Source: China National Defense Daily
According to Japanese media reports, Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party recently announced the "Regime Convention" for the new stage of governance, systematically expounding a number of policies to be implemented. These include significantly strengthening defense capabilities and increasing the share of defense spending in GDP to more than 2 per cent. This policy has aroused widespread concern in public opinion inside and outside Japan.
The customary red line is facing a taut
Japan's defense expenditure does not exceed 1 per cent of gdp for a long time. After the formation of the Self-Defense Forces in 1954, concerns about the "unlimited expansion of defense spending" were widespread inside and outside Japan, and a cap was discussed. In 1976, takeo Miki's cabinet formally decided that defense spending would not exceed 1% of GDP. In 1987, Yasuhiro Nakasone's cabinet lifted the 1% framework limit and proposed to "respect the spirit of the 1% framework restriction." Although the official restriction of 1% has been lifted, Japan still adheres to the customary red line of 1% due to many reasons such as history and public opinion.
After the LDP came to power, successive cabinets generally abided by the practice. In the past 10 years, Japan's defense costs have increased for 9 consecutive years, and the red line of 1% has touched the top grid, and the Japanese defense circles have begun to discuss whether to break through the restrictions. The ruling party's inclusion of a proposal to double the defense budget in the supporting documents of its governing platform shows that the issue has risen from a discussion under the table to a proposal for official documents.
Beginning with Shinzo Abe's cabinet, the LDP has continued to pave the way for defense spending to break through the conventional red line. It has repeatedly highlighted and exaggerated the threat of peripheral security in an attempt to channel domestic public opinion and clearly defined the 1% conventional red line as the "informal spending ceiling". The defense budget for the past two years has been calculated strictly proportionally, and the actual limit has exceeded the 1% limit. The Japanese defense community wants to use this to create established facts and prepare public opinion for a major breakthrough in the future.
The usual trick is to seek a breakthrough
The 2 percent target reportedly is not to include the LDP's main manual, but a document containing hundreds of potential proposals. The reason for this is the LDP's usual tactics to prevent excessive stimulation of public opinion. All along, When manipulating issues involving breaking through the restrictions of the post-war order, Japan has always taken the means of releasing information to test public opinion. If public opinion reacts strongly, it will be returned to the same place in order to plot later. Wait for public opinion to temporarily calm down, and achieve a breakthrough in the policy framework through the way of "retreating two into three". After public opinion has completely calmed down, practical measures have been taken "in accordance with laws and regulations." This method has been used in the past in terms of amending the Act on the Self-Defense Forces and granting the Self-Defense Forces the right to collective self-defense.
At present, Japan is trying to rebuild the economy hit hard by the COVID-19 pandemic, and the economic foundation for doubling defense costs is not yet solid. Economic and people's livelihood issues are currently priority issues, and it is difficult for public opinion to accept this proposal. In addition, the Komeito Party in the ruling coalition has been openly critical of a significant increase in defense spending.
Although it is not a good opportunity to discuss the doubling of defense costs at the current time node, there is still a lot of room for maneuver in the future.
First, the United States actively supports it. As Japan's military ally, in recent years, due to the needs of its military layout in the Asia-Pacific region, the United States has encouraged Japan to enhance its military capabilities, and has constantly demanded that Japan increase defense spending and assume more alliance responsibilities.
Second, the degree of consensus within the party is high. Under the long-term management of Japan's conservative politicians, the LDP has a solid foundation for consensus on issues such as breaking through the shackles of the post-war order and building a military power. Political forces such as the ruling komeito party and the opposition constitutional democratic party have become increasingly weak in containing the LDP.
The third is to promote the military industrial system. Most of Japan's domestic defense equipment companies have old chaebol backgrounds, which are inseparable from the political arena, and a significant increase in defense costs is one of the topics that the military industry system has been public relations operations.
On the issue of raising defense costs, Japan has been planning for a long time, and once the plan is put into practical action, it will indicate that Japan is in fact violating the "Peace Constitution", and the relevant movements deserve the vigilance of all parties. (Wen Wei into)