Thorsten Schäfer-Gümbel, vice-president of the German Social Democratic Party (SPD), is a surging journalist
This week, the fate of Germany and Europe as a whole may face an important turning point and test – whether the German government can form a grand coalition government or will be forced to re-elect. More than two months ago, the German election, which was thought to be full of suspense, now seems to have become confusing.
"In Germany we often say that the dish is not as hot as when it first comes out of the pan. But to say that the German election lacked suspense at the outset was not what we felt from within." Thorsten Schäfer-Gümbel, vice-president of the German Social Democratic Party Federal, recently used a German saying in an interview with www.thepaper.cn to describe his views on the current situation and his outlook for the future. As a core member of the SPD, Schaefer has been vice chairman of the SPD since 2013, and he is also the chairman of the SPD and the chairman of the state parliament caucus in Hesse, Germany.
This week, the SPD may play a central role in this turnaround in Germany. On the 4th, Schultz, chairman of the German Social Democratic Party Federal Committee, planned to convene a meeting of the Federal Bureau of the Social Democratic Party, which had previously decided to be an opposition party, and the attitude of the Social Democratic Party to form a grand coalition government was relaxed, and expressed its willingness to discuss with the Coalition Party led by German Chancellor Angela Merkel. On the 7th, the SPD will formally decide at the National Party Congress held on the same day whether to agree to dialogue with the Coalition Party on the formation of a coalition government.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel said as early as November 20 that it would be better to re-elect rather than form a minority government in the future. So now it seems that joining forces with the SPD again to form a majority grand coalition government seems to be the lowest-cost option. According to a poll conducted on November 22-27 by the Aarensbach Institute, Germany's leading political polling agency, 54 percent of the population believes That Germany has entered a difficult situation. The European Observer Network (EUobserver) also did not shy away from saying in the headline of the report that the dialogue would be a test of Germany's stability.
Germany remains in a stable state
In an exclusive interview with The Paper, stability is a point that Schaefer constantly emphasizes.
"Although it is very difficult to form a cabinet after the election, Germany is still in a very stable state, and the current cabinet has a caretaker role, can continue to effectively perform government functions, and can theoretically continue until the next election." No one has to worry about Germany's inability to act because of this situation, unlike many other countries, the German economy is growing steadily, and there is a very low unemployment rate and high fiscal revenue, which makes the country very stable. Schaefer said lightly.
"Don't make the mistake of thinking that Germany seems to be in a state of anarchy, I want to emphasize that this is not the case, Germany has a well-functioning government and a well-functioning parliament, so there should be no unnecessary concerns." Schaefer said. "I don't feel pressured to have time right now."
However, after the results of the German election on September 24 this year, Merkel's Union Party received an 8% drop in the vote from five years ago, and the SPD as a member of the ruling coalition received only the lowest 20.5% of the vote since World War II. Schultz immediately announced that he was determined to play the role of an opposition party.
Commenting on the decision at the time, Schaefer said, "Compared with the last general election, the SPD lost about 1/5 of the voters. It is precisely because of this loss that we cannot do strategy without making new changes as in the past. And you may also be concerned that in the German political arena after the election, both the left and the right have been strengthened. In fact, there is a very clear reason for this, (the SPD and the Alliance Party) as big parties, are the mainstream parties and the main political opinions of the formation, if they have been cooperating, it makes the two parties less able to show their own characteristics, which is likely to lead to a stronger left or right wing. ”
"For that reason, if you want to discourage the growth trend of the left or the right, you have to show your own characteristics," Schaefer pointed out. As the SPD, our strategy in the future is to be more bold and clear, so that people can see our own political views. ”
Can the SPD step forward to turn the tide?
However, the situation surprised everyone, including the SPD. After the SPD declared itself an opposition party, Merkel immediately launched tentative negotiations with the Liberal Democrats and the Greens to form a "Jamaica Alliance" cabinet. However, on November 19, LDP Chairman Lindner said the LDP withdrew from the cabinet negotiations because the parties had failed to build mutual trust. This also announced the failure of the first attempt of the new government to form a cabinet.
"Trust is probably the biggest reason for the breakdown of the negotiations, and there is probably a lack of trust between the LDP and the Coalition Party. Another reason is that there are different considerations about what path Germany is taking, and the topic may not have been discussed enough in the past. Schaefer said.
Just after the collapse of the Jamaica Coalition talks, many voices were once again concerned about whether the Coalition party and the SPD could once again form a governing coalition, however, Schultz once again stressed the SPD's determination to become an opposition party on November 19. And just after German President Steinmeier met merkel and Schultz separately, the intention of communication began to appear. On November 24, the SPD federal secretary-general Haier said in an interview that the top party leaders, including Schultz, held eight hours of talks. The SPD has decided that in order to defuse the political crisis, the SPD will not refuse to engage in dialogue with other parties.
