The Paper's reporter Xie Ruiqiang
From test-firing cruise missiles to new tactical missiles, North Korea has signaled to the U.S. Biden administration through escalating missile tests.
According to a report by KCNA on March 26, the DPRK Academy for National Defense conducted two new tactical missile test launches on the 25th, and Lee Byung-chol, member of the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the Workers' Party of Korea, and staff of the Workers' Party's Ministry of Munitions Industry and the National Defense Science Research Department gave guidance to the test launches.
This is the first time north Korea has tested a ballistic missile since the Biden administration took office. Ballistic missiles have attracted much attention because they violate the UNITED Nations Security Council's sanctions resolutions against north Korea regardless of their range.
Test firing of new tactical missiles. Image source of this article: KCNA
For the first time, the performance of the new tactical missile has been further improved
According to the report, the new tactical missile launched this time is based on the original tactical missile technology, and the warhead weight reaches 2.5 tons. The two new tactical missiles launched in the test carried out precision strikes on targets set by North Korea at 600 kilometers of water in the East China Sea, and were a complete success.
According to the monitoring of the ROK military, the DPRK missile launch activities were carried out at 7:6 a.m. and 7:25 a.m. on the 25th, and the DPRK launched short-range missiles into the eastern sea area along Hamju in South Hamgyong Province. The aircraft has a range of about 450 kilometers and an altitude of about 60 kilometers.
This is the second time in a year since North Korea announced the launch of "super-large multiple rocket launchers" on March 29 last year, and it is also the first time that North Korea has tested a ballistic missile since the Biden administration came to power.
According to North Korean officials, the new tactical missiles tested this time are based on the original tactical missile technology. Judging from official photos released by North Korea, the missile made its debut at the eighth national congress parade of the Workers' Party of Korea in January this year.
The missile uses a 5-axle launcher, while the model that has not been improved (which south Korean and U.S. intelligence agencies named the KN-23) uses a 4-axle launcher. KN-23 missiles can carry two missiles per launcher, and North Korea has conducted several test launches.
"In terms of shape and size, the 5-axis launch improved missile has a more rounded body, an increased length, and a longer range." Missile expert Li Wensheng analyzed.
"The focus of the improvement of the new tactical missile is to enhance the throwing capability, and the 2.5-ton warhead means that the DPRK has reinforced facilities such as the underground command room and the fortified machine fort against the DPRK and the United States," said Han Dong, a military expert, who pointed out in an analysis. ”
KN-23 missiles can carry two missiles per launcher, and North Korea has conducted several test launches.
If the weight of the missile warhead is reduced, the range of the missile can be increased. "The new tactical missile uses solid rocket engines and high-mobility launchers, which is a good platform for expansion, on the basis of which North Korea can develop weapons such as medium-range anti-ship ballistic missiles and hypersonic missiles, and gradually replace liquid ballistic missiles with long reaction times before, such as 'Mars'-7, 'Mars'-9', and improve North Korea's missile strike capabilities as a whole." Han Dong told the surging news (www.thepaper.cn).
North Korea's supreme leader, Kim Jong-un, revealed for the first time in his summary report at the Eighth Congress of the Workers' Party of Korea on January 9 that North Korea has made progress in multi-warhead technology and hypersonic missile technology. The report pointed out that the development and research project of different warheads for various combat missions, such as hypersonic gliding flight warheads of new ballistic rockets, is now preparing to enter the trial production stage. ”
In addition to multi-warhead technology, hypersonic warheads can also improve penetration capabilities, thereby improving the reliability of nuclear deterrence, and North Korea is not expected to conduct research in this area." This technology can be applied not only for nuclear missiles, but also for conventional missiles. Zhao Tong, a researcher at the Carnegie-Tsinghua Center for Global Policy, previously told The Paper.
The test launch of the new tactical missile followed the test firing of a short-range cruise missile.
According to Yonhap News Agency, North Korea fired two short-range cruise missiles into the western waters of the peninsula on March 21. Since the UN Security Council resolution only prohibits North Korea from launching ballistic missiles, launching cruise missiles does not violate the resolution.
Unlike ballistic missiles, cruise missiles use jet engines, subsonic cruise missiles fly at a speed of only Mach 0.8 to 0.9, and cruise missiles fly as low as possible to avoid radar detection. North Korea fired several short-range cruise missiles from The city of Mooncheon, Gangwon Province, on April 14 last year into the eastern waters of the peninsula.
North Korea previously demonstrated its new anti-ship cruise missile for the first time at a 2017 military parade. Britain's "Jane's Defense Weekly" published an analysis at the time that the new shore-based missile displayed at the North Korean military parade in April of that year was a replica of the Russian Kh-35 missile, with a missile range of more than 150 kilometers. Each launcher is equipped with 4 round launchers, which are modified from the chassis of the "Pegasus" series tanks.
The new tactical missile made its debut at the eighth national congress of the Workers' Party of Korea in January this year, using a 5-axle launcher.
The KN-23 ballistic missile, which North Korea demonstrated last October, uses a 4-axle launcher.
