring Festival, and it will continue to be released after the Spring Festival to the 'two sessions' period to continue to ensure market supply, and pork prices may continue to slowly decline." ”
On February 4, after visiting a medium-sized farmers' market in Guangzhou, a reporter from The Times Weekly found that near the Spring Festival, citizens have opened the "hoarding" mode and purchased a lot of fresh vegetables and vegetables in batches.
Li Hong (pseudonym), a vendor who has long been responsible for slaughtering and selling pork, told the Times Weekly reporter that the number of customers who have recently purchased pork has increased a lot. "But this is relative to the situation of the previous year, before (2020) because the price of pork is too expensive, many young people do not like to buy pork, instead of eating vegetables and eating fish, business is not good." Li Hong said.
When asked about the change in pig prices, Li Hong said that compared with the price of lean meat at the end of 2020 of 36 yuan / catty, this figure has dropped to about 32 yuan / catty in mid-January this year. "Now (lean meat) sells for only 30 yuan a pound, and fat and lean pork sells for 26 yuan and 27 yuan." Li Hong told the Times Weekly reporter.
Pig prices may fall back at high levels
During the Spring Festival, the demand is strong, the price increase, the willingness of farmers to go out of the barn is relatively stable, and the central reserve frozen pork has been successively released to various places, the supply tension has eased, and the price of pork has fallen and stabilized in the short term.
"The release of reserve meat shows the central government's concern for the consumption of meat for the people's Spring Festival, but can the release of 60,000 tons of reserve frozen meat reduce the price of pork?" It should be said that the effect is there, but the timeliness of the decline in pig prices caused by this single factor may be shorter. On February 4, Tan Ying, an economic expert of the pig innovation team of guangdong province's modern industrial system and deputy dean of the School of Economics and Management of South China Agricultural University, told the Times Weekly reporter.
Tan Ying said that China's pork consumption is huge, about 50 million tons / year, the above 60,000 tons of delivery account for the domestic pork consumption market is negligible, from the perspective of consumption channels, the sales of hot fresh meat-based farmers market is still dominant, and the release of reserve frozen meat is mainly in supermarkets, affordable stores and other terminal online stores directly for the public. Therefore, if only from the perspective of the release of reserve meat, it will only push down the spot price of pork in the short term, so that consumers can buy affordable pork for the New Year.
In addition to the release of reserve frozen meat, the recent domestic pig production capacity has been close to normal levels, and the recovery progress has exceeded expectations.
The data shows that at the end of 2020, the national pig inventory was 406.5 million heads, an increase of 96.1 million heads over the end of the previous year, an increase of 31.0% year-on-year, and recovered to 92.1% at the end of 2017. Among them, the breeding sow stock was 41.61 million heads, an increase of 10.81 million heads over the end of the previous year, an increase of 35.1% year-on-year, and recovered to 93.1% at the end of 2017.
Wang Zuli believes that considering the recent increase in the difficulty of port delivery, the listing of imported frozen meat has encountered obstacles and more stocks, if the new crown pneumonia epidemic stabilizes after the holiday, the circulation order of imported frozen pork is smoothly restored, and the market supply may further increase.
"In addition, consumers have concentrated on purchasing before the Spring Festival, and the purchase demand of the pork market in the late Spring Festival will drop significantly, and there may be a significant decline in pig prices, and the overall change in pig prices in 2021 will be in a trend downward channel." Wang Zuli told the Times Weekly reporter.
Tan Ying believes that even if the pork market reaches a balance between supply and demand in the later period and the price of pork falls further, it is still difficult to recover to the same as before African swine fever.
"At present, the related industries have not yet been scaled and intensive, the production efficiency, specialization and management level are low, and the cost of feed and labor has increased significantly, resulting in a large increase in domestic pig production and breeding costs, and the overall industry has entered an era of high costs." Therefore, pig prices will still stabilize in the high range. Tan Ying told the Times Weekly reporter.