Schaefer also participated in the talks at that time, "The main reason why we have come to this step today is that the people in this cabinet have not been able to form. We ourselves feel a responsibility at such a time — including possibilities beyond the grand coalition (government) that we are willing to pave the way for. ”
In the early morning of December 1, Steinmeier once again convened Merkel, Schultz and others to discuss the feasibility of forming a cabinet. However, after 135 minutes of meetings, there was no major breakthrough in the negotiations. Schultz himself also came forward to say that the negotiations did not mean that the SPD had given the "green light" to the grand coalition government, and that there was still much to be discussed between the two sides in the future. Spratly German Foreign Minister Gabriel also said the SPD would not make a decision anytime soon.
No one can answer the timetable for the cabinet negotiations of the future grand coalition government, including the vice-chairman of the Social Democratic Party, Schaefer, who has even reported that the negotiations will not start until next year at the earliest. "The question of negotiation time is very difficult to answer. It is certain that in the future cooperation between the SPD and the CDU CSU (CDU), there will certainly be no form like the previous government, and there will be some changes. Fisher said.
Similarly, the cabinet negotiations of the grand coalition government have also encountered a lot of resistance. Xinhua News Agency pointed out in a previous report that at the meeting on November 30, the positions of the two sides of the talks were significantly different, and the negotiations were bound to be difficult. According to a local European news network reported on December 2, the younger faction of the SPD also issued a petition online against the formation of a grand coalition government, saying that this would not bring benefits to the SPD.
According to a latest poll by The German newspaper Bild, while about half of German voters want to see a grand coalition government form a successful government, only 22 percent say they will support them, while more than a third of voters want to reconvene.
European policy became the focus of negotiations
As for the possible future negotiations, Schaefer said, "There are several aspects that must be discussed in the future, one is European policy, education policy, social security and labor market policy, and tax policy and investment. In fact, in the end, the purpose is to see how the country will maintain its own unity in the future, and at the same time have the possibilities and opportunities for future development. ”
As Schaefer said, EU policy will be the focus of negotiations. Because the EU itself is indeed a direct stakeholder in the success of the German cabinet formation, it even plays an influence on the process of forming the cabinet.
Previously, the European Union whether to ban the use of "glyphosate", a herbicide, has also involved Negotiations in Germany. According to Xinhua News Agency reported on November 27, EU member states voted to approve the European Commission's decision to extend the license for glyphosate application for 5 years on the same day, and Germany, which had abstained in the first round, voted in favor of the European Commission's decision to extend this time.
However, this time, The Minister of Agriculture Schmidt from the Coalition Party, CSU, voted in favour of the Environment Minister Hendricks from the SPD, without consulting with the Prime Minister or the Prime Minister's Office, and was accused of violating the federal government's rule of procedure that "when different branches of government disagree, they all abstain". This has angered other parties, especially the SPD, which they see as a serious blow to the basis of mutual trust.
And will Germany's current difficulties in forming a cabinet undermine its role in the EU in the future? In response, Schaefer said, "As far as the future development of Europe is concerned, Germany's position is unlikely to be weakened by the cabinet negotiations, because Germany's role and status are constructed by other factors." But I think the EU itself still has the ability to operate, so it has made some progress during the german cabinet negotiations. ”
Even so, Germany, or Merkel herself, who is trapped in domestic politics, does have very little initiative to speak out on EU affairs at the moment. By contrast, French President Emmanuel Macron of neighboring France has been very active, spending more than two hours in a speech at the Sorbonne university in October about his EU reform ideas.
According to German media reports on the 3rd, Schultz himself also disclosed that Macron has repeatedly taken the initiative to call or text messages to urge him to quickly form a grand coalition government with Merkel. Schultz, a former president of the European Parliament, has many things in common with Macron on the issue of European integration, and on November 30 he publicly expressed his support for Macron's idea of creating an EU-wide finance minister. Previously, some German experts said in an interview with the surging news that if a grand coalition government can finally be established, it will be a "blessing in disguise" for Germany and the European Union.
"Germany is one of the biggest beneficiaries of European integration," Schaefer said. In addition to the movement of people, another balancing mechanism within the EU as a whole is fiscal transfer, with slightly richer countries and regions transferring their incomes to poor areas to help development, but from a mechanism point of view, the EU is not particularly satisfactory. ”
Schaefer concluded by noting, "Macron has his ideas, and he proposed the co-finance minister's proposal in this context, but as for how to manage it, what the specific functions are needs to be further discussed." As far as the role of Germany and France in European integration is concerned, it is a good thing that the French have come up with a lot of new ideas, and as far as Germany is concerned, it needs to consider how it can keep up. ”