Over the past week, we've stepped on almost all of the hot just-in-demand sectors.
After consulting with intermediary stores and analyzing various data, we found a very surprising fact:
Hangzhou's just need plate, must be trampled!
The stampede was thrilling, even surpassing 2018.
At that time, although the property market experienced a "sharp turn" and "volume and price fell together", the transaction volume was generally good and relatively stable.
This time the situation is very different, many just need plates not only the price fell more miserably, the transaction volume has almost become a "luxury".
In September, the residential transaction volume in Hangzhou was only 3784 sets, of which about 70% was just needed below 3 million, and only more than 2600 sets were traded, a new low of 19 months!
The cold of the property market is far more serious than we think, the volume and price are falling together, the market is dismal, there is no minimum, only lower!
Investors who have "entered the pit" now have only one in mind: "live".
This scene is very similar to the new Netfli drama that has recently become popular around the world, the squid game.
Those gamers who fight wits and courage in order to survive, and even "kill each other", are not those investors who just need to step on the plate and escape?
In reality, this stampede is manifested in:
1, the volume and price fell together;
2. The mood of the city bank is pessimistic and low, and buyers continue to wait and see;
3. With the sharp decrease in the amount of viewing, the number of listings has increased significantly, remaining high.
Taking the typical sand as an example, not only has the price fallen miserably recently, but the transaction volume is almost frozen, and many investors who can't hold back are competing to "cut meat" to leave.
Most of the just-needed plates, such as Dajiangdong, Linping, Jiubao, and Xianlin, have also undergone trampling to varying degrees.
The "squid game" of Hangzhou's property market is being staged.
The game has already begun, and the "Big Brother" has been fighting a price war for several months.
First of all, the school district is not guaranteed. For example, Jingran Jiayuan, at the beginning of the year, many were still in the 3-character head, but the recent transaction price has fallen all the way to about 23,000 / flat head, and the listing volume remains high.
Then there are the previous large traders Mengqin Bay, Haitian City, Jianghehai and other subway disks, the transaction is pitiful; The East County Star, Shuiyun City and other large communities directly hang eggs in September.
The market was in mourning.
Even the only improved Jinsha Lake plate in Xiasha was tragically "sitting continuously", with The Lanshan Mountain falling to more than 30,000, and the left bank of the lake and DXN Morning City had zero transactions.
What is even more frightening is that the auction houses that were once rushed to be sold are also completely weak, and they are all sold below the appraisal price.
Poly East Bay is more ruthless, the starting price is lower than the appraisal price of 1.5 million, and the unit price is only 19,000 / flat. Could have "picked up the big leak", but it was also shot, which was amazing!
From school district houses, subway plates to auction houses, the collapse is thrilling.
The lower sand is really miserable, but the great Jiangdong is even more miserable.
According to the data on the purchase of houses at hand, the transaction activity of the entire Qiantang District in Dajiangdong is counted down in Hangzhou.
Longrun City quality crotch, the largest decline, and the potential listing of nearly 100 sets, few houses;
Although Jiang Andcheng occupies the C position, it is still inevitable that some "bamboo shoot plates" in the early 20,000s will run one after another;
In addition, the quality benchmark like East Lake City is also not good, at the beginning of the year also stabilized to break 3, the latest set of small apartment unit price is only about 22,600 / flat, equivalent to a 7.5 discount.
Sunshine City, Zhigao Qiantang Yipin, Dajiang Star and other September trading volume is also directly hanging eggs.
Expectations are getting lower, emotions are getting colder, and the stampede is continuing.
At present, the "delivery tide" has not yet fully arrived, and the situation may become more serious when new projects such as Sunac City, Huayangli and Chaotangxuan are delivered.
This kind of chill, even in the core area, even if the sky street comes, is powerless to return to the sky, which makes me fall into meditation.
However, Qiantang District is still only the "tip of the iceberg".
"Iron just needs" Linping, from September began to deal and take the look at the volume also began to fall off a cliff, the average price gradually "lost", back to the "1 word head".
Jiafeng Wanyue City and Canal Liyuan listed a staggering 130 sets and 58 sets, Donghui Longyue Bay, China Railway Yidu prices fell back to 16,000-18,000 / flat;
The green capital of Donglan Mansion, Gongchen Bund, Binqin Apartment, Huating Jiayuan, there is a subway is not good, the market fatigue is revealed.
An intermediary brother revealed: "The biggest problem now is that the number of landlords who ship and reduce prices is still increasing, but it is becoming more and more difficult to invite to see the house, and the store manager has recently been under a lot of pressure, and the cigarettes are smoked one after another." ”
Also under pressure are the intermediary friends of Jiubao and Weike.
Nine Forts has been "self-consciously beautiful" for so many years, just rose and lost, and returned to the curse of 30,000+.
The recent bamboo shoot plates of Weike have also increased sharply.
The "three brothers" went from the highest 70,000 to 80,000 / flat, all the way to 50,000 + / flat;
The listing price of the Xixi Mansion in the "stampede hard-hit area" is close to the waist, which vividly pulls the price of an improvement plate to just need.
Recently, the intermediary is selling the small apartment of the Ying Platform, with a total price of only 3.9 million, and the unit price is only 45,000 / flat;
The Longhu Famous Scenic Terrace in Dingqiao recently sold a set of 88-square small apartments, with a total price of 3.8 million, and a unit price of about 43,000 yuan / flat.