Gradually escalate, increase the pressure on the United States
For the Dprk's test firing of ballistic missiles on the 25th, the South Korean and US governments have not responded, only at the military level. South Korean and U.S. intelligence departments said on the 25th that they are closely analyzing specific specifications and parameters. South Korea's Joint Staff Headquarters said the ROK military is closely monitoring the DPRK's movements and maintaining a high degree of vigilance.
Japan's response was swift and intense. The Japanese government held an emergency national security meeting at the prime minister's residence on the same day, attended by Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga, Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi, and Defense Minister Nobuo Kishi, at which they discussed information related to north Korean test firing and future countermeasures.
Suga said on the 25th: "The DPRK has just launched two ballistic missiles, which is the first launch of a ballistic missile since March 29 last year, which poses a threat to the peace and security of our country and the region, which violates UN resolutions." We strongly protest and condemn that. He also said that Japan will work closely with relevant countries such as the United States and South Korea to protect the safety of its citizens.
The US government responded to the DPRK's test launch of cruise missiles on the 23rd. US President Joe Biden said on the 23rd when talking about the launch of cruise missiles by the DPRK: "We understand that nothing has changed. Asked by the media if he thought it was a provocation, Biden replied: "No, according to the Department of Defense, everything is business as usual, and there is nothing new about what they are doing." ”
Two senior U.S. government officials told U.S. media that the U.S. side did not consider North Korea's test firing to be a "major provocation" but a "normal military activity." "It is not in the best interests of the United States to hype this up, and we believe that the test launch is part of normal tensions on the Korean Peninsula." The two officials added that North Korea's missile tests would not close the "door" to future U.S. engagement with it, but Biden's strategy for dealing with North Korea would revolve around consultations with allies and partners in the region, particularly with Japan and South Korea.
North Korea's anti-ship cruise missiles previously demonstrated at the military parade.
Li Chunfu, deputy director of the Center for Asian Studies at Nankai University, believes that the two missile tests are the implementation of the DPRK's policy of "strong against strong and good against good" in the eighth report of the DPRK. The ROK-US joint command post exercise in the first half of the year ended on 18 November, and the "2 + 2" talks between the ROK and US foreign ministers and defense ministers have just ended, and the test missile is a response to the ROK-US exercise.
"From military parades to cruise missile tests to ballistic missiles, the escalating test launches are also a signal to the Biden administration to change its attitude and engage in dialogue with North Korea, and to start a dialogue after abandoning hostile policies."
Choe Sun-hee, first vice minister of the DPRK Ministry of Foreign Affairs, said on the 17th that as long as the United States does not cancel its hostile policy toward the DPRK, the DPRK will not engage in any form of contact and dialogue with the United States, and the DPRK will continue to ignore the will of the United States to contact the DPRK.
Choi confirmed that the United States has tried to reach out to North Korea through multiple channels since mid-February. "After the new US administration took office, all that came out was the crazy 'North Korea threat theory' old tune. The U.S. military continues to intensify its military threats and openly conduct aggressive U.S.-South Korean joint military exercises against North Korea. ”
"Malaysia's extradition of North Korean citizens to the United States and then the severance of diplomatic relations between north and Malaysia shows that North Korea does not want Biden to continue the 'strategic patience' policy of the Obama era," Lee pointed out. ”
The "strategic patience" of the Obama administration meant that the United States put pressure on North Korea through economic sanctions and patiently waited for the isolated North Korea to slowly undergo internal disintegration and eventual collapse. At present, the Biden administration's policy evaluation of North Korea has entered the "final stage", and next week, the United States plans to discuss the results of the evaluation with Japan and South Korea at the White House.
The Biden team has previously revealed that Biden's policy toward North Korea is different from the "top-down" of the Trump era and different from the "bottom-up" of the Obama era.
"The DPRK has made it clear to the outside world that the DPRK will escalate its military operations according to the development of the situation, and that in the future the DPRK may carry out test firing of medium- and long-range or even intercontinental missiles. Li Chunfu thinks.
North Korea's new intercontinental missile demonstrated a launcher larger than the Hwasong-15 missile launcher.
Air Force Gen. Glen VanHerck, commander of the U.S. Northern Command, said on March 16 that North Korea could test fire its newly emerging intercontinental ballistic missile "in the near future," a move that would significantly exacerbate tensions between North Korea and the United States, Reuters reported on March 17.
On October 10 last year, North Korea held a military parade in Pyongyang to celebrate the 75th anniversary of the Founding of the Workers' Party, which for the first time demonstrated a new type of intercontinental ballistic missile using an 11-axle launcher, which is larger in size than north Korea's previously announced Hwasong-15 intercontinental missile.
Kim Jong-un also mentioned the missile in the eighth report, saying that "the giant missile carried by the 11-axis self-propelled launcher vehicle fully demonstrates the highest performance and strike capability achieved by China's nuclear forces." ”
Park Won-kun, a professor at the Department of Korean Studies at Ewha Womans University in South Korea, believes that the DPRK maintains its rule through the eight major party congresses to maintain its rule, and in the future, the focus will shift from "inside" to "outside", and after this low-intensity action, it will gradually increase the pressure on the United States.
Editor-in-Charge: Li Yiqing