Unke ≈ Ding Bridge?
Although this equatorial sign is a bit exaggerated, it is also inconsistent with the actual average price data;
But in less than half a year, the weike property market is indeed like a change of world.
Affected by the trampling of the unke, the second-hand houses in Xianlin and Old Yuhang have also ushered in a wave of price cuts.
The average price of Xixihai fell from the high point of 40,000 +/m2 to the early 30,000; Taoyuan Town and Xianhu City once again let us see the "kind and familiar" idle forest in the early 20,000s.
Renhe, a high-quality sub-new house "desert", even if there is a good north extension of Line 10 and Hangde Intercity, the price, belt and transaction are still "slide".
Coupled with the brief cessation of "blood supply" in the three major centers of Hangzhou, other plates that are greatly affected by spillover are also generally "weak and weak".
Within a radius of 30 kilometers in the central ring of Hangzhou and the center of the city, most of the plates just needed are in doom.
The east of the river, across the river, far from the core area, and at the very edge of the east of the city, is blocked by layers on the outside, and the interior is seriously divided, and the spillover effect is difficult to highlight;
Moreover, the permanent population of the entire Dajiangdong is only about 250,000, and the maturity of industrial positioning and urban construction development is not high, and once it is cold, confidence is more likely to be frustrated.
Xiasha is slightly better, but on the southeast side of Xiasha is the Zhijiang Tiangrain, to the west is jinsha lake west and the "East African Rift Valley" nine forts of the property market, and to the north is Haining and Linping Qiaosi Farm;
It is not so much "accessible in all directions" as it is more like "an isolated island" hanging in the east of the city;
Moreover, the housing in Xiasha School District has been hollowed out, qiantang science city is basically still in the planning stage, and the development takes time, but not every investor has patience and risk tolerance.
The biggest shortcoming of Linping is the lack of high-end industries, and the problems of "intestinal obstruction", plate faults and rail transit networking have not yet been fundamentally solved.
Bottle kiln, Xianlin, Yiqiao, Xinjie and other more typical spillover plates, the industry is weak or in the initial stage of development, the subway has not yet been opened or the planning has not yet been settled, education, commerce, transportation, medical care, environment and other supporting facilities also need to be upgraded...
It always feels like a few "breaths" are still so bad.
However, there will be exceptions to individual just-needed sectors.
A few plates such as Sandun North, Liangzhu Gouzhuang, Harvest Lake, Xiaoshan Science and Technology City, and Dingqiao are still trying to support. The transaction price has not fallen sharply, and there has not been a large-scale stampede at present.
Under the big market, the water rises and the ship rises for surprisingly similar reasons; and when the property market experiences wind and frost, it is up to the ability to survive.
Sandun north and south adjacent to Shenhua, west to Weike, the main city halo, industry, university scientific research institutions blessing;
Gouzhuang seamlessly connects to the main city, is the sub-center of the north of the city, has policy blessings, and the subway is like a tiger;
Harvest Lake is the "marriage" of Linping and Shangcheng, the goal is to create an upgraded version of Qianjiang New Town; coupled with the landing of Longhu Sky Street, the future is full of imagination;
Yanlord and Sunac create improved products in Xiaoshan Science and Technology City, and the future industrial focus of Xiaoshan is also here;
With the golden combination of "Line 3 + Tianjie + Peach Blossom Lake + Gaoting Mountain Scenic Area", Dingqiao constantly throws off the burden of "just need" and "modern shantytown" and develops towards improvement.
Westlake University
North of the city CBD
Harvest Lake
Halo Dream Center
Longhu Dingqiao Sky Street
It has also experienced the "strictest in history" purchase restriction of the just demand plate, but the fate is completely different.
This also gives us some enlightenment: since we can't change the general environment, we may as well choose a microclimate.
First of all, even if it is just needed, it is necessary to take into account the investment attributes within our own ability and choose high-quality sectors. Those who tell you that "you live by yourself and don't sell anyway" are hooligans.
The first house is really important, don't trust the "first buy apartment, old and broken" or something, can you buy a red plate in one step or pick up the leaky second-hand is not fragrant?
Keep in mind that not all "low-priced" just-needed sectors and low-priced products are worth brainless entry. What you think of as a "housing price depression" may just be an abyss for the property market.
"Low prices in the suburbs, large room for appreciation"? Selling mouths, deceitful ghosts.
There are also those who have been advising those who need to read the bottom in July and August, and they should also be careful, either stupid or bad.
Secondly, after experiencing this year's big ups and downs, it is Qianxin, Century City, Shenhua, Qiaoxi, these high-end and improvement plates, and finally it is easier to stabilize, which is completely different from the need to "rise slowly, fall fast" and "asset scale is too small".
Those locations, products, and supporting facilities are general, and the "weak chickens" that have no imagination space just need plates, and they are more likely to be trampled on in the cycle of the property market.
Hangzhou's "one core and nine stars" plan, the core will always be only one, "nine stars" has a cake that can never be finished.
Scarce things are more expensive. The allocation of bulk core assets should still return to the core area of the main city, advance to high-quality plates, and aim at quality benchmarks in order to cross multiple cycles.
The "squid game" in the property market is far from over, and only by remaining calm and sober can we have the opportunity to "live" all the time.